Daily Briefing — July 15, 2026 | Inflation Cools, Geopolitics Heats, and Earnings Tell a Mixed Story

In this episode, we break down a day of competing signals in global markets. June CPI came in cooler than expected — the first monthly decline in six years — shifting rate expectations and giving equities a boost. But geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, with the US resuming its naval blockade of Iran and oil prices rallying for a third day.We cover Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony, including his announcement of a sweeping policy review and his remarks on AI investment. We analyse the earnings picture — from IBM's 25% plunge, its worst day on record, to ASML's second guidance hike of the year, to strong results from Morgan Stanley and BlackRock. We look at the PayPal takeover bid, the divergence in European and Asian markets, and China's slowing GDP growth.We also examine the tech sector's evolving dynamics — the AI hardware boom, supply chain shifts, and growing concerns about stretched valuations. And we put it all in context: a market caught between cooling inflation and rising geopolitical risk, with the earnings season just getting started.