Dan Ivascyn: Secular Shifts, Tail Risks, and Portfolio Resilience

Fresh off publishing PIMCO’s Secular Outlook, “Rupture and Resilience,” Group CIO Dan Ivascyn joins Greg Hall to discuss the structural forces likely to shape markets over the next five years. From the pervasive role of AI in both equity and debt markets, to a macroeconomy increasingly driven by geopolitics, financial advisors face a new reality: long-term returns rely on preparing for the unexpected. True resilience requires a globally diversified approach both to generate returns and absorb macro shocks. Dan and Greg analyze these dynamics against today's core uncertainties: the Iran conflict, U.S. fiscal sustainability, and the capex “supercycle” powered by AI, defense, and global re-shoring and supply chain realignment. Show notes: (4:30) How politics are shaping economics (11:50) Planning beyond the base case (17:00) Why today’s bond math is favorable (21:00) The Iran conflict & global diversification (33:00) The state of U.S. creditworthiness (38:00) Optimism and uncertainty around the CapEx super cycle (49:00) The start of the credit default cycle (54:00) The tipping point in financial engineering If you enjoyed the episode, check out our other resources below: • Read: Secular Outlook: Rupture and Resilience • Video: Precision Over Prediction in Today’s Bond Market • Podcast: Money and Politics: Richard Clarida and Libby Cantrill on the New Fed Chair, Iran Conflict, and the 'Stag vs the Flation (Apple and Spotify) • Podcast: PIMCO Perspectives: When Geopolitics Becomes an Economic Input (Apple and Spotify) The discussion and content provided within this podcast is intended for informational purposes only and may not be appropriate for all investors. Reliance upon information provided in a podcast is at the sole responsibility of the listener. The information included herein is not based on any particularized financial situation, or need, and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, a forecast, research, investment advice or a recommendation for any specific PIMCO or other security, strategy, product or service. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investors should speak to their financial advisors regarding the investment mix that may be right for them based on their financial situation and investment objective. Podcasts may involve discussions with non-PIMCO personnel and such content contain the current opinions of the speaker but not necessarily those of PIMCO. Other podcasts may consist of audio recording of an existing PIMCO article and such material contains the current opinions of the manager. The opinions expressed in all podcasts are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. For additional important information go to www.pimco.com/gbl/en/general/legal-pages/podcast-disclosures