Daily Briefing — August 13, 2026 | A Calm CPI Report, a Wild Week for Rate Odds, and PPI Up Next

July's CPI report lands exactly in line with forecasts, pushing the S&P 500 to a fresh record and sending September rate-hike odds down to around 40%, capping off a week that saw those same odds swing from 55% to 42% to over 50% and back again. We cover why oil's continued climb above $83 a barrel means yesterday's relief may not carry forward, Nebius Group's 34% surge on strong AI infrastructure earnings, Apple's reported talks with publishers over an AI-powered Siri overhaul, and a genuine analyst split on where gold goes from here. We preview today's Producer Price Index report, remarks from Fed officials Hammack and Barkin, and the still-unresolved Strait of Hormuz situation, alongside earnings from Applied Materials, JD.com, NetEase, and Tapestry. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.