Consensus Offsides: AI Innovations, BOJ Policy, and Fed Strategy

This episode kicks off with the question of whether market consensus is still off track regarding developments in AI, the Bank of Japan’s policy stance, and the Federal Reserve’s strategy. Key highlights include insights from NVIDIA’s GTC event—featuring breakthroughs like the Blackwell Ultra AI processor and AI-native wireless networks—contrasted with its declining stock performance. The discussion moves to the BOJ’s decision to maintain its target rate amidst hints at future rate hikes, and the Fed’s expected steady rate policy amid persistent inflation pressures. Additionally, the podcast covers portfolio strategies for navigating a risk-off, inflationary regime, supported by various quantitative models and market signals, and concludes with an analysis of risks, opportunities, and a client question about potential market support should the Fed pause its balance sheet runoff.