Day Seven of the War — Life Under Iranian Missiles, Hezbollah’s Escalation, and the Uncertain Endgame

In this Friday edition of the Tel Aviv Diary Podcast, I describe Tel Aviv on the seventh day of the war between Israel, the United States, and Iran. I begin with the reality on the ground here: the Iranian missile barrages have steadily declined in size, but the disruption to daily life remains constant. Even when only one or two missiles are fired, everyone still heads for shelter, because debris from interceptions can be deadly and, as we have seen, even a single missile getting through can cause terrible loss of life. I describe what life has looked like in Tel Aviv this past week—the partial reopening of stores, the routine of running downstairs with only minutes to spare, the unusual number of attacks on Jerusalem, and the emotional strain of living hour by hour under constant alerts.I then turn to the broader military and political picture. Hezbollah has now fully entered the fight, launching rockets and drones from Lebanon, including attacks toward the Tel Aviv area, while Israel has expanded its operations against Hezbollah targets in Beirut’s southern suburbs and elsewhere in Lebanon. I discuss Iran’s widening attacks on Gulf states, why that strategy appears to be backfiring, and the growing question at the center of this war: how does it end? Can the Iranian regime be weakened enough for the people to rise up? Will Trump declare victory and stop? Or will Israel and the United States continue dismantling Iran’s military and industrial infrastructure piece by piece until little remains? I also examine the strange logic behind some of Iran’s decisions, including attacks that have only widened international support for the campaign against it.In the final section, I touch on another subject that has been very much on my mind: the intersection of AI, politics, and war. I discuss the dispute between Anthropic, OpenAI, and the U.S. Defense Department over military AI use, why Anthropic’s insistence on rejecting mass domestic surveillance and fully autonomous lethal decision-making matters, and why I believe those limits are not “woke” but essential safeguards. This episode is part war diary, part political analysis, and part reflection on the broader forces shaping the world around us—from the bomb shelter in Tel Aviv to the future of artificial intelligence and military power. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit marcschulman.substack.com/subscribe