CropGPT - Sugar - Week 46

This episode delivers a strategic overview of the global sugar market as of November 16, 2025.Brazil is leading global output growth, with Conab projecting a record 45 million metric tons of sugar for the season. This expansion is driven by favorable weather and improved cane processing. Mid-October projections from DataGrow for the 2026–2027 crop remain strong at 44 million metric tons, with Brazil’s Center-South regions showing the most significant gains.India’s sugar industry is also experiencing renewed momentum. The Indian Sugar Mills Association estimates production will rise to 31 million metric tons, marking an 18.8 percent increase from the previous season. Contributing factors include favorable monsoon conditions and a reduction in ethanol diversion. Even with potential export limitations, India may still allocate up to 4 million metric tons for international markets if current restrictions persist.Thailand is forecasted to grow sugar production by 5 percent, reaching 10.5 million metric tons for the 2025–2026 period. This boost is supported by better yields and strong export performance, facilitated by a structured trade environment that continues to back industry expansion.The collective output increase across these major producers is creating a substantial global surplus. Zarnikov has adjusted its forecast to reflect an 8.7 million metric ton surplus for the 2025–2026 season. Major trading hubs like New York and London have seen downward price trends, though periodic rebounds have occurred due to technical trading factors and minor export constraints.