Deal Live, Hormuz Open - Energy Markets Daily

What this episode covers

Monday, June 22, 2026. WEEK 26 OPENS. The deal is done. The Strait of Hormuz is open. Crude is at $75.60-$75.70. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures trading $75.60-$75.70 (Jun 22), down 2.1-2.2% from prior session. Recent closes: Jun 21 $75.67, Jun 18 $76.60, Jun 17 $76.79, Jun 16 $76.05, Jun 15 $80.75, Jun 12 $84.88, Jun 11 $87.71. Month-to-date down 19%. YTD up 10%. SETUP: Prices snapping lower after earlier volatility. Stronger dollar headwind. Prediction markets trading near $76 with potential upside targets around $80. DEAL IS LIVE: MOU signed remotely ~Jun 17. Trump signed hard copy Jun 17-18 at Versailles. Formal signing Jun 19, Switzerland. 60-day negotiation period initiated. STRAIT OF HORMUZ REOPENED: Commercial shipping toll-free 60 days. US naval blockade lifted. Iran established Persian Gulf Strait Administration for vessel clearance, no fees during 60-day period. SHIPPING SURGE: Ship crossings spiked 25 commercial vessels Jun 18 (highest since mid-April). Oil tankers Saudi-flagged super tankers carrying millions of barrels moved through. De-confliction line set up between parties for safe passage. CONCERNS: De-mining waterway ongoing. Regional frictions Lebanon ceasefire issues. Some contradictory reports Iran closure threats. Trump reference possible US tolls if final deal not reached in 60 days. IMPLICATION: Supply flowing. Geopolitical premium gone. Crude at $75 new reality. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. If crude breaks below $70, next target $65. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS: Most recent EIA report (released Jun 18, covers week ending Jun 12): Total working gas 2,759 Bcf. Net change +73 Bcf injection. YTY 29 Bcf below same week last year. 5-year average 151 Bcf above average 2,608 Bcf. Prior week (ending Jun 5) +108 Bcf injection to 2,686 Bcf. Build slightly below expectations (consensus ~75-82 Bcf). Inventories within 5-year historical range. Henry Hub trading near $3.15-$3.20/MMBtu. NEXT STORAGE REPORT: Jun 25 (week ending Jun 19). SETUP: Storage ample. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Crude—fade trade complete. $75 new reality. Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. Gas—accumulation thesis intact. Storage ample. Accumulate $3.05-$3.15. Target $4.00+. Week 26 opens with supply flowing and geopolitical premium gone. Trade the data, not the headlines.

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How long is this episode of Energy Markets Daily?

This episode is 2 minutes long.

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This episode was published on June 22, 2026.

What is this episode about?

Monday, June 22, 2026. WEEK 26 OPENS. The deal is done. The Strait of Hormuz is open. Crude is at $75.60-$75.70. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures trading $75.60-$75.70 (Jun 22), down 2.1-2.2% from prior session. Recent closes: Jun 21 $75.67, Jun 18...

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