Day 43: Iran Is Negotiating From Victory. Trump Is Negotiating From Truth Social.

April 11, 2026The Iranian delegation to Islamabad was led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, who piloted the aircraft himself, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Eighty-six officials, experts, and media personnel. Three planes departed Tehran, but only one carried the delegation. The other two were decoys.[1]On the flight, the front row of seats was left empty. On each seat, a bloodied backpack belonging to one of the 168 children killed in Minab. No one sat there. The seats were reserved for children who would never negotiate anything.[2][IMAGE: Ghalibaf's delegation meets Pakistani leadership in Islamabad. Iran brought 86 officials, Hezbollah's demands, and a list of 10 conditions. The talks have not started. Iran's preconditions are being met first.]The American delegation arrived at Noor Khan Air Base. Over 300 individuals. Vice President JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff. They brought numbers. Iran brought symbols. The negotiations have not yet begun, and Iran is already winning the framing war.[3]Bloomberg: $35/month. Financial Times: $42/month. The Economist: $17/month. Original analysis by Tatsu with 40+ footnotes: $8/month.Share this preview with others.How Iran Arrived at This TableForty-three days ago, the United States launched Operation Epic Fury with the stated objectives of destroying Iran's nuclear program, neutralizing its missile capability, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Today, Iran's chief negotiator is sitting in Islamabad with a list of 10 demands that include permanent Hormuz sovereignty, full sanctions relief going back to the Bush administration, war reparations, and the end of Israeli operations in Lebanon.Iran is not negotiating the terms of its surrender. It is negotiating the terms of America's withdrawal.This is not spin. Look at what has actually happened in the 72 hours since the ceasefire was announced:* The United States authorized the release of $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets held by South Korea in Qatari banks. Iran demanded this as a precondition. It was met.[4]* A Lebanon ceasefire announcement is expected today after Iran made it a condition for participating in talks. Israel Hayom and Al-Hadath both confirmed. Both sides want it framed as an Israeli "gesture of goodwill" rather than what it is: Iran forcing the United States to force Israel to stop bombing Lebanon.[5]* Iran's delegation brought Hezbollah's demands to present to the Americans. Iran is negotiating not just for itself but for its entire alliance network.[6]* The Strait of Hormuz has zero oil tanker traffic. One single tanker passed after paying a fee. Over 800 tankers are stuck waiting. Iran and Oman are charging tolls. Trump privately conceded to advisors that the Strait is "unlikely to completely reopen anytime soon."[7]Iran's preconditions are being met one by one. Iran has not conceded anything. This is what negotiating from victory looks like.Inside this report:* US destroyer turned around: Two warships tried to force the Strait. IRGC gave them 30 minutes. They reversed course.* Talks went direct, then stalled: Ghalibaf and Vance face-to-face in Islamabad. Immediate stalemate over Hormuz.* Trump vs. his own base: Called Tucker, Jones, Owens, Kelly "Low-IQ." Jones: "Trump got set up by Israel."* Ceasefire collapsed over Lebanon: 182 killed in one day. CNN confirms Israel carved Lebanon out of the deal.* Iran mined the Strait and can't find its own mines: the war metaphor perfected* Al-Udeid demolished: largest US base in the Middle East "entirely destroyed." $1.1B radar taken out by a drone.* Bridges rebuilt in 40 hours: Iran's infrastructure resilience vs. America's infrastructure decay* China arming Iran during the ceasefire: MANPADS delivery within weeks* Missile accuracy jumped from 3% to 27%: JP Morgan data. The war is making Iran more capable.* Kerry revelation: Three presidents said no to Netanyahu's request to bomb Iran. Trump was the only one who said yes.* The invoice: Iran's 10 conditions are not a negotiating position. They are a bill.$8/month for analysis that doesn't declare victory for either side.This analysis is available to paid subscribersHow Trump Arrived at This TableCompare.While Iran's delegation was flying to Islamabad with decoy planes and bloodied backpacks, the President of the United States was posting on Truth Social:"The Iranians don't seem to realize they have no cards."[8][IMAGE: Ghalibaf's X post from Islamabad: "Two of the measures mutually agreed upon between the parties have yet to be implemented: a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran's blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations." Iran is setting the preconditions. The US is meeting them.]The Iranians have the Strait of Hormuz. They have 15,000 missiles. They have 45,000 drones. They have a mining operation in the Strait that is so effective that Iran itself cannot locate all the sea mines it deployed, according to the New York Times. They have 14 million citizens who volunteered to die defending power plants. They have China delivering new air defense systems within weeks. And they have a negotiating position that is being accepted, point by point, by the country that bombed them for 43 days.[9]Trump posted: "The only reason they are alive today is because I decided to spare them!"He posted this while his Vice President was in a separate room in Islamabad, negotiating through Pakistani intermediaries because Iran will not allow direct face-to-face talks with the United States. The most powerful country on earth cannot get a meeting.[10]The structural problem is the same one I identified in Day 38: Trump's Four Walls. He cannot withdraw (no gains to show). He cannot escalate (the costs exceed the objectives). He cannot negotiate from strength (any deal Iran accepts is worse than the pre-war offer he rejected). He cannot maintain the status quo (the Strait is closed, oil is at $99, and his own base is turning on him).But there is a fifth wall now, one that did not exist on Day 38: he is losing his own coalition.Trump vs. His Own BaseOn April 9, Trump called Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, Candace Owens, and Megyn Kelly "Low-IQ" and "Against MAGA" for opposing the war.[11]Tucker Carlson had called for someone to "take away the nuclear codes." Alex Jones responded: "Trump is mad that he got set up by Israel." These are not CNN anchors or Democratic senators. These are the media figures who built the MAGA movement. They are the people who put Trump in office. And he is attacking them during active peace negotiations because they said the war was a mistake.[12]This is the political tell. A president who is winning does not attack his own base. A president who is negotiating from strength does not need to call his allies stupid. When the founder of InfoWars says you got "set up by Israel" and you respond by calling him low-IQ instead of explaining your strategy, you do not have a strategy to explain.Senator Lindsey Graham, during the Islamabad talks: "I just talked to Trump today. If you don't take this deal, you're going to regret it." He was speaking to Iran. But the desperation in the framing applies in both directions.[13]The NYT's Steven Erlanger published an analysis asking whether this is America's "Suez moment," the point where a dominant power signals the beginning of its international decline. Bruno Maçães, former Portuguese secretary of state: "The myth of America as all-powerful is important, and it's the basic requirement of a global hegemon to keep the oil flowing. This belief in an all-powerful America that can solve anything is disappearing."[14]Erlanger arrived at this conclusion on April 9. We published it on April 6, in Day 38: Trump's Four Walls. The establishment is three days behind the OSINT.Ceasefire Collapsed Over LebanonThe ceasefire lasted approximately six hours before the core dispute destroyed it.Iran's 10-point ceasefire plan explicitly included Lebanon. Point 7: end Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry confirmed: "Lebanon was agreed upon by both parties to be included." CNN, citing an Israeli source, reported that Tel Aviv "worked with Washington to ensure it did not accept" Lebanon in the ceasefire.[15]Israel then launched Operation Eternal Darkness: its largest strike wave of the entire war. Over 100 targets across Lebanon. 182 killed in a single day, the highest single-day death toll of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. 300 dead and 1,165 wounded in 10 minutes. Thirteen members of Lebanon's State Security Service killed in a strike on a government building. A journalist killed. The nephew of Hezbollah's Secretary-General assassinated.[16]Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi: "The Iran-US ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the US must choose, ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both."[17]When Vance said Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire and that if Iran "wants to continue a war in which they were hammered, it's their choice," Araghchi responded: "If the U.S. wishes to crater its economy by letting Netanyahu kill diplomacy, that would ultimately be its choice."[18]Hezbollah formally resumed military operations. Thirty attacks by midday on April 10, projected to reach 65 by day's end. Ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv, Ashdod, and Haifa. Air raid sirens at Ben Gurion Airport. Direct hits in Safed. Hezbollah released footage of a Noor anti-ship cruise missile attack on an Israeli naval vessel. FPV drones are destroying Merkava tanks in southern Lebanon at a rate that mirrors the Ukrainian battlefield.[19]Iran was minutes away from launching missiles at Israel on one night before Pakistani mediators talked them down. The ceasefire exists in name. In practice, Lebanon is burning, Hezbollah is firing 30+ operations per day, and the only thing preventing a full Iranian retaliatory strike is Pakistan's phone line.[20][IMAGE: IRGC missile with handwritten Farsi message to Trump. The Telegraph: "Iran rejects peace plan and mocks Trump with missile." The calligraphy reads: "Open your arms and receive our present." This is the tone Iran is bringing to Islamabad.] File: irgc_missile_writing.jpgA Lebanon ceasefire announcement is reportedly expected today. Iran made it a precondition for talks. Both sides want it framed as an Israeli gesture. Israeli TV analyst Raviv Drucker confirmed what Israeli reporter Alon Ben David reported: pushing Lebanon toward civil war "has been the plan all along."[21][IMAGE: Karaj bridge in Iran after Israeli airstrike. Israel destroyed 8 bridges across central and northern Iran. Iran rebuilt them in days. The bridges became symbols: you can bomb infrastructure, but you cannot bomb the capacity to rebuild it.] File: b1 bridge karaj.jpgHormuz: Iran Mined the Strait and Can't Find Its Own MinesThe Strait of Hormuz situation has gone from bad to absurd.On the first day of the ceasefire, four ships transited. All dry cargo. Zero oil or gas tankers. By April 10, traffic fell to its lowest level since the first two days of the war. One oil tanker attempted to cross and was turned back by the IRGC Navy. Over 800 tankers are stuck waiting near Hormuz. Normal traffic is 130 to 140 ships per day. Current traffic is 3 to 5.[22]The IRGC announced a new shipping lane because the previous lane "is possibly dangerous due to the presence of naval mines." Iranian news agencies published a chart suggesting the IRGC had placed sea mines across the Strait. The New York Times reported that Iran cannot locate all the mines it deployed and lacks the capability to remove them.[23][IMAGE: NYT headline: "Iran can't find some of its mines in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. officials say." Cargo ships waiting near Hormuz. The weapon that won the war has become a problem that outlasts the war.]This is the war in one sentence. Iran mined the Strait of Hormuz to prevent American naval access. The mines worked. Now Iran controls the Strait but cannot fully reopen it even if it wanted to, because it cannot find its own mines. The weapon that won the war has become a problem that outlasts the war. Every negotiation about "reopening Hormuz" must now account for the fact that the physical infrastructure of closure may be permanent regardless of what any diplomat agrees to.[IMAGE: Reuters report highlighted: "Trump appears in recent conversations with advisers to have conceded the Strait of Hormuz... is unlikely to completely reopen soon." Publicly he says "99% chance." The gap between Truth Social and reality is the story.]Trump publicly: "99% chance. Yes, it will open on its own." Trump privately (Reuters): the Strait is "unlikely to completely reopen anytime soon."[24]Fox News: "The Strait of Hormuz is effectively under full IRGC control. They decide who gets to go through, but more importantly, who doesn't."[25]Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in his first major public address on the 40th day after his father's assassination: "The Strait of Hormuz will be under new management."[26]While the Islamabad talks were underway, the US Navy tested this control. Two guided-missile destroyers, the USS Frank E. Peterson and the USS Michael Murphy, transited the Strait on April 11 without coordinating with Iran. CENTCOM said they were "setting conditions for clearing mines." The IRGC responded by informing Pakistani mediators that if the warships continued moving, they would be targeted in 30 minutes. The lead destroyer stopped, reversed course, and left the Persian Gulf. A US official denied receiving any threat. Al-Jazeera and Iranian state media both confirmed the reversal.[^27a]The US Navy just tried to assert freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. It turned around. This happened during peace talks. While Trump was posting that Iran has "no cards," his destroyers were retreating from Iran's cards.Iran is now proposing to charge tolls in cryptocurrency, $1 per barrel, bypassing SWIFT and the dollar system entirely. If you wanted a single indicator that the petrodollar system is fracturing in real time, it is an Iranian toll booth on the Strait of Hormuz that accepts crypto and rejects dollars.[27]Al-Udeid Demolished, Bridges Rebuilt in 40 Hours[IMAGE: Charred aircraft wreckage on the tarmac of Al-Udeid Air Base, Qatar. The largest American military installation in the Middle East, reduced to this. Al-Jazeera exclusive.]Two infrastructure stories that tell the whole war.Al-Jazeera obtained exclusive footage of Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest American military installation in the Middle East. The footage showed extensive destruction. "The entire infrastructure has been demolished." The $1.1 billion AN/FPS-132 Block 5 early warning radar near Doha was taken out by an Iranian drone strike. Ras al-Laffan, Qatar's primary gas sector facility, suffered extensive damage.[28][IMAGE: Al-Udeid Air Base, Qatar. The largest American military installation in the Middle East. "The entire infrastructure has been demolished." Al-Jazeera exclusive footage.][IMAGE: The $1.1 billion AN/FPS-132 Block 5 early warning missile radar near Doha, after Iranian drone strike. Burn marks visible on the phased array panels. This radar was supposed to detect the missiles that destroyed it.]Meanwhile, Iran rebuilt the Yahyaabad railway bridge in Kashan in two to three days after Israeli bombing on April 7. Freight trains are already crossing. Four additional bridges on the southern Iran-Mashhad railway line were rebuilt in under 40 hours. Multiple OSINT accounts compared this to the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, which collapsed in March 2024 and remains under reconstruction two years later.[29][IMAGE: Iranian engineers rebuilding a bombed railway bridge with heavy excavators. Four bridges on the Mashhad line were rebuilt in under 40 hours. Baltimore's Key Bridge collapsed in 2024 and is still under repair. Tasnim News.]One country's infrastructure is being rebuilt in days. The other country's infrastructure is being demolished and cannot be rebuilt during the conflict. The asymmetry is not in firepower. It is in resilience.China Enters the FrameCNN reported that U.S. intelligence indicates China is preparing to deliver new air defense systems to Iran within weeks, including MANPADS (shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles). The Chinese embassy in Washington denied the report.[30]This matters beyond the immediate military impact. China brokered the ceasefire. China is now arming Iran during the ceasefire. China is expected to participate as a guarantor of the Islamabad negotiations. The country that Trump spent his first term trying to contain in the Pacific is now simultaneously the mediator, the arms supplier, and the guarantor in the Middle East. Every role that used to belong to the United States, China is auditioning for while Washington watches.Professor Rajan Menon of CUNY: "While we look crazed and talk about bombing a country back to the stone age, China looks like a peacemaker and agent of stability."[31]Iran's missile accuracy against Israel rose from 3% in the first two weeks to 27% by mid-April, according to JP Morgan and the Institute for the Study of War. Chinese air defense systems will push that number higher. The war is making Iran more capable, not less.[32]168 Empty SeatsThe bloodied backpacks on the empty seats of the Iranian delegation's aircraft are not a negotiating tactic. They are a statement about what this war cost. One hundred and sixty-eight children killed in Minab. Their backpacks placed where diplomats should sit.The American delegation brought 300 people. Vance, Kushner, Witkoff. They brought talking points and Truth Social posts and contradictory demands that change by the hour. They brought a president who is simultaneously calling Iran "a failing nation" and authorizing the release of $6 billion in frozen assets to get them to talk.The format tells you everything. The talks began as indirect negotiations through Pakistani intermediaries. Then, on April 11, they escalated to direct face-to-face: Ghalibaf, Araghchi, and Baqeri Kani across from Vance, Kushner, and Witkoff, with Pakistan's Asim Munir in the room. Iran agreed to sit across from the US only after its preconditions started being met. The Financial Times reported the talks immediately hit a stalemate over Hormuz control.[^10a]Former Secretary of State John Kerry revealed that Netanyahu approached Obama, Biden, and Bush with requests to strike Iran. All three said no. Trump is the only president who said yes. Three administrations understood the trap. The fourth walked into it.[33]Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi, on the eve of talks: "It's very simple. America must abide by its commitments, or we're done."[34]Speaker Ghalibaf: "If they insist on deception, they'll face a nation that hasn't surrendered in 43 days of bombardment."[35]Day 43Iran is negotiating from victory. Trump is negotiating from Truth Social. The Strait is mined, closed, and under new management. American destroyers are turning around when Iran gives them 30 minutes. Lebanon is burning because Israel carved it out of a ceasefire that Pakistan says included it. China is arming Iran while brokering peace. Tucker Carlson is calling for the nuclear codes to be confiscated. Alex Jones says Trump got set up by Israel. And in Islamabad, the front row is empty because the children who should be sitting there are dead.Forty-three days ago, a real estate developer could have read a nuclear offer and prevented all of this. The offer Iran is presenting now is not a nuclear deal. It is an invoice.Independent analysis. $8/month.[^10a]: OSINT intelligence capture (33,609 views): talks resumed direct, face-to-face: Ghalibaf, Araghchi, Baqeri Kani vs. Vance, Kushner, Witkoff, Asim Munir in room. White House official (8,356 views): confirmed trilateral face-to-face meeting. FT via Kobeissi Letter (603 views): stalemate over Strait of Hormuz control.[^27a]: OSINT intelligence capture (51,642 views): US warship turned away from Strait by IRGC Navy, Al-Jazeera. Axios (47,425 views): US Navy ships crossed without prior coordination. OSINT intelligence capture (45,207 views): Al-Jazeera citing Fars: "Iran informed Pakistani mediators if warship movement continues, it would be targeted in 30 minutes." OSINT intelligence capture (44,158 views): warship entered Persian Gulf, then abruptly reversed course. CENTCOM (6,603 views): began mine-clearing operations. Barak Ravid (9,350 views): US official denied receiving threat.Notes[1] OSINT intelligence capture (47,502 views): Three Iranian planes departed for Islamabad, two were decoys. Ghalibaf and Araghchi took separate planes for security. Delegation codenamed "Minab 168."[2] OSINT intelligence capture (30,870 views): Front row of seats reserved for 168 children killed in Minab, bloodied backpacks placed on empty seats.[3] WSJ: US delegation includes VP JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff. Over 300 individuals. Arrived at Noor Khan Air Base.[4] OSINT intelligence capture (57,097 views): US authorized release of $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds. Qatari and South Korean representatives working to transfer. CBS News (7,140 views): senior US official denied agreement, contradicting Reuters reporting.[5] Israel Hayom (49,246 views): immediate Lebanon ceasefire expected. Al-Hadath (46,457 views): confirmed. Axios (46,624 views): both sides prefer framing as Israeli "gesture of goodwill." OSINT intelligence capture (48,088 views): Iran departed for Islamabad only after being informed Israel agreed.[6] OSINT intelligence capture (29,979 views): Iran carrying Hezbollah's demands to present to Americans at Islamabad.[7] OSINT intelligence capture (63,548 views): only 4 ships on Day 1 of ceasefire, zero oil or gas tankers, confirmed by Kpler. CNN (47,664 views): one oil tanker passed after paying fee. OSINT intelligence capture (86,356 views): oil tanker turned back by IRGC. NYT (24,107 views): over 800 tankers stuck waiting. Reuters (48,568 views): Trump privately concedes Strait unlikely to reopen soon.[8] Trump Truth Social post, April 10, 2026. "The Iranians don't seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways" (46,678 views).[9] NYT (6,457 views via Slavyangrad): Iran cannot locate all sea mines it deployed. CNN (8,098 views): China preparing to deliver air defense systems to Iran within weeks. OSINT intelligence capture (57,839 views): Iran told Pakistan it still holds 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones.[10] OSINT intelligence capture (48,461 views): talks to be indirect, separate rooms, Iran will not allow direct face-to-face meetings.[11] OSINT intelligence capture (6,502 views): Trump called Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, Candace Owens, Megyn Kelly "Low-IQ" and "Against MAGA."[12] OSINT intelligence capture (22,344 views): Alex Jones responded "Trump is mad that he got set up by Israel." OSINT intelligence capture (78,530 views): Tucker Carlson called for nuclear codes to be confiscated.[13] OSINT intelligence capture (19,727 views): Senator Lindsey Graham during Islamabad talks: "I just talked to Trump today. If you don't take this deal, you're going to regret it."[14] "A Cease-Fire for Now in Iran, but a Blow to American Credibility." Steven Erlanger, New York Times, April 9, 2026. Bruno Maçães quoted on American hegemony and the myth of all-powerful America.[15] OSINT intelligence capture (64,806 views): Pakistan Foreign Ministry confirmed Lebanon was agreed upon. CNN (10,605 views): Israel "worked with Washington to ensure it did not accept" Lebanon. OSINT intelligence capture (62,288 views): Iran FM Araghchi statement on ceasefire terms.[16] OSINT intelligence capture (10,909 views): 182 killed in single day, highest single-day death toll. OSINT intelligence capture (18,866 views): 300+ dead and 1,165 wounded in 10 minutes. Journalist Suzanne Khalil killed (12,228 views). 13 State Security Service members killed in Nabatiyeh. Ali Yusuf Harshi, nephew of Hezbollah Secretary-General, killed (4,435 views).[17] OSINT intelligence capture (62,288 views): Araghchi: "The US must choose, ceasefire or continued war via Israel."[18] OSINT intelligence capture (55,309 views): Araghchi response to Vance: "If the U.S. wishes to crater its economy by letting Netanyahu kill diplomacy, that would ultimately be its choice." Vance (6,115 views): "if Iran wants to continue a war in which they were hammered, it's their choice."[19] OSINT intelligence capture (55,432 views): five Hezbollah operations by morning April 9. OSINT intelligence capture (48,171 views): 30+ operations by midday April 10. OSINT intelligence capture (38,256 views): ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv, Ashdod, Haifa. OSINT intelligence capture (45,812 views): Hezbollah FPV drone compilation video, 311 forwards. OSINT intelligence capture (2,148 views): Merkava tank destroyed by ATGM followed by FPV drone.[20] OSINT intelligence capture (52,138 views): Iran was minutes from launching missiles at Israel, talked down by Pakistani mediators.[21] Israel Hayom (49,246 views): Lebanon ceasefire expected. OSINT intelligence capture (19,890 views): Israeli TV reporters confirm pushing Lebanon toward civil war "has been the plan all along."[22] OSINT intelligence capture (63,548 views): 4 ships on Day 1, zero oil tankers. OSINT intelligence capture (33,985 views): traffic fell to lowest since Day 2. OSINT intelligence capture (86,356 views): oil tanker turned back. OSINT intelligence capture (24,107 views): 800+ tankers stuck. Normal traffic 130-140/day, current 3-5 (22,772 views).[23] OSINT intelligence capture (40,375 views): IRGC announced new shipping lane due to mines. OSINT intelligence capture (11,594 views): chart suggesting mine placement. NYT (6,457 views): Iran cannot locate all mines, lacks removal capability.[24] Trump: "99% chance. Yes, it will open on its own" (5,885 views). Reuters (48,568 views): Trump privately concedes unlikely to reopen.[25] Fox News (46,704 views): "The Strait of Hormuz is effectively under full IRGC control."[26] OSINT intelligence capture (57,374 views): Mojtaba Khamenei first major public address, 40th day after father's assassination. "The Strait of Hormuz will be under new management."[27] OSINT intelligence capture (4,287 views): Iran plans cryptocurrency tolls, $1/barrel, bypassing SWIFT and dollar system.[28] Al-Jazeera exclusive footage (5,199 views): Al-Udeid Air Base destruction. OSINT intelligence capture (8,102 views): $1.1B AN/FPS-132 radar destroyed. OSINT intelligence capture (4,700 views): Ras al-Laffan extensive damage.[29] OSINT intelligence capture (15,366 views): Yahyaabad bridge rebuilt in 2-3 days, trains crossing. OSINT intelligence capture (5,698 views): 4 bridges on Mashhad line rebuilt under 40 hours. Compared to Baltimore Key Bridge (collapsed March 2024, still under reconstruction).[30] CNN (8,098 views): US intelligence indicates China preparing air defense systems for Iran including MANPADS. Chinese embassy denied.[31] Rajan Menon, professor emeritus CUNY, quoted in NYT Erlanger analysis: "While we look crazed and talk about bombing a country back to the stone age, China looks like a peacemaker and agent of stability."[32] OSINT intelligence capture (1,672 views): JP Morgan and ISW data, Iranian missile hit rate rose from 3% to 27%.[33] OSINT intelligence capture (5,284 views): John Kerry revealed Netanyahu approached Obama, Biden, and Bush to strike Iran. All said no. Trump was the only one who agreed.[34] OSINT intelligence capture (66,865 views): Araghchi: "It's very simple. America must abide by its commitments, or we're done."[35] OSINT intelligence capture (12,156 views): Ghalibaf: "If they insist on deception, they'll face a nation that hasn't surrendered in 43 days of bombardment." This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tatsuikeda.substack.com/subscribe