CropGPT - Sugar - Week 45

This episode provides a comprehensive overview in the global sugar market.South Africa has experienced a dramatic increase in sugar imports, rising more than 400% from 35,730 tons in 2024 to nearly 149,000 tons in 2025. This surge, primarily driven by cheaper Brazilian imports, has triggered a 13% drop in domestic sugar sales and resulted in financial losses exceeding R760 million for local producers. The effects have been most severe in rural areas like KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, where job security in the sugar sector is increasingly at risk. In response, the South African Cane Growers Association is calling for stronger local procurement policies and government action to protect domestic industry.Pakistan has mandated a unified sugarcane crushing start date of November 15, 2025, aiming to streamline operations and ensure timely payments to farmers. The policy is reinforced by the threat of government action against mills that fail to comply, seeking to align interests between millers and growers and promote a more efficient production cycle.India is set to double its sugar export allocation to 2 million metric tons for the new season, following a rebound in production to 30.95 million tons. This move is a strategic adjustment after last season’s export limitations caused by drought. Meanwhile, Brazil remains a dominant force, with expected production reaching 45 million metric tons, which continues to exert downward pressure on global sugar prices. The value of the Brazilian real also plays a crucial role in shaping international pricing trends.Thailand forecasts a 5% increase in sugar output, reaching 10.5 million metric tons, reinforcing its global market presence. In the Eurasian Economic Union, Russia leads regional production with 3.56 million tons, followed by Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, underscoring the bloc’s growing refining capacity and contribution to the global supply chain.