Cuts Delayed, Cuts Ahead: The UK and US in Focus

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones and Neil Staines from Eurizon SLJ Capital discuss macroeconomic themes for the upcoming week, with a focus on the UK's economic data and monetary policy, global growth dynamics, and the US Federal Reserve's actions. The discussion also touches on upcoming key economic indicators from China, Europe, and Australia. UK: Fiscal Tightening Delayed, Monetary Cuts DeferredA full suite of UK data lands next week: jobs, CPI, retail sales, and the Bank of England meeting.The budget delay means fiscal tightening won’t appear in BoE projections until February.December rate cuts remain possible, but a faster cutting cycle is now more likely in early 2026.Global: Complex Growth Dynamics Across RegionsUS CPI showed retailers’ weaker ability to pass on tariff costs, hinting at softer demand.China data (retail sales, industrial output, investment, jobs) will shape views on the recent equity rally.ECB signalled it is done cutting, while Japan, France, and the UK fiscal signals add to global uncertainty.US: Weakening Labour Market, Disinflation, and Fed CutsJobs data undershot, with a sharp downward revision to payrolls and rising jobless claims.PPI data highlighted weakening demand, reinforcing the disinflationary backdrop.The Fed is expected to cut 25bps, but focus shifts to projections, the dot plot, and Powell’s guidance.00:00 Introduction and Welcome00:28 UK Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy02:16 Global Growth Dynamics03:59 US Economic Data and Fed Policy06:58 Conclusion and Closing RemarksThe opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.