Daily Briefing — August 12, 2026 | The CPI Report That Could Decide the Fed's Next Move

Markets brace for the July Consumer Price Index, the most consequential inflation data left before the Fed's September meeting, with economists expecting the annual rate to ease slightly to 3.4% even as a rebound in the monthly figure is expected after June's unusually sharp decline. We cover why today's number matters so much for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh after last month's split 9-3 hold, and look back at two straight down days for stocks driven by fading hopes for a Strait of Hormuz resolution, including Alphabet's fourth losing session in five. We also cover real, measurable supply tightening through the strait as crude exports fall and Saudi Aramco delays a refinery restart, gold's stretched but still-remarkable August rally, and today's earnings from Cisco and Bloomin' Brands. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.