Coups, Wagner, and Jihadists: The Battle for the Sahel

The Sahel region of West Africa has become one of the most unstable security environments in the world. A wave of military coups, expanding jihadist insurgencies, and the growing influence of Russia and the Wagner Group are reshaping the geopolitical landscape across Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and the surrounding region. But what is actually driving the crisis? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly sits down with Fidel Amakye Owusu, a security analyst specializing in West African and Sahelian security dynamics, to unpack the forces behind the region’s instability. They discuss the origins of jihadist movements in the Sahel, the collapse of state authority across parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, and how insurgent groups are increasingly performing functions traditionally associated with governments — including taxation, control of trade routes, and local security. The conversation also examines the role of French counterterrorism operations, the political consequences of recent military coups, and how Russia and the Wagner Group have expanded their presence as Western forces have withdrawn. Finally, they explore one of the most important questions facing the region: can the democratic states surrounding the Sahel contain the instability, or will the crisis spread further into coastal West Africa? This episode provides a practitioner’s perspective on the evolving security crisis in the Sahel, one of the most important and least understood geopolitical challenges in the world today. Fidel Amakye Owusu is a Ghanaian security analyst focused on terrorism, insurgency, and governance challenges across West Africa and the Sahel. His work examines extremist movements, regional security cooperation, and the political dynamics shaping stability in the region. The rise of jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel Why governance gaps fuel instability in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger How insurgent groups fund themselves through taxation, trade routes, and resource control The impact of French counterterrorism operations in West Africa The recent wave of coups across the Sahel Russia and Wagner’s expanding role in regional security Whether democratic states like Ghana and Senegal can contain the crisis