Crypto vs. Fractured Fed: Warsh Incoming, Powell Stays, Plus Morgan Stanley and Goldman BTC ETFs

This episode was recorded live via X Spaces — audio quality varies in places. In the third CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded April 30, 2026, Head of Content Ken Odeluga is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CF Benchmarks Head of Research Gabe Selby, and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk for a packed session the morning after the most divided FOMC vote in over three decades.The DOJ has dropped its probe into Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh has cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a historic party-line vote, and Powell has signalled he intends to stay on as a board governor — all in the space of a week. Meanwhile, four dissents at Wednesday's FOMC meeting — the most since October 1992 — have laid bare a fragmented central bank just as its leadership transition begins. The team unpacks what it all means for the rate path, risk assets, and crypto specifically, before turning to the Bitcoin ETF distribution war heating up between IBIT, Morgan Stanley's newly launched MSBT, and Goldman Sachs' income-focused filing.00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome01:20 – DOJ Drops the Powell Probe: Clearing the Path for Warsh 05:04 – Powell Digs In: Staying as Governor Until 202809:33 – Jackson Hole: The Next Real Fed Event10:26 – Risk Assets in Earnings Mode, Not Rate-Cut Mode12:18 – Inside the FOMC Decision: Four Dissents, Most Since 199224:25 – Rate Cut Odds Collapse: What It Means for Crypto29:40 – Why Crypto Is Lagging Equities Right Now31:54 – Morgan Stanley's MSBT: Can a Late Entrant Compete?35:02 – The Distribution War: IBIT's Portability Edge41:58 – Goldman's Bitcoin Premium Income ETF: Boomer Candy Arrives48:07 – Bitcoin's Gamma Ceiling & the Missing Euphoria Bid52:20 – Capital Flows: ETFs vs. MicroStrategy54:46 – The Silver Lining: Warsh as Crypto Bull & Fed Deregulation56:24 – AI CapEx & the Growth Sustainability Question57:57 – Week Ahead: Iran, Clarity Act, Michigan Sentiment & Earnings61:03 – Closing Remarks