Crude Tensions: the Missing Israel - Iran Risk Premium

James Kostohyrz argues there’s a real chance that Israel and Iran are going to war.  Like bombs and missiles.  Real war. If so, what’s Iran’s first move?  Shut down the Strait of Hormuz and immediately block 20% of the world’s oil production.  Oh crap.  What would that mean for oil prices?   It’s a scary yet possible scenario we are facing.  Horrifying with huge ramifications for oil prices.  James argues it’s not priced into today’s crude prices.Join the conversation shaping the future of energy.Collide is the community where oil & gas professionals connect, share insights, and solve real-world problems together. No noise. No fluff. Just the discussions that move our industry forward.Apply today at collide.io00:00 - Intro01:52 - How Anas Makes Money03:09 - Geopolitical Risk and Oil Prices07:10 - Impact of Middle East War on Oil Prices11:29 - Iran's Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz17:59 - Iran's Economy and Potential Regime Change27:46 - Public Executions in Iran28:40 - Israel's Regime Change Policy29:40 - Likelihood of Regime Change in Iran32:53 - US Shale Revolution Insights34:00 - Overconfidence in US Shale Production36:20 - Asymmetric Risk/Reward in Energy Sector40:00 - Market Strategies for Investors43:53 - Israeli Perspectives on Regional Issues51:54 - Trump Administration's Potential Actions58:05 - Scenarios for War Outcomes1:00:50 - Potential Peace Deal Scenarios1:02:44 - Iran's Nuclear Program and Israeli Strategy1:05:50 - Trump’s Iran Policy and Diplomacy Prospects1:10:05 - Israel's Threat from Iran's Proxies1:11:02 - Ukraine's Role in the Conflict1:19:10 - Market Apathy Towards Geopolitical Risks1:20:17 - Contact Information for Teddy1:21:10 - Recent Changes in Israel1:23:06 - October 7, 2022 Eventshttps://twitter.com/collide_iohttps://www.tiktok.com/@collide.iohttps://www.facebook.com/collide.iohttps://www.instagram.com/collide.iohttps://www.youtube.com/@collide_iohttps://bsky.app/profile/digitalwildcatters.bsky.socialhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/collide-digital-wildcatters