CRE Caught in the Crosswinds – Rising Rates, Gating Risks, and a Market at an Inflection Point

Markets are sending mixed signals and commercial real estate is feeling the pressure. In this week’s episode, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker unpack a rapidly shifting landscape shaped by geopolitical tension, rising oil prices, and tightening financial conditions. The 10-year Treasury has climbed more than 30 basis points in just weeks, pushing borrowing costs up 60 to 75 basis points for CRE borrowers, while CMBS spreads have widened sharply across the capital stack.  At the same time, concerns are building around private equity credit, where redemption gates are raising questions about liquidity and systemic risk. Is gating a warning sign or a necessary pressure valve to prevent broader market disruption? The team breaks down what it means for valuations, lending behavior, and deal flow in the months ahead. Despite the macro turbulence, recent LightBox data points to strong momentum entering the year, with February property listings surging, including a 15 percent spike early in the month and a strong finish. But with volatility rising, all eyes are on March and April to see if that momentum holds or stalls.  The episode also highlights key deals and trends across sectors, from a $150 million multifamily construction loan signaling lender confidence, to major retail repositioning plays, softening industrial fundamentals, and continued strength in office leasing driven by AI and major financial institutions. A market at a turning point, with rising risks, resilient signals, and big questions about what comes next. 00:34 Markets in Turmoil01:22 Borrowing Costs Surge05:31 Fed Meeting Fallout07:50 Will CRE Slow Down13:10 Why Gating Matters17:00 Lightbox Data Dive19:52 March Madness Metrics21:41 Deals Development Retail26:07 Industrial and Office Wins32:46 K Shaped Economy SliceHave questions for the pod team? Send them to [email protected]. Send us Fan Mailwww.lightboxre.com