Dazi AI Watch 019 : After Optics and Memory Have Rallied, Who Overbuilds Next?

The AI cycle is not over, but the easiest phase of the shortage trade may be ending.Over the past two years, the market rewarded whatever was scarce: GPUs, HBM, optical modules, AI servers, high-end PCBs, power, cooling, and interconnects. Dell and HPE have now confirmed that AI server demand is real. But Credo’s post-earnings selloff shows the next phase is more difficult: strong fundamentals are no longer enough when expectations are already extremely high.In this episode of Dazi AI Cycle Watch, we discuss why AI is entering an inventory-cycle phase. The key question is no longer simply “what is still scarce?” but “how long will the shortage last, who is expanding capacity, and where could supply catch up faster than expected?”AI can still move higher, but the investment framework must change.Prices are only the result. Variables define the stage.We don’t predict prices. We observe the cycle.