Daily Briefing — August 10, 2026 | Inflation Takes Over, With Rate-Cut Optimism Riding on the Outcome

After the best week for US stocks since April, driven by a surprising July jobs decline that slashed September rate-hike odds from 55% to 42% overnight, attention shifts fully to this week's inflation data. We cover the genuinely mixed forecasts heading into Wednesday's CPI report, oil's climb this morning on renewed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, and a Deutsche Bank strategist's framing of how the Iran negotiation question has shifted from whether a deal happens to what its final terms will actually look like. We preview CoreWeave's earnings later this week as the latest test of whether AI infrastructure spending is converting into durable profit, alongside Applied Materials' report from the supply side of that same story, and cover Bank of America's bullish sentiment survey and Fundstrat's Tom Lee sticking with his call for the S&P 500 to reach 8,000. We close with what to watch in gold and silver this week, and a note on Rheinmetall's guidance cut. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.