Dawn Chorus: Will the fuel tax hikes actually happen?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thekaka.substack.comBriefly in the news in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Monday, March 9:* Brace for US$100+ per barrel oil this week as the Iran war widens and lengthens.* Iran hit oil fields and refineries in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait overnight after US and Israeli air strikes blew up Iran’s biggest refinery in Tehran.* Petrol prices set to top NZ$3/litre in New Zealand this week, especially as oil prices keep rising and refining margins in Asia jump — thanks to China’s move to ban exports from its refineries.* Diesel prices here are expected to surge over $2.50 per liter. And remember that diesel price inflation is very closely correlated with CPI inflation, as the chart of the day below shows.* The key thing to watch is the Strait of Hormuz, and how long it takes to restart production and refining in the Gulf. It looks like many weeks, rather than days. It’s still closed and the US promise of insurance and warship escorts isn’t working.* The key question here will be whether the fuel tax hikes set for 2027 (12c) & 2028 (6c) will actually be enacted, given an election coming up on November 7 and cost of living being voters’ top concern. Paying subscribers can see more below the paywall fold & hear more in the podcast above.