Could AI Be a Good Leader?

Aaron and Spencer ask A. Todd Howard, MetLife Investment Management's Head of Fixed Income - EMEA and a former Army Black Hawk pilot, whether an AI could ever be a good leader. His answer turns on accountability, soft information, and why commitment only counts when it costs something. Spencer opens this episode with thirty years of history. He and Todd Howard met as cadets, colliding on the sprint football field at West Point. They flew Black Hawks together as sister platoon leaders at Fort Bragg, then deployed to Bosnia. In the decades since, they have been close friends that help keep each other accountable. After the Army, Todd earned an MBA at Auburn and the CFA designation, and built a twenty-year career in fixed income that now has him leading MetLife Investment Management's fixed income business in EMEA from London. The conversation starts with a translation between his two careers. The helicopter pilot who has planned well stays in front of the aircraft, so navigation and radio calls never set him back. The portfolio manager does the same thing with information, anticipating the sequence of events, breaking the world into chunks where his team has a competitive advantage, and synthesizing more input than any one person could hold. Todd is candid that managing informational input, and knowing when it is biased, has become the hardest part of modern life, for portfolio managers and for parents alike. From there the episode turns to developing people. Todd's approach to younger teammates is to empower and then challenge, giving them rope, real problems with lead time, and commander's intent rather than an answer key. He makes the case for patience, noting that he did not start in investment management until he was 32, and argues that leaders who delegate development to HR undermine the very trust they are trying to build, because people notice quickly what their leaders' choices actually prioritize. The AI thread runs through the whole conversation and sharpens as it goes. Aaron argues that AI cannot lead because leadership is an act of creation under ambiguity, and the fuzziness in how humans imagine the future is precisely what the models lack. The three of them work through soft information, the kind of character judgment a regional banker makes across a table, and through whether AI helps leaders frame trade-offs. Todd brings a portfolio manager's eye to the AI CapEx cycle, laying out why the day is coming when CFOs ask what all that spending actually returned. Then Aaron asks the question the episode is named for by inviting Todd to imagine an AI as his boss. Todd's answer arrives immediately. He would know it is fake. The accountability you feel toward a person, the friend already outside your door for the morning run, cannot be manufactured by something you know has nothing at stake. Spencer names the underlying economics as the currency of commitment, valuable precisely because it is costly, and Aaron traces the question back to Adam Smith's Theory of Moral Sentiments. Todd's parting advice is the most basic leadership principle that people do not actually do: lead by example, staying in it with your people regardless of rank or title, so they see your commitment rather than hear about it. Mentioned in this episode Yuval Noah Harari The Thomas Jefferson documentary on Netflix Demis Hassabis, "we've essentially found a way to make sand think," and AlphaFold Coach Bobby Knight Adam Smith, The Theory of Moral Sentiments Rob Shaw on character and soft information in lending (Episode 6) Ben Summers, leadership as how others feel when you're in the room (Episode 7) The 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment Anthropic, Hebbia, ChatGPT, and Copilot Microsoft Meta and Instagram The Norwegian World Cup team's rowing celebration Featured guest: A. Todd Howard, CFA — A. Todd Howard is MetLife Investment Management's (MIM) Head of Fixed Income - EMEA based in London. He is also a portfolio manager for emerging market debt strategies, multi-sector fixed income and the lead portfolio manager for the impact bond strategies. Todd joined MIM in September 2017, in connection with the acquisition of Logan Circle Partners (LCP). He served as a portfolio manager for the emerging market debt and multi-sector fixed income strategies at LCP. Prior to joining LCP in 2007, he was a trading specialist for Delaware Investments international bond group, where his responsibilities included non-dollar bonds and currencies. Prior to joining Delaware Investments, he was a U.S. Army Captain – Aviation Branch, where he piloted Black Hawk helicopters. He has over 20 years of industry experience. Todd received a Bachelor of Science degree in mechanical engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point and a Master of Business Administration from Auburn University. He is a CFA® charterholder. (MetLife Investment Management) Subscribe to the newsletter — one short essay every other Tuesday: leadershipeconomics.com