Energy Markets Daily

Tuesday, September 15, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI ~$101.34 (+0.98%), rally from low $80s Aug to $100-$103 zone. Bias: bullish above key levels, consolidation/decision point. Resistance: $103-$105 (immediate), $107-$108 (next upside target), $113 (cycle high strong bullish), $116-$120 (major extension if disruptions intensify). Support: $98.50-$100 (near-term holds bullish), $95.48 (61.8% Fib first pullback), $90-$92.50 (demand band 50% Fib ~$90 Elliott Wave critical break reversal risk), $85-$88 (medium-term 100-day SMA ~$85.38 July ~$94), $84.59/$77.86/~$67 (deeper). Indicators: RSI(14) 71.68 (overbought/sell), MACD +4.63 (buy), oscillators 6 sell/1 neutral/3 buy (sell bias), MA strong buy 12 buy signals (bullish trend), candlesticks mix bearish daily (Deliberation/Doji/Engulfing) bullish shorter, ADX buy strong momentum. Overall: bullish trend but short-term momentum fading, potential pullback before resumption. WTI consolidating near highs, support $98.50-$100 expected holding, resistance $103-$105 breakout targets $107-$108, reversal $95.48 Fib defense, geopolitical premium elevated. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub ~$2.88-$2.90 at pivot, recent range ~$2.75-$3.01. Resistance: $2.897-$2.906 dense cluster (50% Fib/VWAP/SMA50/SuperTrend), $2.91 (R2), $2.917/$3.00 psychological. Bullish breakout >$2.906 targets ~$3.026. Support: $2.877 (S1 immediate), $2.87 (S2 Fib), $2.857/$2.715-$2.79 (deeper). Bearish reversal: $2.79-$2.84 downside. Indicators: MA clustered $2.83-$2.89 mostly bullish buy signals, MA200 ~$2.90, pivot ~$2.89. Bias: capped supply/storage, mixed-to-bullish technically. Setup: at pivot, resistance dense $2.897-$2.906 breach target $2.91/$3.00, bears defend $2.877 next $2.87 Fib, storage/LNG (19.6 Bcf/d multi-month high) warmer weather cooling demand geopolitical directing to US. Volatility: summer 2026 realized ~40%+, forward fall-winter Oct-Jan ~60-70%, drivers EIA weekly storage/weather/LNG/geopolitical, institutional long building, OI rising. WTI consolidating $98.50-$105 bullish bias momentum fading RSI overbought, R $103-$105 S $98.50-$100, geopolitical premium intact, monitor consolidation breakout/pullback support hold. NG at pivot $2.88-$2.89, R dense $2.897-$2.906, S $2.877-$2.87, upside $3.00 breakout downside $2.79-$2.84 reversal, storage LNG key drivers, elevated volatility forward higher. Trade charts respect levels manage risk.

Monday, September 14, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI surging to $102+ range (late session quotes $102.29-$102.55 up 2.23-2.50%). Brent breakout above $107 ($106.91-$108 range), +2% daily, +17-18% month, +58-59% YoY, first time above $100 since July. WTI-Brent spread widening $5-9/bbl premium to Brent signals Hormuz severity. Primary driver: US-Iran conflict seven months, Strait Hormuz effectively closed (normally 15-20M bpd 20% global consumption). Current: ~3 commercial arrivals/day (~4% pre-crisis 74/day baseline), oil flows near-zero, day 198 disruption, war-risk insurance 15x peacetime. Sep 13: Iran commercial vessel struck Qeshm Island (1 fatality, injuries), regional Oman talks indefinitely postponed, vessel transits single-digits 7-10/day vs pre-war 130+, US military facilitated cumulative 1,600+ vessels recent daily 9-11M bbl well below pre-war. Iranian blockade mid-July halted exports, loadings ~220k-255k bpd Aug vs much higher, dozens tankers stranded in Gulf, bypass capacity limited several M bpd cannot compensate. Secondary: drone/Houthi Saudi attacks, East-West pipeline (7M bpd bypass) temporary shutdowns, Red Sea threats, diplomatic uncertainty both sides signaling prolongation fading quick de-escalation hopes. Historical: early 2026 >$120 initial phase, eased temporary ceasefire/Hormuz reopen, re-accelerated renewed hostilities. Banks raising forecasts $95-$120+ if persist, some agencies gradual easing potential later 2026, global supply tightened. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub $2.88-$2.89/MMBtu. NYMEX NG close Sep 14: $2.882. Trading Econ $2.89 up 2.05%, OilPriceAPI $2.89 spot, Markets Insider ~$2.88, early Sep $2.81, prior sessions $2.83-$2.92 range, 52-week low ~$2.52-$2.56 high ~$7.46. Crude testing $100+ territory, Brent leading, Hormuz paralysis persists, gas holding $2.88-$2.89 decoupled but slightly higher. War premium embedded, diplomatic path unclear, supply deficit widening. Capital preservation first. Do not short active conflict. Respect the levels. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Friday, September 11, 2026. Belarus: marginal crude producer (2.0M tonnes annually, ~25k bpd, plans 2.1M 2026, 2.3M 2030); Belorusneft main producer, Russian subsidiary Yangpur 1M+ tonnes/yr; 96 fields, 194.5M tonnes recoverable, 531 wells planned 2026-2030; APG 219M m³ 2024. Refining dominance: Naftan/Mozyr 24M tonnes/yr capacity, 95-97% depth at Naftan. Record 2026 profitability: fuel exports to Russia surge (gasoline 25x first 7mo to 665k tonnes, diesel 7x to 418k tonnes, July record 212k gasoline/162k diesel rail). Russian refinery outages (Ukrainian drone strikes -25-30% capacity) create opportunity. Domestic sales 4.125M tonnes 2025. Gas import dependency 100% from Russia (~17B m³ 2025, down from higher levels via nuclear shift); periodic shortages, negotiating 2026+ terms. Nuclear: BelAES 17B kWh 2025, 40% electricity consumption, reducing gas reliance. Infrastructure: Druzhba pipeline carries Russian crude through Belarus to Europe (Hungary/Slovakia/Poland/Germany). Southern branch disrupted Jan-Apr 2026 (Ukrainian drone strikes Brody), resumed April 23; Hungary/Slovakia blocked EU 20th sanctions until resumed. Russia halted Kazakh transit northern branch May 1, 2026 (technical reasons), reducing volumes. Oct 2026: Gomeltransneft/Polotsktransneft merged into one Gomel entity improving efficiency. Sanctions: EU 20th (Apr 2026) asset freezes/LNG restrictions/export-import bans/transit prohibitions; EU 21st (Jul 2026) targeted energy/finance/military, designated Mozyr refinery. UK exemption Druzhba through Oct 14, 2027. Hungary/Slovakia political leverage over pipeline delays EU sanctions. Economic: sanctions increase Russia dependence. Druzhba revenues decline (southern 9.25-9.7M tons 2025, further 2026). Transit income ~€35-50M/yr potential. GDP growth slowed 2025-early 2026. Rail exports oil/petrochemicals 50% above 2025 pace. Belarus: Europe's refinery for Russia, marginal producer, 100% energy import-dependent, geopolitical hostage.

Thursday, September 10, 2026. Nevada remains marginal oil/gas producer (172k bbl 2025 down from 177k 2024, 207k 2023; historical peak 4M bbl 1990) with zero in-state refining capacity (only asphalt 1,600 bpd). Federal production 2016-2025: 2.4M bbl oil, 45M cf gas (<0.1% national). USGS undiscovered 1.407B bbl recoverable (3rd highest after AK, NM). Entirely import-dependent on California refineries (88% fuel). Refinery closure vulnerability significant. Renewable dominance: solar 5,480 MW across 70 farms (8.2 GW total, 33.5% electricity, 8,510 jobs), ~30% generation share, 47 farms 16.6 GW planned. Geothermal 26 plants 933 MW (8-8.6% mix, 2nd largest US), major: McGinness Hills 104 MW; new projects Lone Mountain, Pearl (60 MW), Ormat EGS Dixie Valley (280 MW). Wind negligible 150-152 MW (0.78% generation). NV Energy 2026 IRP: 4,370 MW new solar, 5,405 MW battery storage, 180 MW geothermal through 2033. Data center electricity demand unprecedented: 5% 2025 sales to 64% by 2046, driving major generation/storage/gas turbine builds. Gas procurement from Permian/Rocky Mountain/San Juan via Kern River with hedging. Nevada: marginal crude/gas, zero refining, renewable/data center powerhouse, California fuel dependency vulnerability, EGS/solar/geothermal boom through 2033.

Wednesday, September 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading near $93-$94/bbl testing $95 resistance. Sep 8 close Oct 2026 contract $93.50-$93.62 (+1.1-2.3% day), intraday highs $94.73, spot $92.36-$93.66. Strong early Sep momentum low-to-mid $80s late Aug to low-to-mid $90s. 1-2%+ daily gains volatility. 52-week ~$55-$119 currently upper third. +48-50% YoY from ~$62. Drivers: US-Iran conflict heightened (tanker strikes, Iranian Strait statements), supply disruption risks Middle East, ~10% prior week rally. Technical: near/testing $95 WTI/$100 Brent resistance, potential upside sustained geopolitical, ascending triangles noted. INVENTORY (EIA Aug 28 Released Sep 2): Commercial crude 424.5M down 4.5 (~1% above avg); SPR 286.6M down 3.1 sharply YoY; total US crude ~711.1M down ~7.6; gasoline 205.7M down 1.2 (6% below avg); distillates 104.2M up 0.8 (14% below avg); Cushing ~22.5M up ~0.1; total commercial down 3.0 total stocks ~1,528.9M; refinery inputs 17.5M bpd up 102-103k (97-98% capacity near-multi-year highs); imports 4-week avg ~6.7M bpd up ~2% YoY; product supplied 4-week total ~20.4M bpd down 4% YoY (gasoline ~8.9M bpd down 2% YoY, distillates ~3.7M bpd down 6% YoY); next report ~Sep 10 (week ending Sep 4-5 Labor Day delayed). NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub ~$2.90-$2.92/MMBtu. World Oil Monitor 2.923 Sep 8; Markets Insider ~$2.90 down ~2.49% range ~$2.86-$3.01; Investing.com Oct '26 ~$2.91 down ~2.15-2.45% intraday $2.864-$3.013. 52-week low ~$2.48-$2.52 high ~$7.46-$7.83. OPEC+ (Sep 6): Seven core members (Saudi/Russia/Iraq/Kuwait/Kazakhstan/Algeria/Oman) maintain Oct output at Sep 2026 levels (unchanged). Rationale: market conditions, Iran war export impact, 2027 prep. Follows 2023 cut rollback (Sep 188k bpd increase completed 1.65M bpd unwind); actual output well below targets (conflict constrained). Shift to 2027: reviewing capacity to set quotas, further hikes likely paused. Iran disruptions Strait Hormuz (recent US strikes, Iranian responses) mean quota changes limited real-world supply impact. Next: Oct 4. Brent spiked ~$96 recently (earlier peaks higher); volatility ongoing conflict, limited OPEC+ near-term physical influence. Broader 21-member cuts remain end-2026; core members constrained Iran conflict. Crude testing major resistance. OPEC+ pausing new hikes. Geopolitical premium persists.

Tuesday, September 8, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS. WTI crude trading near $92 to $93 per barrel. Testing key resistance. Price action September 7 close around $90 to $92.29. Consolidating near $90 after earlier gains. Bullish structure above moving averages. Ascending channel since late August. Support levels: $92.47 (50% Fib critical), $91.00-$91.04 (100-hr/ST MA), $88.01/$86.40-$86.99 (38.2%/50% Fib/channel mid), $85.21-$85.96 (100-day SMA), $84.79/$82.26 (61.8% Fib). Resistance: $93.50 (immediate major ST resistance June highs), $92.67-$93.22 (near-term 1.618 Fib ext/channel top), $97.00 (June 3 swing high), $98.41-$98.48 (61.8%/78.6% Fib), $100+ (psychological/LT targets). Momentum: RSI 14 (60-70 bullish but overbought threshold), MACD (positive histogram expanding), Stochastic (overbought ~89 possible exhaustion/pullback). Pivot points daily: pivot ~$90.79, R1 ~$92.49-$92.86, R2 ~$94.24, R3 ~$96.31, S1 ~$89.41, S2 ~$87.34, S3 ~$85.96. Outlook: Bullish above key MAs/Fib supports; potential pullback $85-$88 before further gains; overbought signals consolidation risk. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS. Henry Hub trading near $2.97-$2.98/MMBtu. Price action Sep 7 close $2.976-$2.98. Consolidating tight range. Bullish if support holds; resistance capping upside. Support: $2.87-$2.89 (major near-term 50-day EMA ~$2.88 SuperTrend swing lows), $2.80-$2.82 (secondary 50% Fib), $2.90-$2.93 (dynamic rising trendlines), $2.77-$2.78 (deeper $2.70 targets if $2.87 breaks). Resistance: $3.00-$3.03 (primary psychological/technical double top/supply), $3.05-$3.08 (immediate extension), $3.12-$3.20 (next major $3.03 breakout 78.6% Fib), $3.28-$3.40 (LT resistance declining 200-day MA ~$3.28). Pivot daily: ~$2.96 pivot, ~$2.89-$2.91 supports, ~$3.01-$3.04 resistances. Projections: Bullish $3.14-$3.37 on $3.03 break; Bearish $2.70-$2.62 below $2.87. 52-week range: Low ~$2.48-$2.52, High ~$7.46-$7.83. YTD 2026: Down ~17.7% from ~$3.618 start. Summary: WTI testing $93.50 resistance with bullish structure above key MAs. Overbought RSI/Stochastic suggest near-term consolidation. Support at $92.47 (50% Fib), $91, deeper $86-$87. Upside targets $97-$100. Gas consolidating $2.97 with $3.00 psychological resistance. Support holds $2.87-$2.89 (50-day EMA). Breakout above $3.03 targets $3.20+. YTD down 17.7%.

Friday, September 4, 2026. COSTA RICA ENERGY PROFILE. OIL AND NATURAL GAS: Costa Rica reports no proven oil reserves, produces only ~400 b/d petroleum liquids (unchanged YoY 2025; zero crude/NGPL). Oil consumption ~65k b/d 2024 (large deficit entirely imports); production covers <1% needs. No domestic natural gas production reported/indicated. ELECTRICITY GENERATION: 2025 electricity 98.6% renewables (hydro/geothermal/wind/biomass/solar), verified ICE/DOCSE; thermal/fossil minimal. 2025/early 2026 hydro dominated ~70-75%+ generation, wind ~12%, geothermal ~11%, biomass/solar rest; low-carbon ~98% rolling 12-month mid-2026. Installed capacity end-2025 ~3,659 MW led hydro (~2,342 MW), wind (~437 MW), thermal/backup (~531 MW), geothermal (~263 MW), small biomass/solar shares. OVERALL ENERGY SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION: 2024 baseline oil/products ~55% total supply; renewables (hydro/solar/wind/other/biofuels/waste) balance. Final consumption oil products ~67%, reflecting heavy transport use despite clean electricity. 2026 economic higher oil prices moderate GDP ~3.6% (IMF); headwind alongside factors. RENEWABLE OUTLOOK AND CAPACITY: Plans add ~600 MW new geothermal/solar/wind by 2030 (ICE/private generators) maintain high renewable shares. Fossil thermal plants mainly strategic backup; share electricity ~2% or less high-renewable periods. Imports 100% finished petroleum products; no domestic refining. REGIONAL AND SOLAR SPECIFICS: Costa Rica stands out regionally near-100% renewable electricity vs. higher fossil neighboring countries. Solar 2025 only ~0.27-0.28% electricity (~36.6 GWh total generation), 15.5 MW installed capacity. National demand ~13 TWh 2025; system supports regional exports while maintaining high domestic coverage (~97% demand met renewably). Clean energy leader. Lessons for the world.

Thursday, September 3, 2026. YEMEN OIL AND GAS PROFILE. RESERVES: Oil reserves consistently estimated at ~3 billion barrels (Masila, Marib/Sab'atayn, Shabwa basins), stable since ~2009, ranking ~27th globally. Natural gas reserves ~478.55 BCM (~16.9-17 TCF), ranking ~33rd globally (~0.22% world total), sufficient for >500 years at current rates. PRODUCTION: Oil production 2024-25 averaged ~19k-22k bpd (IMF/EII), down sharply from ~439k bpd early 2000s, ~50k+ bpd 2024 some trackers. IMF baseline ~19k bpd 2025 rising ~19.5k 2026, 20k 2027; other estimates current domestic-focused ~20k bpd or lower (7-10k bpd S&P Global recent years). Export resumption government aims ~60k bpd upon restart (~40k bpd export potential after ~20k domestic/refinery); stockpiles exceed 1.7M bbl. Gas production/consumption extremely low ~10.38 MCM 2024 (unchanged YoY), fully matched domestic consumption; primarily associated gas, minimal standalone, no imports/exports. Domestic distribution Yemen Gas ongoing truck-based provinces (hundreds trailers monthly Aden/Taiz/Hadramout mid-2026), limited local supply reliance. UNDISCOVERED RESOURCES: USGS mean estimates ~261M bbl oil, 4.5 TCF gas, ~122M bbl NGLs across key basins (Sab'atayn, Say'un-Masila, Jiza-Qamar). HISTORICAL AND OUTLOOK: Production peaked ~450k bpd ~2002; sharp drops since 2015 (war, infrastructure attacks, export terminal closures). Main production/reserves Sab'atayn (Marib), Say'un-Masila (Masila/Hadramout), Shabwa; mature province declining fields. LNG/gas infrastructure limited; Yemen LNG noted but minimal amid conflict. Economic context IMF 2026 oil production factors low GDP growth (~0.5% or negative conflict scenarios); revenues critical but hampered. Security/outlook exports/production ramp (potentially +25%) depend stability; Houthi issues/conflict continue disrupt. Wood Mackenzie describes Yemen mature war-affected province shut-ins since 2015, limited IOC activity. Global comparisons oil reserves ~0.17% world total; gas production ranks ~90th. Conflict-ravaged reserves. Time to watch carefully.

Wednesday, September 2, 2026. CRUDE OIL SPIKE. September 2, 2026: Closed at approximately $89.39 USD per barrel. Open: approximately $89.24. High: approximately $89.61. Low: approximately $89.22. Change: plus 0.1754 percent. September 1, 2026 futures (front month/Oct contract): Settlement around $90.22-$90.68 USD (various sources including MarketWatch, WSJ, Trading Economics); intraday gains noted amid market moves. September 1, 2026 spot/futures close: approximately $89.37-$89.44 USD. August 31, 2026: Spot/futures around $85.43-$85.76 USD. August 25-28, 2026 range: Spot prices approximately $82.23-$83.90 USD. FRED/EIA WTI Cushing spot (latest available as of searches): Up to Aug 25, 2026 at $83.90 USD (daily series lags; next update expected around Sep 2). Weekly/monthly benchmarks: Earlier July–Aug 2026 WTI around $80-$85+ USD, with volatility. NATURAL GAS UPDATE. September 2, 2026: Not yet available in public sources (EIA daily spot prices typically released with short lag; next scheduled release September 2). Monthly Henry Hub spot price (YCharts/EIA): July 2026 = $2.963/MMBtu (down 7.57 percent from June; next monthly release September 2). Natural gas futures (Investing.com/CME, front month): September 1, 2026 close approximately $2.89 (range $2.86-$2.92). Daily Henry Hub spot price (YCharts/EIA): August 25, 2026 = $2.70 (down from $2.83 prior day; next daily release September 2). Monthly Henry Hub Gulf Coast spot (YCharts/EIA): June 2026 = $3.15 (latest available monthly). FRED/EIA monthly series (MHHNGSP): July 2026 = $2.89. EIA daily spot/futures tables: Latest reported daily Henry Hub spots in late August 2026 around $2.6-$2.9 range. CME daily bulletin (settlements as of Aug 31, 2026): Nearby Henry Hub futures (e.g., Oct 2026) around $2.935. GEOPOLITICAL: RENEWED US-IRAN HOSTILITIES (EARLY SEPTEMBER 2026). Oil prices rise on supply disruption fears: Brent crude gained ~0.6-2.4 percent (to ~$91-92.66/bbl) and WTI ~1-2.9 percent (to ~$86-88/bbl) on Tuesday (Sept 1) after first direct US-Iran attacks in a month on Sunday and US President Trump's threats of further strikes; markets erased prior-week losses amid Middle East tensions. Strait of Hormuz traffic collapses: Visible commodity vessels transiting strait fell to ~5 per day (vs. 10-day average of ~14), per Kpler data; waterway normally carries ~1/5 of global oil/LNG supplies; Iran closed it after earlier attacks, and mediation by Qatar/Oman has failed to reopen. Tankers struck in Hormuz: Two supertankers (including Saudi oil carriers) were hit by projectiles on Monday while exiting strait; UKMTO-reported tanker struck by three projectiles on Tuesday, highlighting ongoing shipping risks. Iranian crude exports stall for record period: No meaningful Iranian crude cargoes have transited Hormuz strait to China for ~7 weeks (since mid-July US blockade reinstatement), per Kpler/Vortexa/TankerTrackers data; August loadings estimated at 220k-255k bpd (down sharply from prior months); exports rely on depleting floating storage. US-Iran economic/military pressure intensifies: Trump threatened additional strikes; US signaled sanctions on Iran's trading partners and broader economic measures; Iranian President Pezeshkian signaled willingness to reciprocate if US returns to June interim peace deal. Broader Middle East supply and refining impacts: Conflict has damaged or constrained Gulf refineries and product exports (e.g., diesel/jet fuel); regional refinery runs fell sharply earlier in 2026; analysts note refined products shortages as key blind spot beyond crude. OPEC+ production adjustments amid disruptions: In early August, OPEC+ (key members including Saudi Arabia/Russia) agreed to further 188k bpd output hike for September to unwind prior cuts, though actual flows remain constrained by Hormuz issues and war; Gulf producers seeking alternative export routes (e.g., Iraq approvals). Partial recovery attempts and limits: Post-June MoU/ceasefire efforts saw some traffic rebound, but renewed strikes have reversed gains; shut-in Middle East production remains elevated, with full pre-war flows (~15-20+ mb/d through Hormuz) unlikely without sustained de-escalation. Iran's export challenges and sanctions context: Longstanding US sanctions (plus recent designations) compound blockade effects; Iran's "dark fleet" and China-focused sales face severe limits; exports have dropped dramatically from pre-war or earlier 2026 peaks. Market and analyst views: Prices reflect risk premium but limited follow-through buying suggests bets on contained (not total) disruption; situation remains fluid, with potential for further volatility tied to Hormuz access and diplomatic efforts. Capital preservation first. Do not short into active conflict.

Tuesday, September 1, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Price context ~$84.90-$86.29 recently (e.g., 85.63 one platform), intraday ranges 84.13-86.78. RSI14 ~54.9-58 neutral-to-buy signal; some 57-62 shorter timeframes showing rising momentum or sideways ~50-62. MACD12/26 positive/buy signals multiple sources (e.g., +0.65 or rising positive territory 4H); one daily +0.80 with mixed oscillators. Moving averages strong buy on daily timeframe (8-11 buy vs. fewer sells); shorter MAs 5/10-day often sell/mixed, 20/50/100/200-day mostly buy. Specific MAs approximate recent: MA5 ~86.0 sell/mixed, MA10 ~85.9 sell/mixed, MA20 ~85.2 buy, MA50 ~83.9 buy, MA100 ~82.8 buy, MA200 ~83.5-84.2 buy. Barchart Sep26 futures 5-day MA 85.10, 20-day 82.30, 50-day 78.63, 100-day 81.69, 200-day 72.46; 14-day RSI/stochastic 60-92 range (overbought shorter periods). Support levels key clusters ~82.67 (recent support/Bullish Engulfing), 80.00-80.53, 79.28-79.95 (61.8% Fib/50-day MA confluence), 78.42-78.95 (200-day MA zone), lower 76-73. Resistance levels key clusters ~85.09 (initial breakout target), 86.99 (key weekly resistance/Dark Cloud Cover), 87.30-90.46, higher 92-94+. Patterns symmetrical triangle consolidation (breakout potential by mid-September), prior rising wedge breakdown testing supports, Bear Flag on weekly chart targeting lower levels long-term. Oscillators daily mixed/neutral (e.g., Stochastic ~60-71 buy, CCI neutral, ADX mixed ~23-29); some sell on MACD momentum or oversold Stochastic RSI. LiteFinance Sep1 2026 forecast potential continuation higher; daily range ~78.42-89.72 (average ~84.07). Longer-term weekly view mixed signals with possible downside bias below 79.28 (Bear Flag target toward 51+ long-term); supports 75.19, 71.26 etc.; resistances 83.53, 86.99+. Pivot points classic pivot ~85.92; supports S1 ~85.46 / S2 ~84.94; resistances R1 ~86.44 / R2 ~86.90. Overall signal consensus recent daily moving averages strong buy; oscillators neutral-to-buy; summary often "buy" or "strong buy." Caveats signals can shift quickly with news (geopolitics, OPEC+); some sources note weakening momentum or consolidation risks into early September. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Price context trading in ~$2.70-$2.95 range amid storage surpluses and weather-driven volatility. Key Resistance Levels $2.912-$2.94 near-term/major resistance; 50-day MA area in several analyses; breakout target after recent moves above $2.85-$2.90. $2.99-$3.00 psychological and technical barrier; often cited as key upside test or cap. $3.06 next retracement/resistance zone target on stronger breakouts. ~$3.12 200-day EMA or moving average resistance (declining in some charts). Higher zones (less immediate) ~$3.20-$3.38 (prior swing highs or retracement areas from earlier 2026 trading). Key Support Levels $2.80-$2.90 (or tighter $2.87-$2.90 zone) high-volume congestion/support area; recent pivot and holding zone. ~$2.811-$2.816 SuperTrend or short-term technical support; potential retest level. $2.650-$2.67 near-term downside target on breaks. ~$2.616 cited technical floor/support for September futures. ~$2.576 major watched support; repeated defense noted in analyses. Lower targets (if broken) ~$2.50 or $2.30 (longer-term or extended downside zones). Additional context from recent charts/analyses Recent price action (late Aug 2026) showed breakouts above $2.85-$2.90 followed by tests near $2.99, with indecision in tight ranges. Moving averages (e.g., 50-day around $2.90-$2.95 range in spots, 200-day higher) often factor into these levels. Indicators like RSI/MACD often factor into these levels. Broader 2026 context includes supply glut keeping prices capped below $3 in many forecasts, with storage concerns weighing on upside. EIA PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT (Week Ending Aug 21, Released Aug 26, with revision dated Aug 28): U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excl. SPR) 428.9 million barrels (week ending Aug 21), up +0.1 million barrels (+95,000 barrels) WoW from 428.8 million (Aug 14). Year-over-year comparison (commercial crude, excl. SPR) +10.6 million barrels (+2.5%) vs. 418.3 million barrels on Aug 22, 2025. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude 289.7 million barrels, down -3.7 million barrels WoW from 293.4 million (and down sharply YoY from 404.2 million). Total U.S. crude oil stocks (incl. SPR) 718.6 million barrels (down -3.6 million WoW). Position vs. five-year average commercial crude inventories 1% above five-year average for time of year. Total petroleum stocks (incl. SPR) 1,535.1 million barrels (down -3.6 million WoW; down -127.8 million YoY). Total motor gasoline inventories 206.8 million barrels (down -2.5 million WoW; 6% below five-year average). Distillate fuel oil inventories 103.4 million barrels (down -2.2 million WoW; ~14% below five-year average). U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.4 million barrels per day (97.4% of operable capacity). U.S. crude oil production estimate 13.8 million barrels per day (up slightly WoW). Additional c...

Monday, August 31, 2026. WEEK 35 OPENS. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: August 28, 2026 $83.40 (open ~$83.67, high ~$83.78, low ~$82.25; volume ~142K). August 29, 2026 No trading data available (weekend/non-trading day; markets typically closed). August 30, 2026 $84.81 (open ~$84.60, high ~$85.68, low ~$84.60). August 31, 2026 Limited or no finalized settlement data available yet (current/recent trading day as of Aug 31; intraday or spot quotes around ~$84-85 in some feeds, but not confirmed daily close in historical tables). Notes These are primarily front-month futures settlement prices, standard benchmark for WTI crude oil quotes; spot prices (e.g., Cushing, OK) may vary slightly and often reported with lag. Context Weekend dates (e.g., Aug 29) have no futures trading; Aug 31 data may update later once markets close. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: August 28, 2026 Futures/continuous contract (NG00) settlement/close of $2.888 (daily range: open ~$2.906, high $2.932, low $2.836). August 29-31, 2026 No official EIA spot prices yet available in search results (lagged release); Markets Insider reported Henry Hub indication/price of ~$2.87 as of Aug 30 (with nearby snapshots showing values around 2.87-2.89). Recent prior EIA spot prices (for context, as of latest release) Aug 25 2.70, Aug 24 2.83, Aug 21 2.82. Notes Reflect standard Henry Hub benchmarks (spot or front-month futures/settlements); prices can vary slightly by source (spot vs. futures) and subject to market movements. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Overall status (Aug 31 reports) Effectively closed to normal commercial traffic; 7-day average arrivals ~5/day (~7% of pre-crisis ~74/day per IMF PortWatch); war-risk insurance premiums remained extremely high (e.g., multiples of normal), deterring most operators; Brent crude ~$90.17. Weekend traffic (reported Aug 31) Visible commodity vessel transits dropped to ~5 per day over weekend (Kpler/Reuters data); limited to small-sized vessels; figures could be higher due to AIS-off transits. Aug 28 reports (covering recent prior days) ~7 commodity vessels transited on one day (e.g., Thursday data reported Aug 28), below 10-day average of ~15; mix included medium-range tankers, VLGC, and chemical tankers (Kpler). Live tracker examples (Aug 30-31 crossings) Specific recent transits included outbound crude/product tankers such as SAVONA (small crude, ~0.03M bbl est.), KIKU (VLCC/ULCC, ~2.10M bbl est.), MIRAAN (crude tanker, ~0.26M bbl), ELMO (product/chem tanker, ~0.33M bbl); inbound VLCCs and others noted; total 24h crossings low (~14-15 visible, mixed types). Tanker-specific flows Minimal crude oil exports; US CENTCOM and other reports indicated zero Iranian crude tankers breaking blockade lines in period (some LPG/product tankers with dark patterns departed); many tankers loitering or in floating storage nearby. Incidents near dates Kuwaiti-flagged tanker AL SALAM II struck (above waterline) eastbound ~Aug 26; additional projectile strikes reported ~Aug 25-26 period; US strikes on Iranian rocket launchers/targets on/near Larak Island in strait ~Aug 30-31. Broader context (UKMTO/Windward/etc.) AIS-detected transits ~90% below pre-conflict baselines; preference for northern routes or dark transits; hundreds of vessels stranded/loitering in/near Gulf. IMF PortWatch lag Latest published detailed daily data around Aug 23 showed only 3 transits (1 tanker, 2 cargo); Aug 28-31 figures pending but consistent with ~5/day 7-day average. Vessel/anchorage snapshot Dozens to over 1,000 vessels indexed in broader area (many anchored); few actively transiting; tankers formed notable but reduced share of movements. Market impact Sustained low flows contributed to elevated oil prices (~$90 Brent); bypass pipelines (e.g., Saudi, UAE) operating at high utilization where possible. Context Roughly day 183-184 since Feb. 28, 2026, closure; visible (AIS-detected) transits remained at historic lows of around 5 or fewer vessels per day—roughly 4-7% of pre-crisis levels of ~70-85+ daily. THE READ: Crude Aug 28 $83.40, open $83.67, high $83.78, low $82.25, volume 142K; Aug 29 no trading, weekend/non-trading day, markets closed; Aug 30 $84.81, open $84.60, high $85.68, low $84.60; Aug 31 limited/no finalized settlement, current/recent trading day, intraday/spot ~$84-85, not confirmed daily close; front-month futures settlement prices, standard WTI benchmark, spot prices Cushing OK may vary slightly, often reported with lag; weekend dates no futures trading, Aug 31 data may update later once markets close. Gas Aug 28 futures/continuous NG00 settlement/close $2.888, daily range open ~$2.906, high $2.932, low $2.836; Aug 29-31 no official EIA spot prices yet available, lagged release, Markets Insider reported Henry Hub indication/price ~$2.87 as of Aug 30, nearby snapshots ~2.87-2.89; recent prior EIA spot prices context latest release Aug 25 2.70, Aug 24 2.83, Aug 21 2.82; standard Henry Hub benchmarks spot or front-month futures/settlements, prices vary slightly b...

Friday, August 28, 2026. OMAN ENERGY PROFILE: Oman's oil and natural gas production showed notable growth in first half of 2026, driven by higher output, stable exports, and project developments. OIL PRODUCTION: H1 2026 (Jan–Jun) Total oil production reached 198.01 million barrels, up 10.6% YoY from 179.05 million barrels in H1 2025. Average daily oil production in H1 2026 Nearly 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), up more than 10% from 989,200 bpd in H1 2025; peak monthly average was 1.172 million bpd in May. First five months of 2026 (Jan–May) Total oil production of 163.6 million barrels, up 9.7% YoY; average daily output ~1.08 million bpd (vs. 987,600 bpd prior year). April 2026 Crude oil production at 1,071,000 bbl/d (up from 1,053,000 bbl/d in March). End-2025 baseline Daily production exceeded 1 million bpd by December 2025; full-year 2025 production up 0.9% YoY, with average Omani crude price at USD 71/barrel. Longer-term targets/plans Aims to boost oil production by over 20% by 2026, targeting around 1.2 million bpd (via field development and EOR projects). Context Production increases occurred as OPEC+ quotas were lifted or adjusted; some earlier OPEC+ references noted lower compliance levels (e.g., ~821,000 bpd in specific months), but actual output exceeded these. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: H1 2026 Natural gas production reached 29.54 billion cubic meters (bcm), up 6.7% YoY, continuing strong upward trajectory. First four months of 2026 (Jan–Apr) Output at 18.77 bcm, up 4.6% YoY. Full-year 2025 baseline Local natural gas production plus imports totaled 57.05 bcm, up 0.9% YoY; industrial consumption rose 11.9%, power generation 2.6%, oilfields 8.6%. January 2026 note January 2026 saw 3.2% YoY decline to 4.455 bcm (including imports), but growth resumed in subsequent months. BROADER ENERGY/OIL & GAS SECTOR CONTEXT: Block 61 gas project Supplies ~1.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d), targeting 1.5 bcf/d by 2026 (Phase 2/3 expansions support LNG and domestic use). Market growth Oman oil and gas market size projected to rise from ~USD 5.85 billion in 2025 to USD 6.01 billion in 2026. Global demand backdrop OPEC forecasts global oil demand growth of 1.4 million bpd in 2026, supporting producer output increases. THE READ: Oman oil production H1 2026 reached 198.01M barrels, up 10.6% YoY from 179.05M barrels H1 2025; average daily oil production H1 2026 nearly 1.1M bpd, up more than 10% from 989,200 bpd H1 2025, peak monthly average 1.172M bpd May; first five months 2026 total oil production 163.6M barrels, up 9.7% YoY, average daily output ~1.08M bpd vs. 987,600 bpd prior year; April 2026 crude oil production 1,071,000 bbl/d, up from 1,053,000 bbl/d March; end-2025 baseline daily production exceeded 1M bpd December 2025, full-year 2025 production up 0.9% YoY, average Omani crude price USD 71/barrel; longer-term targets aims boost oil production over 20% 2026, targeting around 1.2M bpd via field development and EOR projects; production increases occurred OPEC+ quotas lifted or adjusted, some earlier OPEC+ references noted lower compliance levels ~821,000 bpd specific months, but actual output exceeded these; natural gas production H1 2026 reached 29.54 bcm, up 6.7% YoY, continuing strong upward trajectory; first four months 2026 January to April output 18.77 bcm, up 4.6% YoY; full-year 2025 baseline local natural gas production plus imports totaled 57.05 bcm, up 0.9% YoY, industrial consumption rose 11.9%, power generation 2.6%, oilfields 8.6%; January 2026 note January 2026 saw 3.2% YoY decline 4.455 bcm including imports, but growth resumed subsequent months; Block 61 gas project supplies ~1.2 bcf/d, targeting 1.5 bcf/d 2026, phase 2/3 expansions support LNG and domestic use; market growth Oman oil and gas market size projected rise ~USD 5.85B 2025 to USD 6.01B 2026; global demand backdrop OPEC forecasts global oil demand growth 1.4M bpd 2026, supporting producer output increases. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Thursday, August 27, 2026. TUNISIA ENERGY PROFILE: Tunisia's oil and natural gas production in 2026 shows continued decline amid rising import dependence. OIL PRODUCTION: Oil production declined to ~1.4 million tonnes (Mt) in 2025 after 2021 rebound, continuing long-term downward trend of ~6%/year since 2007. Crude oil output reached 489,000 tonnes to end-May 2026 (-7% YoY), with daily average production at 25.3 thousand barrels per day (kb/d), down from 26.7 kb/d prior year. 2026 estimates put crude oil production at ~27,700 b/d (valued at ~$789 million annually at $78/bbl). Crude oil production was ~25 kb/d as of April 2026 (stable month-on-month per EIA-linked data). Energy independence fell to 34% by end-June 2026 (down from 38% year earlier), with crude production down ~6% YoY. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Natural gas production fell to 1.6 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2025 (halved since 2010; -11% that year), with further weakness into 2026. Natural gas resources (production + Algerian transit royalty) totaled 698 ktep-pci to end-May 2026 (-14% YoY). National commercial dry gas production was roughly stable to end-May 2026, with gains in fields like Nawara (+10%) and Chergui (+26%) offset by declines elsewhere (e.g., Hasdrubal -17%). Tunisia produced ~1.0 bcm of gas in 2026 while consuming ~5.0 bcm, requiring net imports of ~3.9 bcm (mostly from Algeria). RESERVES: Proven oil reserves stood at ~410 million barrels in 2026 (projected to fall to 380 million by 2035). Proven gas reserves were ~60 bcm in 2026 (projected to decline to 50 bcm by 2035). PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY: Primary energy supply was ~11 Mtoe in 2025 (declining ~2%/year since 2021), with gas at ~50% and oil at ~42% of mix. OFFSHORE EXPLORATION: Joint Oil (Tunisia-Libya) launched new international tender in August/September 2026 for ~3,000 km² Gabès-Tripoli offshore block, targeting resources estimated at >1.6 billion barrels of oil and 3.1 trillion cubic feet of gas. KEY FIELDS: Key fields include Nawara (gas capacity ~2.7 million m³/day plus oil/liquids) and others like Ashtart, El Borma, and Hasdrubal showing mixed or declining output. BROADER CONTEXT: Production declines driven by mature fields, limited new discoveries, and no major new drilling; country increasingly relies on Algerian gas imports and royalties while pursuing renewables to ease deficit. THE READ: Tunisia oil production declined ~1.4Mt 2025 after 2021 rebound, continuing long-term downward trend ~6%/year since 2007; crude oil output reached 489,000 tonnes end-May 2026, down 7% YoY, daily average 25.3 kb/d, down from 26.7 kb/d prior year; 2026 estimates ~27,700 b/d, valued ~$789M annually at $78/bbl; crude oil production ~25 kb/d April 2026, stable month-on-month EIA-linked data; energy independence fell 34% end-June 2026, down from 38% year earlier, crude production down ~6% YoY; natural gas production fell 1.6 bcm 2025, halved since 2010, down 11% that year, further weakness 2026; natural gas resources production plus Algerian transit royalty totaled 698 ktep-pci end-May 2026, down 14% YoY; national commercial dry gas production roughly stable end-May 2026, gains Nawara +10% and Chergui +26% offset declines elsewhere, Hasdrubal -17%; Tunisia produced ~1.0 bcm gas 2026 while consuming ~5.0 bcm, requiring net imports ~3.9 bcm, mostly Algeria; proven oil reserves ~410M barrels 2026, projected fall 380M 2035; proven gas reserves ~60 bcm 2026, projected decline 50 bcm 2035; primary energy supply ~11 Mtoe 2025, declining ~2%/year since 2021, gas ~50% and oil ~42% mix; Joint Oil Tunisia-Libya launched new international tender August/September 2026 ~3,000 km² Gabès-Tripoli offshore block, targeting resources estimated >1.6B barrels oil and 3.1 TCF gas; key fields Nawara gas capacity ~2.7M m³/day plus oil/liquids, others Ashtart, El Borma, and Hasdrubal showing mixed or declining output; production declines driven by mature fields, limited new discoveries, and no major new drilling, country increasingly relies on Algerian gas imports and royalties while pursuing renewables to ease deficit. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Wednesday, August 26, 2026. QUEBEC ENERGY PROFILE: Quebec has effectively no oil or natural gas production due to 2022 provincial ban on exploration and extraction; province relies on imports. LEGISLATIVE BAN: Quebec's 2022 law (Bill 21 / Act ending exploration for petroleum...) permanently bans oil, gas, and brine exploration/production; remains in effect unless repealed or amended. NO COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION: Quebec has significant untapped hydrocarbon resources (e.g., St. Lawrence Lowlands, Gaspé Peninsula) but no meaningful commercial oil or natural gas output due to ban, technical, environmental, and political barriers. IMPORT RELIANCE: Province imports nearly all its natural gas; ban ensures continued dependence on external supply. POLITICAL & REPEAL DISCUSSIONS: Calls to repeal ban for economic benefits (e.g., MEI estimates potential $93 billion GDP boost over 25 years from development); new premier Christine Frèchette has signaled openness to natural gas development. NATIONAL CANADIAN CONTEXT (OIL): Canadian oil production projected to grow modestly in 2026 (e.g., ~1.7% per IEA; ~3.5% per some industry modeling), driven by oil sands and other provinces; Quebec contributes negligibly or zero. NATIONAL CANADIAN CONTEXT (NATURAL GAS): Marketable natural gas production rising nationally (e.g., records in early 2026 data from BC and Alberta); CER scenarios show continued growth through 2026 and beyond, again excluding Quebec output. CER CANADA'S ENERGY FUTURE 2026: Provides provincial breakdowns (including QC) under multiple scenarios; crude oil and natural gas production projections for Quebec are minimal/absent compared to Alberta/BC. ECONOMIC/POLITICAL ANALYSES: Reports highlight Quebec's reserves but note hostile regulatory climate prevents development; repeal would require new legal framework to attract investment. STATCAN ENERGY STATS (NATIONAL, EARLY 2026): Crude oil and equivalent production at record levels nationally (e.g., 27.0 million m³ in Jan 2026); natural gas at highs (e.g., 760.5 million GJ in Jan); no Quebec-specific production noted. BROADER INDUSTRY OUTLOOK: Canadian drilling/spending forecasts for 2026 show modest declines or stability amid prices; Quebec activity remains at zero. POTENTIAL RESOURCES: Estimates exist for Quebec hydrocarbons, but commercial viability uncertain and development legally blocked. NO 2026-SPECIFIC QUEBEC PRODUCTION FORECASTS: Searches yield no active output projections for province, consistent with ban. INDUSTRY CALLS FOR CHANGE: Advocacy groups (e.g., MEI, IEDM) argue for repeal to capitalize on global gas demand growth projected to 2050. OVERALL: Quebec's energy focus remains on renewables/hydro; hydrocarbon production stays banned and nonexistent through 2026 and beyond absent policy shifts. THE READ: Quebec effectively no oil and natural gas production due to 2022 provincial ban on exploration and extraction, province relies on imports; 2022 law Bill 21 Act ending exploration for petroleum permanently bans oil, gas, and brine exploration and production, remains in effect unless repealed or amended; significant untapped hydrocarbon resources St. Lawrence Lowlands, Gaspé Peninsula, no meaningful commercial oil or natural gas output due to ban, technical, environmental, and political barriers; province imports nearly all its natural gas, ban ensures continued dependence on external supply; calls to repeal ban for economic benefits, MEI estimates potential $93 billion GDP boost over 25 years from development, new premier Christine Frèchette signaled openness to natural gas development; Canadian oil production projected to grow modestly 2026, approximately 1.7% per IEA, approximately 3.5% per some industry modeling, driven by oil sands and other provinces, Quebec contributes negligibly or zero; marketable natural gas production rising nationally, records early 2026 data BC and Alberta, CER scenarios show continued growth through 2026 and beyond, again excluding Quebec output; CER Canada's Energy Future 2026 provides provincial breakdowns including QC under multiple scenarios, crude oil and natural gas production projections for Quebec minimal/absent compared to Alberta/BC; reports highlight Quebec's reserves but note hostile regulatory climate prevents development, repeal would require new legal framework to attract investment; crude oil and equivalent production at record levels nationally, 27.0 million m³ Jan 2026, natural gas at highs, 760.5 million GJ Jan, no Quebec-specific production noted; Canadian drilling/spending forecasts 2026 show modest declines or stability amid prices, Quebec activity remains at zero; estimates exist for Quebec hydrocarbons, but commercial viability uncertain and development legally blocked; searches yield no active output projections for province, consistent with ban; advocacy groups MEI, IEDM argue for repeal to capitalize on global gas demand growth projected to 2050; Quebec's energy focus remains on renewables/hydro, hyd...

Tuesday, August 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Current price context Latest ~$85.62 (down ~1.65% on day); intraday range ~$84.71-$86.56; Aug 24 reference/closing levels around $85.23. RSI(14) 46.691 — Neutral (neither overbought >70 nor oversold <30). MACD(12,26) -0.25 — Sell signal (negative, indicating bearish momentum). MA5 (Simple) $85.41 — Buy. MA5 (Exponential) $85.47 — Buy. MA10 (Simple) $85.41 — Buy. MA10 (Exponential) $85.53 — Buy. MA20 (Simple) $85.83 — Sell. MA20 (Exponential) $85.71 — Sell. MA50 (Simple) $86.25 — Sell. MA50 (Exponential) $85.83 — Sell. MA100 (Simple) $85.45 — Buy. MA100 (Exponential) $85.31 — Buy. MA200 (Simple) $83.95 — Buy. MA200 (Exponential) $84.08 — Buy. Overall summary Mixed/neutral bias — Moving averages lean Buy (8 buy vs. 4 sell), while technical indicators lean Sell/neutral (mixed oscillator signals). Recent context Day of downside pressure; recent closes/levels around $84.8-$86 range. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Current price context Trading near $2.76-$2.81/MMBtu amid well-supplied market and seasonal shoulder-period dynamics. Key Support Levels: $2.50 Major/multiyear structural support; tested multiple times without sustained break; aligns with longer-term lows and analyst targets for September contract. $2.56-$2.563 Lower 20-day Bollinger Band area (noted in July 2026 analysis for September contract; relevant near rollover). $2.68-$2.70s Near-term range lows and technical thresholds. $2.71-$2.74 Recent intraday lows and pivot-derived supports (e.g., Classic S3 around 2.74-2.746). $2.756-$2.761 Classic/Fibonacci pivot supports (S2/S1 levels from recent technical summaries). $2.763-$2.77 Camarilla/near-term daily supports and moving average clusters. Key Resistance Levels: $2.78-$2.79 Immediate pivot R1/R2 and recent highs in $2.70s-$2.80s consolidation zone. $2.99-$3.00 Initial/strong resistance (middle Bollinger Band area); psychological round-number level and noted ceiling for near-term contracts. $3.14-$3.35 Broader resistance zone tied to moving averages, forecasts, and prior trading ranges. $3.44-$3.50 Higher structural/psychological resistance; aligns with some longer-term forecasts and round numbers. Additional Context: Pivot points Recent Investing.com data for Micro/Natural Gas futures cluster tightly around 2.75-2.78, reflecting current low-volatility range. Range-bound theme Much of recent action confined between roughly $2.60-$2.80, with oversold momentum indicators suggesting limited follow-through on breakdowns. Psychological/round-number levels $2.00, $2.50, $3.00, $3.50 often act as magnets or barriers in NG trading. Technical bias Leaned neutral-to-bearish short-term due to supply but with potential upside from demand or momentum shifts. EIA PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT (Week Ending Aug 14, Released Aug 19): U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) Rose by 4.4 million barrels week-over-week to 428.8 million barrels. Five-year average comparison This inventory level matches five-year average for time of year. Crude oil refinery inputs Averaged 17.4 million barrels per day (up 215,000 bpd from prior week), with refineries operating at ~97.2% of operable capacity. Total commercial petroleum inventories Increased by 8.8 million barrels. Motor gasoline inventories Rose by 0.7 million barrels and stood 5% below five-year average. Distillate fuel inventories Fell by 1.5 million barrels and were about 13% below five-year average. Propane/propylene inventories Increased by 2.0 million barrels and were 31% above five-year average. U.S. crude oil imports Averaged 6.6 million barrels per day (down 746,000 bpd from prior week). WTI crude oil spot price (Cushing) $83.99 per barrel. Motor gasoline supplied (4-week average) 8.9 million barrels per day (down 0.9% year-over-year). Distillate supplied (4-week average) 3.7 million barrels per day (down 0.8% y/y). Next report For week ending Aug 21, scheduled for release Aug 26, 2026. THE READ: Crude technicals Latest $85.62, down 1.65% on day, intraday range $84.71-$86.56, Aug 24 reference/closing $85.23; RSI 14 46.691 neutral, neither overbought nor oversold; MACD 12/26 -0.25 sell signal, negative, bearish momentum; MA5 simple $85.41 buy, exponential $85.47 buy; MA10 simple $85.41 buy, exponential $85.53 buy; MA20 simple $85.83 sell, exponential $85.71 sell; MA50 simple $86.25 sell, exponential $85.83 sell; MA100 simple $85.45 buy, exponential $85.31 buy; MA200 simple $83.95 buy, exponential $84.08 buy; overall mixed/neutral bias, moving averages lean buy 8 vs. 4 sell, technical indicators lean sell/neutral, mixed oscillator signals; day downside pressure, recent closes/levels $84.8-$86. Gas technicals Trading $2.76-$2.81/MMBtu, well-supplied market, seasonal shoulder-period dynamics; support $2.50 major/multiyear structural, tested multiple times without sustained break, longer-term lows and analyst targets September contract; $2.56-$2.563 lower 20-day Bollinger Band, July 2026 analysis September contract, re...

Monday, August 24, 2026. WEEK 34 OPENS. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI at $85.42-$85.66 as of Aug 24 (intraday or close); one live update $84.97 spot with range $84.89-$86.15. Aug 21 futures close ~$87.06; spot/futures references ~$86.34-$86.76 (one source lists $86.66-$86.76). Aug 20 futures close ~$86.83; other references ~$85.97-$87.83. Aug 23 ~$85.79-$86.02 (daily range examples: low ~$85.78, high ~$86.14 or $86.56). Aug 19 ~$84.08-$84.39. Aug 18 ~$84.06-$84.38. Aug 17 ~$84.01-$84.50. Aug 14 ~$81.53-$82.40. GuruFocus oil price (WTI futures proxy) on/around Aug 21 $86.76 (down ~1.22% from prior day). YCharts WTI spot (Aug 20) $89.75 (noted as potentially higher/outlier vs. other benchmarks). Twelve Data WTI/USD (Aug 24 close example) ~$84.97. FRED/EIA WTI spot references (weekly/daily, e.g., around mid-August) ~$83.99-$86.48. Broader trend Prices notably higher than year-ago levels (~+35% YoY in some reports). General trend Futures closes tended to be in high $86s earlier in period before easing; spot prices often bit lower. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Aug 18 (latest available daily spot) $2.82. Aug 17 $2.77. Aug 14 $2.79. Aug 13 $2.82. Aug 12 $2.82. CME Henry Hub Natural Gas futures (e.g., prompt-month contracts) around Aug 21-23, 2026 Settlements or last prices in ~$2.75-$2.76 range, with modest daily changes. Broader 2026 forecasts (EIA STEO) Project annual average around $3.44/MMBtu, with Q3 2026 averaging near $2.87. Note EIA releases daily spot price data with lag (typically updated mid-week for prior period); next release expected around Aug 26; no trading on weekends. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Aug 21 US officials reported ~40 oil tankers carrying ~16 million barrels of crude transited southern channel. Aug 21-22 overnight Windward intelligence noted 9 vessels transited southern corridor "dark" (7 inbound, 2 outbound)—largest single-night count on record at time. Aug 21 Windward recorded 5 vessels transiting (including Panama-flagged product tanker, sanctioned LPG carrier, others; mix of AIS-visible and dark). Aug 22 One analysis contrasted ~36 vessels (per broader or prior-day data) with sharp drop next day. Aug 23 Commercial AIS data showed only 7 total vessels entering or exiting (4 inbound, 3 outbound), with no dedicated oil tankers among them—mostly general cargo, bulk carriers, tugs, Iranian "other" vessels (specific examples RAMA 3, AL WATHBA, AL DAHABI, smaller Iranian craft). Broader early-to-mid August context (Aug 1-19) 236 total ships transited (~12 per day vs. ~130 pre-war norm); 112 were oil/gas tankers, with most using unconfirmed/dark routes. US military "stealth" operations (ongoing into August) Reportedly enabled 15-20 tankers per night via southern channel in recent weeks, supporting millions of barrels oil movement despite restrictions. Overall August trend Volumes remained low (e.g., month-to-date averages around 12 or fewer commodity vessels/day per Kpler; further drops noted mid-month due to tensions). Live trackers (as of ~Aug 23-24) Some dashboards showed strait effectively closed or at 0.4-1.7% of normal throughput (e.g., 1 ship or minimal DWT in 24h periods), with heavy reliance on facilitated or dark movements. Persistent factors High war-risk insurance, attacks/incidents, Iranian threats, competing US/Iran claims over control continued to suppress open commercial tanker traffic. Pre-crisis baseline Roughly 60-140 vessels per day. THE READ: Crude WTI $85.42-$85.66 Aug 24, intraday or close, live update $84.97 spot, range $84.89-$86.15; Aug 21 futures close $87.06, spot/futures $86.34-$86.76; Aug 20 futures $86.83, references $85.97-$87.83; Aug 23 $85.79-$86.02, low $85.78, high $86.14 or $86.56; Aug 19 $84.08-$84.39; Aug 18 $84.06-$84.38; Aug 17 $84.01-$84.50; Aug 14 $81.53-$82.40; GuruFocus $86.76 down 1.22%; YCharts $89.75 potentially higher/outlier; Twelve Data $84.97; FRED EIA $83.99-$86.48; notably higher year-ago, +35% YoY; futures high $86s earlier, easing, spot often lower. Gas Aug 18 $2.82, Aug 17 $2.77, Aug 14 $2.79, Aug 13 $2.82, Aug 12 $2.82; CME Henry Hub futures Aug 21-23 $2.75-$2.76, modest daily changes; EIA STEO annual average $3.44/MMBtu, Q3 2026 near $2.87; EIA releases daily spot data with lag, typically mid-week, next around Aug 26, no weekend trading. Hormuz Aug 21 US officials 40 oil tankers, 16M barrels crude, southern channel; Aug 21-22 overnight Windward 9 vessels southern corridor dark, 7 inbound 2 outbound, largest single-night record; Aug 21 Windward 5 vessels, Panama-flagged product tanker, sanctioned LPG carrier, others, AIS-visible and dark; Aug 22 36 vessels prior-day data, sharp drop next day; Aug 23 commercial AIS 7 total vessels, 4 inbound 3 outbound, no dedicated oil tankers, general cargo bulk carriers tugs Iranian other, RAMA 3, AL WATHBA, AL DAHABI, smaller Iranian; Aug 1-19 236 total ships, 12 per day vs. 130 pre-war, 112 oil/gas tankers, unconfirmed/dark routes; US military stealth operations 15-20 tankers per night southern channel recent w...

Friday, August 21, 2026. SRI LANKA ENERGY PROFILE: Sri Lanka is actively advancing oil and gas exploration (primarily in Mannar Basin) while pursuing critical minerals development (notably graphite and mineral sands) and renewable energy goals, with 2025-2026 marking renewed licensing and investment efforts. MANNAR BASIN OIL/GAS LICENSING: Licensing round (Sri Lanka plans to invite international bids in August 2026 for upstream petroleum development, exploration and extraction of gas and oil, in four blocks of Mannar Basin). Past discoveries and reserves (Cairn Lanka, Indian subsidiary, drilled wells in 2011 confirming natural gas in Barracuda and Dorado fields in Mannar Basin; overall offshore basins—Mannar, Cauvery, Lanka—hold petroleum potential estimated at ~$250-267 billion). Licensing process updates (2025) (in mid-2025, Cabinet approved selection of marketing consultant for new Mannar Basin licensing round; PDASL closed its RFP in September 2025, with plans to launch EOIs once consultant selected). Natural gas confirmation (natural gas confirmed in Mannar Basin, with estimates around 350 billion cubic feet cited in some reports; CPC preparing to call for investors). REFINERY MODERNIZATION: Sapugaskanda refinery (Sri Lanka's refinery, operated by CPC, undergoing expansion plans via BOT to increase capacity from ~50,000 to 100,000 barrels per day; EOIs invited in 2025 with shortlisted companies). RENEWABLES TARGETS: Energy goals (government aims for 70% of energy requirements from renewable sources by 2030, alongside broader energy transition efforts). CRITICAL MINERALS POLICY: National minerals policy (Sri Lanka approved its first national minerals policy since 1999 in February 2026, supporting mining development). Graphite investment call (2026) (official calls for investment in integrated mine development and value-added graphite projects, e.g., at Kahatagaha, targeting graphene, advanced carbon materials, and lithium-ion battery components under 30-year frameworks). Mineral sands project (Capital Metals Taprobane) (high-grade project advancing with two mining licenses secured; construction targeted for Q4 2026, pending final approvals, low capex, strong projected IRR). Critical minerals focus (Sri Lanka's resources include graphite, phosphorus, titanium, and zirconium relevant to clean energy/battery tech; limited public emphasis on lithium deposits specifically). OFFSHORE ENERGY INVESTOR INTEREST: Basin modelling (recent basin modelling and studies attracting renewed investor conversations for Sri Lanka's offshore potential as of early 2026). ENERGY MIX CONTEXT: Primary energy supply (relies heavily on coal and imports, with ~23% from modern renewables; efforts ongoing to diversify including via domestic fossil resources). EXPLORATION HISTORY: Timeline (exploration dates to 1960s; past progress stalled due to costs and instability, but renewed push in 2025-2026). MARKET REPORTS: 2026 analyses (dedicated 2026 Sri Lanka oil & gas market analyses cover field output, LNG/refinery profiles, and competitive landscape). BROADER CRITICAL MINERALS OUTLOOK: Global context (global reports, e.g., IEA 2026, note volatility in lithium and other battery metals, but Sri Lanka-specific activity centers more on graphite and mineral sands than lithium mining). THE READ: Sri Lanka actively advancing oil and gas exploration, Mannar Basin, critical minerals development, graphite and mineral sands, renewable energy goals, 2025-2026 renewed licensing and investment efforts; Mannar Basin licensing round, international bids August 2026, upstream petroleum development, exploration and extraction gas and oil, four blocks Mannar Basin; Cairn Lanka, Indian subsidiary, drilled wells 2011, natural gas confirmed, Barracuda and Dorado fields, Mannar Basin; offshore basins Mannar, Cauvery, Lanka, petroleum potential ~$250-267 billion; mid-2025 Cabinet approved marketing consultant selection, new Mannar Basin licensing round; PDASL closed RFP September 2025, plans launch EOIs consultant selected; natural gas confirmed Mannar Basin, estimates 350 billion cubic feet, CPC preparing call investors; Sapugaskanda refinery, operated CPC, expansion plans BOT, capacity 50,000 to 100,000 barrels per day, EOIs invited 2025, shortlisted companies; government aims 70% energy requirements renewable sources 2030, broader energy transition efforts; first national minerals policy since 1999 February 2026, supporting mining development; official calls investment integrated mine development, value-added graphite projects, Kahatagaha, graphene, advanced carbon materials, lithium-ion battery components, 30-year frameworks; Capital Metals Taprobane, high-grade project, two mining licenses secured, construction Q4 2026, pending final approvals, low capex, strong projected IRR; graphite, phosphorus, titanium, zirconium, clean energy and battery tech, limited public emphasis lithium deposits specifically; recent basin modelling and studies, renewed inves...

Thursday, August 20, 2026. ARIZONA ENERGY PROFILE: Arizona has negligible oil and natural gas production, with no significant proved reserves and output that is minimal or often zero in recent monthly data. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Production levels (EIA monthly data shows Arizona field production typically at 0-1 thousand barrels per month in 2024-2026; e.g., 2024 and 2025 mostly 0-1; early 2026: Jan/Feb/May 0, Mar/Apr 1; annual totals in low thousands of barrels or less). Historical context (main producing area is Dineh-bi-Keyah field, Apache County, on Navajo Nation land, produced ~19 million barrels total since 1967, peak output far higher than current levels, now around 12,000 barrels/year or less; other wells contribute minimally). NATURAL GAS: Production (data largely NA/withheld or indicates no meaningful production; Arizona is not a notable gas-producing state). RESERVES & GEOLOGY: Reserves (EIA and other sources state Arizona has no significant proved crude oil or natural gas reserves; geology in most of state not conducive to commercial hydrocarbons). LEASE ACTIVITY (2026): BLM proposed sale (BLM proposed December 2026 oil and gas lease sale covering ~40 parcels and 78,708 acres in northwest Arizona, near Grand Canyon-Parashant National Monument/Littlefield area; first such sale since 2018; scoping occurred in 2026, does not reflect current production). OVERALL RANKING & SCALE: National ranking (Arizona ranked ~30th nationally for crude oil in older data, e.g., 2014, but produces tiny fraction of U.S. totals; production almost entirely from tribal lands). Supporting context (EIA state profiles and historical series confirm minimal output; articles note reliance on imports, pipelines from CA/TX/NM for petroleum products, no refineries in-state). ENERGY PROFILE: Energy mix (emphasizes consumption: natural gas ~43-46% of electricity generation, plus nuclear and growing solar, rather than local fossil fuel extraction). No major production increases (no major production increases or new fields indicated for 2026 beyond potential lease sale). THE READ: Arizona negligible oil and natural gas production, no significant proved reserves, output minimal or often zero recent monthly data; EIA monthly data 0-1 thousand barrels per month 2024-2026, 2024 and 2025 mostly 0-1, early 2026 January/February/May 0, March/April 1, annual totals low thousands barrels or less; Dineh-bi-Keyah field, Apache County, Navajo Nation land, ~19 million barrels total since 1967, peak output far higher, now 12,000 barrels/year or less, other wells minimally; natural gas data NA/withheld or no meaningful production, not notable gas-producing state; no significant proved crude oil or natural gas reserves, geology most state not conducive commercial hydrocarbons; BLM proposed December 2026 oil and gas lease sale, ~40 parcels, 78,708 acres, northwest Arizona, Grand Canyon-Parashant National Monument, Littlefield area, first sale since 2018, scoping 2026, does not reflect current production; ranked ~30th nationally crude oil older data 2014, tiny fraction U.S. totals, production almost entirely tribal lands; EIA state profiles historical series confirm minimal output, articles reliance on imports, pipelines California/Texas/New Mexico petroleum products, no refineries in-state; emphasizes consumption, natural gas ~43-46% electricity generation, plus nuclear and growing solar, rather than local fossil fuel extraction; no major production increases or new fields indicated 2026 beyond potential lease sale. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Wednesday, August 19, 2026. URUGUAY ENERGY PROFILE: Uruguay has negligible domestic oil and natural gas production as of 2025-2026 and relies almost entirely on imports for fossil fuels. Exploratory drilling for offshore oil and gas is scheduled to begin in 2026, but commercial production is not expected in the near term (likely years away even with discoveries). CURRENT PRODUCTION: Oil production about 1,411.6 barrels per day of oil and petroleum liquids in 2025 (down 1.8% YoY), ranking #104 globally; essentially no crude oil production (0 bpd reported). No proven oil reserves (Worldometers and other trackers report no proven oil reserves for Uruguay). No natural gas production (Uruguay produces no natural gas domestically and has no proven reserves; imports via pipelines from Argentina). Oil consumption context (consumption declined to around 45,000-49,800 bpd recently, down from over 65,000 bpd in 2012, supported by strong renewables). OFFSHORE EXPLORATION RAMP-UP: Offshore blocks (ANCAP licensed seven offshore blocks; seismic acquisition started in 2025, exploratory drilling planned for 2026, first deepwater well in ~a decade by APA in H2 2026). Major companies involved (partners include Shell, QatarEnergy, Chevron, and APA; YPF Argentina expressed interest in nearby blocks). Geological potential (similarities to Namibia's discoveries; ANCAP estimates 3-23% probability of oil/gas in offshore areas, speculative potential up to 30 billion barrels). Exploration timeline (contracts cover all ~120,000 sq km of offshore acreage; drilling phase expected to last at least 4 years, possibly extendable). Investment and activity (over $200 million in commitments; first significant offshore test well in a decade set for 2026). ENERGY INDEPENDENCE HOPES: Strategic goal (successful discoveries could eventually meet domestic oil needs and enable exports, complementing Uruguay's renewable leadership: wind, solar, hydro). Natural gas exploration included (offshore blocks target both oil and gas; no near-term domestic production expected). REFINING & BROADER CONTEXT: Refining (La Teja refinery, only one in country, processes imported crude for domestic needs). Broader energy context (oil and gas sector underdeveloped; focus remains on renewables while testing offshore hydrocarbons). No 2026 production forecast (exploration phase means any commercial output would be post-2026 at earliest; current "production" figures reflect minor/non-crude liquids or statistical artifacts). Recent policy/activity (government authorized seismic projects in 2025; ongoing interest despite renewable focus). THE READ: Uruguay negligible domestic oil and natural gas production 2025-2026, relies almost entirely on imports, exploratory drilling scheduled 2026, commercial production not expected near term, years away even with discoveries; oil production 1,411.6 bpd 2025, down 1.8% YoY, ranking #104 globally, essentially no crude oil production, zero bpd; no proven oil reserves; no natural gas production domestically, no proven reserves, imports via pipelines from Argentina; oil consumption 45,000-49,800 bpd recently, down from 65,000+ 2012, strong renewables; ANCAP licensed seven offshore blocks, seismic acquisition started 2025, exploratory drilling planned 2026, first deepwater well ~a decade by APA H2 2026; partners Shell, QatarEnergy, Chevron, APA, YPF Argentina interested nearby blocks; similarities Namibia discoveries, ANCAP 3-23% probability oil/gas offshore, speculative potential 30 billion barrels; contracts ~120,000 sq km offshore acreage, drilling phase 4+ years; over $200 million commitments, first significant offshore test well a decade 2026; successful discoveries could meet domestic oil needs and enable exports, complementing renewable leadership, wind, solar, hydro; offshore blocks target oil and gas, no near-term domestic production; La Teja refinery, only one, imported crude domestic needs; oil and gas sector underdeveloped, focus renewables, testing offshore hydrocarbons; exploration phase post-2026 earliest, current production minor/non-crude liquids or statistical artifacts; government authorized seismic projects 2025, ongoing interest despite renewable focus. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, August 18, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Investing.com (Aug 18 update) Overall Strong Buy signal; moving averages showed 11 Buy vs. 1 Sell; technical indicators unanimously Strong Buy (8/0). Barchart (Aug 17 technical analysis for Sep '26) Price closed higher (~84.61, +2.21 or +2.68% intraday in one snapshot); 5-day average ~82.90; 20-day ~82.53, with positive momentum noted. Economies.com (Aug 17 analyses) Crude oil fluctuated but held early gains with positive support from trading above key levels; preparation to resume upward moves on strong technical support after minor intraday dips. OneUpTrader (Aug 17 analysis) WTI erased early-August declines and returned to recurring 82-83 pivot zone; key resistance at 83.04 (session high/pivot); support at 81.50 (session low) and faster MA near 78.75; bullish continuation possible above 83.04 toward 87-88. FXStreet (recent hourly/daily bias) Mildly bearish near-term bias below 100-hour SMA (~81.18) but holding above 200-hour SMA and $80 support; RSI neutral/slightly downside; resistances at ~81.94, 83.57, 84.50. LiteFinance (Aug 17-18 update) USCrude around $84.14 as of Aug 18; expected consolidation on Aug 18; weekly range outlook ~67.93-97.41. Barchart (Aug '26 contract snapshot) Buy signal with strong strength; key turning points included resistance near 86.39-89.94 and support at 82.84-80.77. CME Group / market data (Aug 17-18) WTI last ~84.85 (+0.35); September contract active with positive daily closes reported around 84-85. Oilprice.com / Yahoo Finance snapshots Sep 2026 futures ~84.50-85.14 range on Aug 17-18, with day ranges like 84.62-85.37 and modest positive closes. FX Empire / YouTube forecasts (mid-Aug context) Bullish signals from falling wedge breakouts earlier in month, targeting higher levels (e.g., $94 area) if supports like ~82.50 held; recent videos noted extensions of gains. Additional context Earlier August saw sharp moves (e.g., breakdown tests near $74-77), with recovery into 80s by mid-month. Overall tone Constructive/bullish on Aug 17-18, driven by price action reclaiming moving averages and pivots near 82-83; some noted near-term consolidation risks or overhead resistance; geopolitical factors (Hormuz/Middle East) referenced as potential drivers but secondary to chart levels; prices showed +2%+ daily gains on Aug 17 in multiple reports. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Front-month contracts (NGQ26/Aug '26 or NGU26/Sep '26) Trading near $2.67-$2.73/MMBtu, with recent spot prices around $2.79. Shriram Insight pivots for Henry Hub Sep-26 contract (as of Aug 17, 2026; close 2.733) S3 2.628, S2 2.669, S1 2.701, Pivot 2.742, R1 2.774, R2 2.815, R3 2.847. Barchart key turning points for NGQ26 (Aug '26; last ~2.725) 3rd resistance 2.942, 2nd resistance 2.856, 1st resistance 2.791; 1st support 2.640, 2nd support 2.554, 3rd support 2.489. Multiyear lows Tested near $2.50-$2.56 (e.g., Bollinger Band support mentioned in July 2026 commentary). Broader range references Support near $2.65 and resistance in $3.30 area (medium-term views). Recent daily closes/levels Hovered around $2.67-$2.79, with volatility tied to storage, supply, and weather. EIA PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT (Week Ending Aug 7, Released Aug 12): U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) Rose sharply by 17.4 million barrels in week ending Aug 7, 2026, reaching 424.4 million barrels. Prior week Smaller increase of 2.479 million barrels (week ending July 31), bringing stocks to approximately 407 million barrels. Five-year average comparison Crude oil inventories stood about 6% below five-year average for time of year. Refinery crude runs Averaged 17.2 million barrels per day in week ending Aug 7 (down 183,000 bpd from prior week), with operable capacity utilization at 96.5%. Total commercial petroleum inventories Increased by 11.6 million barrels in earlier comparable week. Gasoline inventories Rose modestly in recent weeks (e.g., +0.8 million barrels in one period) but remained ~7% below five-year average. Distillate inventories Mixed changes, with builds or draws of 1-3+ million barrels in recent weeks and levels ~10% below average. Cushing hub Crude stocks rose notably in prior weeks (e.g., +2.356 million barrels). Net U.S. crude imports Increased in recent reporting periods (e.g., +297,000 bpd in one week). SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) Total holdings in ~300+ million barrel range across sites as of early Aug 2026, distinct from commercial inventories. Next report For week ending Aug 14, scheduled for release Aug 19, 2026. THE READ: Crude technicals Investing.com Strong Buy, 11 Buy vs. 1 Sell, 8 to 0 Strong Buy; Barchart 84.61 +2.21 or +2.68%, 5-day 82.90, 20-day 82.53, positive momentum; Economies.com held early gains, positive support, upward moves, strong technical support; OneUpTrader 82-83 pivot, 83.04 resistance, 81.50 support, 78.75 MA, bullish above 83.04 toward 87-88; FXStreet mildly bearish below 100-hour SMA 81.18, above 200-hour SMA and $80, RSI neutral, re...

Monday, August 17, 2026. WEEK 33 OPENS. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI at $82.09, down 0.38% from prior day per CFD/benchmark report; another note indicated rise toward $82.44 amid market movements. Aug 16 around $82.08 (delayed quote/settlement reference); one historical table listed 81.52 with -1.07% change; intraday trading referenced opens near $82.53 and ranges in low $82s. Aug 14 settlement $82.40 (up 1.42%). Aug 13 $81.25 settlement (down 2.43%). Front-month WTI futures CLU26 Sep 2026 traded on NYMEX. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Aug 11 spot (latest reported) $2.79 (up from $2.72 on Aug 10). Earlier Aug: Aug 7 ~$2.56; Aug 6/5 ~$2.60; Aug 4 ~$2.74. CME Henry Hub futures (mid-Aug 2026) trading around $2.66-$2.72 on Aug 16, 2026, with daily changes roughly -0.4% to -2.7%. Broader natural gas (CFD tracking Henry Hub) around $2.66-$2.73 on Aug 16-17, 2026, reflecting downward pressure. EIA Q3 2026 expectations around $2.87 in some outlooks. 2026 averages low-to-mid $3 range. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Aug 14 (Friday) only 2 vessels transited (one grain carrier entering Iranian waters, one empty dry bulk carrier exiting); separately empty LPG tanker noted heading through; no crude oil cargoes observed (Kpler analysis); nine vessels passed prior Thursday; five on Wednesday. Aug 13 13 confirmed Strait of Hormuz crossings (MarineTraffic data: 7 entering Gulf, 6 exiting; mix of vessel types including some sanctioned/shadow vessels). Aug 13/14 context Hormuz shipping traffic shows no sign of recovery (per gCaptain reports citing trade data); PortWatch recorded just 1 transit on Aug 9 against pre-crisis baseline of ~73 per day. Aug 10 (Monday) traffic fell to 6 vessels (vs. 10-day average of ~11); included 4 commodity vessels entering (two empty oil product tankers) and 2 exiting (one small LPG tanker, one with residual fuels) (Kpler/Reuters). Around Aug 11-12 5-day average of ~13 transits (all ship types), near three-month low and ~90% below pre-war levels (Kpler data via CNBC analysis). Aug 5 8 vessels transited (including 5 tankers and 3 bulk carriers; Kpler data). Aug 15 (or recent daily snapshot) 16 vessels recorded transiting (mix including dry bulk carriers, chemical tanker, oil tanker). Mid-Aug daily example (Windward data, ~Aug 15 context) 13 total crossings (4 inbound, 9 outbound), with several running AIS-dark for extended periods; composition included tankers, bulk carriers, cargo vessels. Broader Aug trend traffic remains well below pre-crisis norms; reports of attacks on vessels (including ADNOC-linked tankers) contributing to caution; some sources note Iranian-linked or shadow fleet activity and limited commercial flows. Overall context cumulative effects from crisis (including prior attacks, threats, stalled diplomacy) kept flows suppressed since spring/summer; occasional slight rebounds but no sustained recovery to normal levels as of mid-Aug. Pre-crisis baselines consistently cited as much higher (often 100+ daily). THE READ: Crude WTI $82.09 down 0.38%; Aug 16 $82.08; Aug 14 settlement $82.40 up 1.42%; Aug 13 $81.25 down 2.43%; front-month CLU26 Sep 2026 NYMEX. Gas Aug 11 spot $2.79 up from $2.72 Aug 10; earlier Aug 7 $2.56, Aug 6/5 $2.60, Aug 4 $2.74; CME Henry Hub futures mid-Aug $2.66-$2.72 Aug 16, daily changes -0.4% to -2.7%; broader natural gas CFD $2.66-$2.73 Aug 16-17, downward pressure; EIA Q3 2026 $2.87; 2026 averages low-to-mid $3. Hormuz Aug 14 only 2 vessels, grain carrier Iranian waters, empty dry bulk exiting, empty LPG heading through, no crude oil, Kpler, nine prior Thursday, five Wednesday; Aug 13 13 crossings, MarineTraffic 7 entering 6 exiting, sanctioned/shadow vessels, no recovery, gCaptain, PortWatch 1 transit Aug 9 vs. 73 pre-crisis; Aug 10 6 vessels vs. 10-day average 11, 4 commodity entering, 2 empty oil product tankers, 2 exiting, 1 small LPG, 1 residual fuels, Kpler Reuters; Aug 11-12 5-day average 13 transits, three-month low, 90% below pre-war, Kpler CNBC; Aug 5 8 vessels, 5 tankers 3 bulk; Aug 15 16 vessels, dry bulk, chemical tanker, oil tanker; mid-Aug Windward 13 crossings, 4 inbound 9 outbound, AIS-dark, tankers bulk cargo; Aug trend well below pre-crisis, attacks ADNOC tankers, Iranian-linked shadow fleet, limited flows; crisis cumulative effects, attacks threats stalled diplomacy, suppressed since spring/summer, occasional rebounds, no sustained recovery mid-Aug; pre-crisis 100+ daily. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Friday, August 15, 2026. ZIMBABWE ENERGY PROFILE: Zimbabwe's 2026 developments in energy, oil/gas, mining, and lithium focus on a lithium export and processing boom alongside early-stage oil/gas exploration, supported by policy shifts toward local beneficiation and foreign (especially Chinese) investment. LITHIUM BOOM: Export earnings $782 million in first six months of 2026 (more than triple the $237 million from prior comparable period). Global position: Accounted for nearly 10% of global lithium production in 2025; leads African output. Major operations: Bikita Minerals (Sinomine), Arcadia (Huayou Cobalt/Prospect Lithium), Kamativi (Yahua), Sabi Star, Sandawana; Chinese firms invested over $1 billion since 2021. Processing plants: Huayou's lithium sulphate production at Arcadia (early 2026 start); $500 million Goromonzi facility (Africa's first, world's third such plant, targeting 60,000 tonnes capacity). Export controls: Feb 2026 government ban on exports of raw mineral ore and lithium concentrates to enforce local processing and value addition. INVESTMENT & POLICY: Record approvals: $1.59 billion in new projects approved in Q2 2026; mining/manufacturing ~80% (~$768.5 million for mining focused on gold, platinum, lithium). Critical minerals: Nickel, copper, lithium declared critical minerals alongside oil/gas, coal, gold. Mining sector weight: 14% of GDP, 75% of export earnings, 20% of government revenues in 2024. Beneficiation focus: Multiple processing/refining initiatives and state equity stakes to capture more value domestically. OIL & GAS EXPLORATION: Cabora Bassa Basin project (Invictus Energy): Largest oil/gas exploration effort; targeting ~1.2 trillion cubic feet of gas and 73 million barrels of condensate; Musuma-1 well spud planned for November 2026. Landmark deal: Gas production deal signed in 2026 for Cabora Bassa project, advancing commercialization with international partnerships. Broader push: Zimbabwe seeking partnerships for oil/gas development amid regional Southern/East African momentum; confirmed viable gas/oil via advanced tech. AFRICA-WIDE CONTEXT: Regional output: Zimbabwe drives much of continent's lithium output (part of 124k+ tons LCE regionally); costs competitive with growing state participation mandates. Export controls impact: Zimbabwe's restrictions (alongside others) noted in 2026 critical minerals outlooks as tightening supply chains for battery metals. THE READ: Zimbabwe lithium export earnings $782M first six months 2026, triple prior period; nearly 10% global lithium production 2025; leads African output; major operations Bikita Minerals, Arcadia, Kamativi, Sabi Star, Sandawana; Chinese firms over $1B since 2021; Huayou lithium sulphate Arcadia early 2026; $500M Goromonzi facility, Africa's first, world's third, 60k tonnes capacity; Feb 2026 ban raw mineral ore/lithium concentrates, local processing/value addition; record approvals $1.59B Q2 2026, mining/manufacturing 80%, $768.5M mining, gold/platinum/lithium; nickel/copper/lithium critical minerals; mining 14% GDP, 75% export earnings, 20% government revenues 2024; processing/refining initiatives, state equity stakes; Cabora Bassa Basin Invictus Energy, largest oil/gas exploration, 1.2T cubic feet gas, 73M barrels condensate, Musuma-1 well spud Nov 2026; gas production deal 2026, commercialization, international partnerships; regional Southern/East African momentum, confirmed viable gas/oil; Zimbabwe drives continent's lithium output, 124k+ tons LCE regionally, competitive costs, state participation mandates; export controls tightening supply chains battery metals. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Thursday, August 14, 2026. WASHINGTON STATE ENERGY PROFILE: Washington state has no meaningful in-state crude oil or natural gas production. No crude oil production: Zero commercial production since early 1960s; exploration dating back to 1900 yielded only negligible amounts. No natural gas production: State produces none; nearly all natural gas consumed is imported, primarily from Canada. Refining capacity: Fifth-largest crude oil refining capacity in U.S. (five refineries processing ~650,000 barrels per day), but all crude is imported (historically from Alaska, now increasingly via pipeline from Canada or rail from other U.S. regions). Natural gas consumption: Mainly for power generation, heating, and industry; Canada is dominant supplier; electric power sector use has grown since ~2013. Policy context: Natural gas faces regulation under Climate Commitment Act (emissions cap-and-trade) and related decarbonization efforts, though it remains in use for reliability amid growing electricity demand. Broader energy profile: Net energy importer overall; hydropower dominates electricity generation; natural gas is secondary source (~16% of in-state generation in recent data); oil and gas production plays no role. No 2026 shifts: Official sources consistently describe zero or negligible activity; no projections indicate shift toward in-state fossil fuel production. THE READ: Washington state zero crude oil production since early 1960s; zero natural gas production; imports nearly all natural gas from Canada; fifth-largest U.S. refining capacity 650,000 barrels per day; all crude imported from Alaska, Canada, or other U.S. regions; natural gas for power generation, heating, industry; Canada dominant supplier; electric power sector use growing since 2013; Climate Commitment Act regulation; emissions cap-and-trade; decarbonization efforts; reliability concerns amid growing electricity demand; net energy importer; hydropower dominates generation; natural gas 16% of in-state generation; oil and gas production zero; no 2026 shifts; official sources zero or negligible activity; no projections indicate shift toward in-state fossil fuel production. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Wednesday, August 13, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI Sep 2026 futures trading $82.10-$83.38; recent trade $83.10 +0.97 on Aug 11 data; settlement/open levels $82.25-$82.88; up ~1%+ intraday in some sessions. WTI Aug 2026 futures ~$84.91. Oct 2026 ~$81.06-$81.52. Nov 2026 ~$79.76. Recent spot/WTI prices (early Aug 2026) around $78-$82 range; examples include ~$81.96 on Aug 3; ~$78.16-$78.78 in early/mid-August; decline to ~$77.11 on Aug 4. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (Aug 2026): Brent spot forecast averaging ~$85/bbl in Q3 2026 (WTI typically trades at discount to Brent); 2027 average ~$69. Bloomberg energy snapshot (Aug 11): WTI ~$83.05-$83.45 (Aug/Sep 2026 contracts); Brent ~$88.71 (Sep 2026). Recent opens/closes: WTI futures opened ~$78.31 on Aug 7; ~$77.74 on Aug 10; recent closes/settlements in low-to-mid $82 area on Aug 10-11. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Aug 3 spot (latest reported) $2.81/MMBtu. Sep 2026 futures (NGU26) $2.77-$2.79/MMBtu (recent trades around $2.754-$2.789). Oct 2026 (NGV26) ~$2.835/MMBtu. Recent spot prices (early Aug 2026) low-to-mid $2.60s-$2.80s range. EIA forecast Q3 2026 average around $2.87/MMBtu; prices expected to stay below $3.00/MMBtu through much of period due to high storage and production. 2026 annual average forecasts $2.89-$3.50 range depending on source/timing. OPEC+ PRODUCTION: August 2026 quota increase +188,000 bpd (effective from start of month). Core countries: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman. Cumulative increase (Apr-Aug 2026) 958,000 bpd total. Trend: Fifth consecutive monthly hike; further similar increases expected (e.g., another ~188,000 bpd potentially for September). Context: Phased unwinding of earlier voluntary production cuts (originally from 2023). Note on actual vs. target: Announced quotas reflect targets amid ongoing market reviews (e.g., post-Iran conflict dynamics affecting shipping in Strait of Hormuz). Physical output may lag due to logistical/geopolitical factors; some reports noting subdued tanker activity despite quota hikes. OPEC+ crude output reached approximately 43.05 million bpd in September 2025; 2026 demand for OPEC+ crude projected around 43.1 million bpd. 2026 global oil demand growth: OPEC raising forecast to ~1.4 million bpd growth. OPEC MONTHLY OIL MARKET REPORT: Release date August 12, 2026. Includes detailed supply/demand data and actual production estimates. Latest available July 2026 edition. THE READ: Crude WTI Sep 2026 $82.10-$83.38; recent trade $83.10 +0.97; settlement/open $82.25-$82.88; up ~1%+; WTI Aug 2026 $84.91; Oct 2026 $81.06-$81.52; Nov 2026 $79.76; recent spot/WTI early Aug $78-$82 range; $81.96 Aug 3; $78.16-$78.78 early/mid-Aug; decline to $77.11 Aug 4; EIA STEO Aug 2026 Brent $85/bbl Q3; WTI discount to Brent; 2027 average $69; Bloomberg Aug 11 WTI $83.05-$83.45 Aug/Sep 2026; Brent $88.71 Sep 2026; recent opens/closes WTI Aug 7 $78.31; Aug 10 $77.74; recent closes/settlements low-to-mid $82 Aug 10-11. Gas: Aug 3 spot $2.81; Sep 2026 NGU26 $2.77-$2.79; recent trades $2.754-$2.789; Oct 2026 NGV26 $2.835; recent spot early Aug low-to-mid $2.60s-$2.80s; EIA Q3 2026 average $2.87; prices below $3.00 through much of period; high storage/production; 2026 annual average $2.89-$3.50. OPEC+: Aug 2026 quota +188,000 bpd; core countries Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman; cumulative Apr-Aug 2026 958,000 bpd; fifth consecutive monthly hike; further similar increases expected; another 188,000 potentially September; phased unwinding earlier voluntary production cuts from 2023; announced quotas reflect targets amid ongoing market reviews; post-Iran conflict dynamics affecting Strait of Hormuz shipping; physical output may lag; subdued tanker activity despite quota hikes; OPEC+ output Sept 2025 43.05 million bpd; 2026 demand OPEC+ crude 43.1 million bpd; 2026 global oil demand growth OPEC raising forecast 1.4 million bpd. OPEC MOMR: Aug 12 2026 release; detailed supply/demand data and actual production estimates; latest available July 2026 edition. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, August 12, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading around $82.38, up 0.30%. Daily range $81.99-$82.50. Technical summary: Overall Strong Buy. Moving averages Strong Buy (12 buy, 0 sell). Technical indicators Strong Buy (7 buy, 0 sell). All major moving average periods (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, MA100, MA200) showing buy signals. Indicators: RSI(14) at 77.6 (overbought); Stochastic overbought; MACD buy; ADX buy; CCI buy; several others neutral to buy. Pivot points: $82.21 pivot; support $81.83-$82.02; resistance $82.40-$82.59. Recent action: Sharp 4% drop on Aug 4 to $77.11 on US-Iran diplomatic news; recovered toward $80-$82 zone. Key support: Psychological $75 major zone; 200-day MA near $78 as dynamic support. Key resistance: $80 (prior support turned resistance); 50-day MA around $82. Barchart Sep '26: Price near $78.70; shorter-term MAs mixed; Stochastic/RSI neutral-to-bearish on very short timeframes. Longer-term forecasts: August 2026 ranges $61-$93 (high volatility); mid-$80s recovery later in year. EIA outlook: Brent projected $74/bbl in Q3 2026. J.P. Morgan: Brent Q3 2026 average $86, gradual decline into year-end. Prediction markets: Probabilities around touching $75-$80 levels during August 2026. Overall bias: Bullish on MAs and aggregate indicators, but overbought readings (RSI) and geopolitical volatility warrant caution. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Aug 11 spot $2.77/MMBtu (down 1% from prior day). Aug 3 spot $2.81/MMBtu. Jul 2026 monthly average $2.89/MMBtu. Recent daily closes: Aug 7 ~$2.67; Aug 6 ~$2.63; Aug 5 ~$2.67; Aug 4 ~$2.69; Aug 3 ~$2.77. Futures (NGU26) trading around $2.73-$2.78. EIA forecast: 2026 annual average Henry Hub spot prices near $3.50-$3.67/MMBtu. Market note: Ample storage and supply despite summer demand. EIA WEEKLY PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT: Release date August 12, 2026 (after 10:30 a.m. ET). Covers week ending August 7, 2026. Prior release (Aug 5): Week ending July 31 — U.S. crude oil inventories rose +2.479 million barrels (vs. expectations of -1.5M draw); stocks reached ~407M barrels. Cushing OK stocks +2.356M barrels. Key watch: Changes in crude stocks, refinery utilization, gasoline/distillate inventories, imports. Note: Starting with Aug 12 report, EIA discontinuing standalone PDF figures in favor of new data visualizations. THE READ: Crude WTI $82.38, up 0.30%; Overall Strong Buy; all major MAs bullish; RSI 77.6 overbought; Stochastic overbought; MACD buy; ADX buy; CCI buy; pivot $82.21; support $81.83-$82.02; resistance $82.40-$82.59; recent 4% drop Aug 4 to $77.11 on US-Iran news; recovered toward $80-$82 zone; key support $75 major zone; 200-day MA $78; key resistance $80; 50-day MA $82; Barchart Sep '26 $78.70; shorter-term MAs mixed; Stochastic/RSI neutral-to-bearish on very short timeframes; August 2026 ranges $61-$93; mid-$80s recovery later in year; EIA Brent $74 Q3; J.P. Morgan Brent $86 Q3, gradual decline year-end; prediction markets $75-$80 levels; overall bullish on MAs and aggregate indicators; overbought RSI and geopolitical volatility warrant caution. Gas: Aug 11 spot $2.77 (down 1%); Aug 3 spot $2.81; Jul average $2.89; recent closes Aug 7 $2.67, Aug 6 $2.63, Aug 5 $2.67, Aug 4 $2.69, Aug 3 $2.77; NGU26 $2.73-$2.78; EIA forecast $3.50-$3.67 full-year; ample storage and supply. EIA report: Aug 12 after 10:30 a.m. ET; week ending Aug 7; prior week ending July 31 crude inventories +2.479M barrels vs. -1.5M expected; stocks 407M barrels; Cushing OK +2.356M barrels; watch crude stocks, refinery utilization, gasoline/distillate inventories, imports; EIA discontinuing PDFs for new visualizations. Trade the charts. Respect the levels.

Monday, August 11, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI Sep 2026 futures trading $77 to $78.18, up 0.89 or 1.15%. Day range $76.53-$78.77. Volume 206K. Oct 2026 around $76.10-$77.15. Brent reference $87.38/bbl. Technical: Overall Strong Buy driven by moving averages (Strong Buy on 10/12 signals); oscillators mixed/neutral to buy. MA5 values around $78.46-$78.59 showing buy signals. Elliott Wave: WTI plunged for a second week amid hopes of a deal to reopen the Hormuz Strait. Daily analysis: Downtrend with suggested sell level at $80 targeting $73. J.P. Morgan forecast: Brent expected to average $86/bbl in Q3 2026, $80 in Q4, $78 by year-end. Futures curve: Mild contango (Sep > Oct > later months declining toward ~$60s by 2030s). YTD performance: Sep 2026 contract +27% YTD, +21.7% over 1 year; +3% over 5 days, +5.4% over 1 month. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Aug 3 spot $2.81/MMBtu (latest daily). Jul 31 spot $2.59/MMBtu. Jul 2026 monthly average $2.89/MMBtu. Near-term futures (NGU26) ~$2.67-$2.722 (as of Aug 8-9). Recent daily futures closes: Aug 7 ~$2.67; Aug 6 ~$2.63; Aug 5 ~$2.67; Aug 4 ~$2.69; Aug 3 ~$2.77. EIA forecast: Henry Hub spot expected to average close to $3.60-$3.67/MMBtu for full-year 2026. Market note: Ample supply and storage levels; futures testing multiyear lows as rollover looms. STRAIT OF HORMUZ CRISIS: Tanker traffic only 5 transits in 24 hours ending Aug 5 (3 inbound, 2 outbound) — roughly 75% below pre-crisis daily average of 20+. Suspected attacks Aug 2: Two tankers (VLCC Egypt Prosperity and Aframax On Pride) reported incidents involving explosions; both escaped unscathed. Explosion reports Aug 5: Tanker reported two nearby explosions southeast of Kumzar, Oman; vessel and crew safe. Iran-Oman talks: Negotiating agreement on reopening strait; Iran published restrictive draft plan with conditions, bans on certain nations' ships, penalties. Broader traffic trends: 84 total transits Jul 27-Aug 2 (up from prior weeks but still far below normal); non-Iranian/Chinese-linked traffic limited. Insurance concerns: High war-risk insurance keeping most commercial tankers away; traffic dominated by Iranian- and Chinese-linked vessels. Expert view: Traffic could rise quickly with credible security deal but unlikely to return to pre-war highs (130-140 vessels daily) immediately. THE READ: Crude WTI Sep 2026 $77-$78.18, up 1.15%; Strong Buy technical; Elliott Wave plunge on Hormuz deal hopes; sell level $80 targeting $73; J.P. Morgan Brent $86 Q3, $80 Q4, $78 year-end; mild contango curve; YTD +27%. Gas Aug 3 spot $2.81; Jul average $2.89; NGU26 $2.67-$2.722; EIA forecast $3.60-$3.67 full-year; ample supply; multiyear lows. Hormuz 5 tanker transits in 24 hours, 75% below normal; suspected attacks Aug 2 and 5; Iran-Oman talks ongoing; 84 total transits Jul 27-Aug 2; war-risk insurance high; Iranian and Chinese vessels dominating; deal could accelerate traffic but not to pre-war levels immediately. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Friday, August 8, 2026. HAWAII: ONE HUNDRED PERCENT RENEWABLE BY 2045. Hawaii has no domestic oil or natural gas. Imports everything. One refinery in Kapolei. 94,000 barrels per day capacity. Tankers bring the rest. But the state is executing the most aggressive renewable transition in America. THE MANDATE: 2015 legislation set binding 100% renewable electricity by 2045. Hawaii was first state in the nation to do it. Now accelerating. 2024 PERFORMANCE: Hawaiian Electric consolidated renewable portfolio standard reached 35.8%. Oahu 30.8%. Maui County 41.1%. Hawaii Island 58.7%. Ahead of targets. GOVERNOR'S ACTIONS: Executive Order accelerating renewables. 100% renewable electricity for most islands by 2035. Solar tax credits preserved for 2026 via Executive Order 26-02. SOLAR LEADERSHIP: Hawaii leads the nation in rooftop solar per capita. Grid modernization underway. JERA PARTNERSHIP: Japan's largest power producer. Strategic agreement to modernize Hawaii's grid, retire aging assets, improve reliability during renewable transition. BROADER TARGETS: 70% emissions reduction by 2030. Net-zero by 2045. Transportation decarbonization emphasized. VULNERABILITY: Hawaii exposed to global oil price swings. Recent geopolitical events raising fuel costs, inflation, tourism impacts. Single refinery creates supply risk. HEADWINDS: Some legislative efforts in 2026 to scale back 100% target to 70% by 2045 due to grid reliability concerns. THE PLAY: Hawaii's renewable transition is real. But oil import dependence remains. Watch grid reliability, JERA partnership execution, and legislative pushback. Energy independence equals economic resilience.

Thursday, August 7, 2026. VIETNAM: THE LNG PIVOT. Vietnam is transitioning from domestic oil and gas decline to LNG imports. The strategy is clear: build LNG infrastructure to fuel power generation and support double-digit economic growth. SON MY LNG TERMINAL: PV Gas and AES Corporation joint venture. Investment certificate granted. 450 TBtu capacity. $1.4 billion investment. Commercial operations targeted for 2026. Supplies southern Vietnam. Diversifies the energy mix. UPSTREAM PRODUCTION: White Tiger Block 16-1 and Rong Ca Ngu Vang Block 09-2 drilling underway. New wells targeted for 2026. Offsetting natural production declines. PTTEP partnership with Thailand. First gas from Block B gas-to-power chain targeted for 2027. GAS INFRASTRUCTURE: PV Gas coordinating fuel switching between domestic gas, LNG, and diesel oil. Pipelines and terminals expanding. LNG-to-power highlighted as transitional energy source. REGIONAL PARTNERSHIPS: Petronas from Malaysia. Japan on LNG power projects. US firms on gas-fired equipment. Indo-Pacific energy security forums prioritizing LNG and oil-gas cooperation. DEMAND PROJECTION: LNG demand reaching 5 million tonnes by 2025. Continued growth into 2026 and beyond. THE PLAY: Vietnam's LNG infrastructure buildout is real capital opportunity. Son My terminal coming online 2026. Upstream production stabilization. Regional energy hub positioning. Watch PV Gas, AES, and PTTEP developments. Vietnam becoming Southeast Asia's energy gateway.

Wednesday, August 6, 2026. GEORGIA: THE CAUCASUS ENERGY CORRIDOR. Georgia sits at the crossroads of Caspian energy flows. Two critical pipelines: Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline and South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) for gas. BTC: 1,768 km crude oil transit from Azerbaijan to Turkey. BP transferred operatorship to SOCAR effective July 1, 2026. Throughput declining: H1 2025 saw 13.9 million tons; early 2026 dropped 33% year-over-year. Caspian export dynamics tightening. SCP GAS PIPELINE: Shah Deniz consortium gas flows through Georgia to Turkey. Georgia receives transit fees plus 5% offtake and preferential purchases. Strategic leverage. GEORGIA'S IMPORTS: Total consumption 3.2 billion cubic meters. 2026 imports projected at 3.34 billion cubic meters. Azerbaijan dominates. Gazprom volumes surged 40.4% in 2025. Russia gaining ground. ELECTRICITY: 75-80% hydro. Gas-fired backup. EU Energy Community Treaty member since 2016. Pushing for underground storage and diversification. GEOPOLITICS: Georgia's transit role enhances leverage. But energy dependence on Russia and Azerbaijan shapes foreign policy. Black Sea access critical. US National Security Strategy shift in January 2026 reducing regional engagement. Georgia navigating between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Western alignment. THE PLAY: Georgia's transit corridor value is real. But import dependence on Russia creates vulnerability. Watch BTC throughput trends and Gazprom volumes. Energy security equals geopolitical positioning.

Tuesday, August 4, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI closed Aug 3 near $79.59 (sharp daily decline). Aug 2026 contract CLQ26 at $84.91-$84.99 (strong buy signal per Barchart). Technical summary: Overall Buy/Strong Buy (6 buy signals, 1 sell); Neutral on moving averages (6 buy, 6 sell). Shorter-term MA5/10/20 showing buy signals near $79.60-$80.30; longer-term MA50/100/200 sell signals near $81.50-$83.40. Indicators: RSI 14 neutral at 47.5; STOCH buy; MACD sell; overbought readings (STOCHRSI, Williams %R); CCI bullish. Pivot points: Support S1 $79.71, S2 $79.01, S3 $78.55; Pivot $80.17; Resistance R1 $80.87, R2 $81.33, R3 $82.03. Short-term bearish tilt: 4H chart gap down, declining MACD (bearish momentum), RSI 39, falling MFI, price below VWAP/SMA20. Trading plan: Shorts below $78.42 targeting $76 and $74; longs above $80.53. LiteFinance Aug 4 forecast: Continued decline; range low $73.91, average $79.50, high $85.09. Broader Aug 2026 range: $67.93-$106.74 (geopolitics, inventories, OPEC+, Fed policy, technical corrections). Support: Intraday support near $78.00; mixed bullish/bearish momentum. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Jul 27 spot $2.63/MMBtu (most recent daily). Jul 2026 monthly average $3.15/MMBtu. Recent daily spots: Jul 24 $2.87; Jul 23 $2.92; Jul 22 $2.93; Jul 21 $2.80. Sep 2026 futures (NGU26) $2.77 (up ~1% that session). Aug 2026 futures $2.72-$2.77 range. 2026 full-year EIA forecast $3.60-$3.67/MMBtu. Q3 2026 EIA forecast $3.37/MMBtu average. Market note: Ample supply; weather influences; renewables crimp upside. THE READ: Crude WTI $79.59 close; Aug 2026 CLQ26 $84.91-$84.99; Buy/Strong Buy overall; shorter-term MA buy signals; longer-term MA sell signals; RSI neutral; STOCH buy; MACD sell; pivot support S1 $79.71, S2 $79.01, S3 $78.55; pivot $80.17; resistance R1 $80.87, R2 $81.33, R3 $82.03; short-term bearish; shorts below $78.42 targeting $76 and $74; longs above $80.53; Aug 4 forecast range low $73.91, average $79.50, high $85.09; Aug 2026 range $67.93-$106.74; support $78.00. Gas: Jul 27 spot $2.63; Jul average $3.15; recent spots $2.80-$2.93; Sep 2026 $2.77; Aug 2026 $2.72-$2.77; 2026 forecast $3.60-$3.67; Q3 forecast $3.37; ample supply; weather influences; renewables crimp upside. Trade the charts. Respect the levels.

Monday, August 3, 2026. CRUDE OIL MARKET UPDATE: WTI trading near $80.00-$80.50 (down sharply ~$4.35 or -5.14% from prior close of $84.67). Trading levels ~$80.32 (down ~4.9-5.4%); other feeds show ~$80.09-$80.56. Prior session close (Aug 2) Sep 2026 contract settled near $80.63-$80.78 (down ~4.6-4.8%). CME futures snapshot (Aug 2 close) Sep 2026 (CLU6) at 80.78 (-3.89/-4.59%); Oct 2026 at 78.45 (-3.04/-3.73%). Daily range (recent sessions) lows near $78.78-$81.06; highs up to $86.87 (reflecting volatility). Recent trend context prices had been holding near/above $84-$85 recently (July strength), but faced steep decline into early Aug. Related markets Brent similarly lower (~$83.60 range). Sector backdrop US drillers reported turning more cautious while WTI held near $85; sustained demand and supply factors but highlights near-term volatility. NATURAL GAS MARKET UPDATE: Latest spot price (Jul 27, 2026) $2.63/MMBtu (down from $2.87 prior day). Nearby futures (Sep 2026, NGU26) trading around $2.76-$2.79/MMBtu (as of Aug 2). Aug 2 trading levels approximately $2.72-$2.75/MMBtu. Jun 2026 monthly average $3.15/MMBtu. Note EIA spot price data released with lag; next release scheduled Aug 5 for Aug 3 data. STRAIT OF HORMUZ TANKER TRAFFIC: Live tracker (Aug 3 update) 19 ships transited in last 24 hours (16.7% of normal ~60/day average). Ships currently underway 10 ships. Daily throughput ~1.5 million DWT (15% of 10.3 million DWT average). Vessels waiting 287 vessels (including 142 tankers). Strait status CLOSED (since Feb 28, 2026; 156+ days). Windward intelligence (around Aug 1) crossings rebounded to 19 vessels (10 outbound, 9 inbound); some dark transits (AIS off); no sanctioned crossings. Jul 31 snapshot (Windward) only 5 vessels transited in prior 24 hours (vs. pre-crisis baseline ~140). Mid-July patterns (Kpler/NYT, Jul 16) just 13 ships on one day during US naval blockade enforcement (down from 21 prior day); most using Iranian-mandated route. Early Jul lows traffic fell to multi-week/two-month lows (e.g., 6 tankers on one day per Kpler/Reuters) amid renewed US-Iran strikes and vessel attacks. Jun context (post-deal/ceasefire attempts) traffic remained low/trickling at 5-10 ships daily (far below pre-war 130-140 vessels); gradual increases but not to normal levels. Broader crisis commercial tanker passage near collapse/fraction of normal since Mar 2026; selective/controlled transits, dark shipping, seizures, attacks, rerouting. Normal pre-crisis levels ~60+ ships/day or higher for tankers; current volumes reflect extreme war-risk premiums, insurance issues, enforcement actions. CRUDE OIL INVENTORY REPORT (EIA): Latest release (Jul 29, 2026) U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell 7.167M barrels for week ending Jul 24, 2026 (actual vs. +0.7M forecast and prior +2.01M build). Level after Jul 24 draw inventories stood at ~404.5M barrels (7% below five-year average). Prior week (Jul 22 release) inventories rose 2.0M barrels for week ending Jul 17, 2026, to 411.7M barrels (6% below five-year average). Week ending Jul 10, 2026 draw of 1.7M barrels to 409.7M barrels (6% below five-year average). Ongoing trend multiple consecutive weekly draws in Jun-Jul 2026 amid strong refinery demand and Middle East supply disruptions (Iran-related tensions), pushing stocks toward multi-year lows. Refinery activity (week ending Jul 24) inputs averaged 17.3M bpd (97.2% utilization). Next release Aug 5, 2026, for data week ending Jul 31, 2026. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (Jul 2026) global oil inventories expected to draw 2.2M bpd average in Q3 2026 (less severe than prior forecasts). Cushing, OK hub stocks notably low in recent months (near operational minimums in some reports), contributing to market tightness. Product inventories (week ending Jul 17) gasoline +0.8M barrels, distillates +1.4M barrels, propane/propylene +6.3M barrels; total commercial petroleum stocks +11.6M barrels. THE READ: Crude WTI near $80.00-$80.50, down sharply -5.14%, from $84.67, Sep 2026 at 80.78, Oct 2026 at 78.45, volatility elevated, US drillers cautious, demand and supply factors sustained. Gas spot $2.63/MMBtu, down from $2.87, futures $2.76-$2.79, Aug 2 levels $2.72-$2.75, Jun average $3.15. Strait of Hormuz 19 ships transited last 24 hours (16.7% of normal), 287 vessels waiting, closed 156+ days, Windward Aug 1 rebound to 19, Jul 31 only 5, volatility, war-risk premiums elevated. Inventories Jul 24 draw 7.167M barrels, level 404.5M barrels (7% below five-year average), prior week build 2.0M, Jul 10 draw 1.7M, consecutive draws, strong refinery demand, Middle East disruptions, multi-year lows, refinery utilization 97.2%. WEEK 31 STRATEGIC POSITIONING THESIS: Crude WTI near $80, down -5.14%, steep decline from $84.67, Sep 2026 80.78, Oct 2026 78.45, volatility elevated, US drillers cautious, demand and supply sustained, Brent lower at $83.60. Gas spot $2.63, down from $2.87, futures $2.76-$2.79, stable near lower levels. Strait of Hormuz 19 ...

Friday, July 31, 2026. DENMARK ENERGY PROFILE. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Denmark crude oil production approximately 74,000 barrels per day (March 2026); December 2025 71,641 barrels per day; long-term declining trend. Annual crude oil 2024 4.1 million barrels, up 6% year-over-year. Solsort offshore field came online March 2024, contributing approximately 10% of output. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Natural gas output 2024 2.5 terawatt-hours, up 25% year-over-year, driven by Tyra II redevelopment and Solsort field contributions. Domestic natural gas production increased 64% year-over-year (+1 billion cubic meters) due to Tyra field redevelopment. EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: 2026 forecast approximately 38 billion cubic meters for select EU countries, including Denmark contributions. WIND ENERGY: Denmark global leader in wind energy. Ongoing policy focus on renewables to support energy transition. LONG-TERM TREND: Oil and gas production declining amid North Sea maturation. Shift to renewables underway. OIL AND GAS FUNDING: Activities via Nordsøfonden support short-term output while funding shift to renewables. DENMARK ENERGY THESIS: Crude oil 74,000 barrels per day (March 2026), long-term decline, Solsort field contributing 10%, 2024 production 4.1 million barrels, up 6%. Natural gas 2.5 terawatt-hours 2024, up 25%, Tyra II redevelopment, Solsort field, domestic production up 64%. Wind energy global leader, renewables focus, energy transition policy. European production 38 billion cubic meters 2026 forecast, including Denmark. Long-term oil and gas declining, North Sea maturation, renewables shift. Funding Nordsøfonden supports output while funding renewables transition. Denmark transitioning from oil and gas to renewables. Wind energy leader. Production declining. Renewables investment accelerating.

Thursday, July 30, 2026. FLORIDA ENERGY PROFILE. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Florida has negligible crude oil production, effectively zero, not among major U.S. producing states. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Minimal natural gas production, approximately 20 billion cubic feet annually (pre-2015 baseline), less than 1% of U.S. totals. ELECTRICITY GENERATION: Natural gas fuels over 70% of Florida's in-state electricity generation, but relies on pipeline imports, not local production. Net summer capacity approximately 72 gigawatts. REFINERIES: Zero oil refineries in Florida; relies entirely on imported petroleum products via terminals and pipelines. CONSUMPTION VERSUS PRODUCTION: Florida ranks high in energy use; nearly 8 times more energy used than produced. ELECTRICITY GENERATION SHIFT: Natural gas share of power generation rose from 31% (2002) to 75% (2022); oil-fired generation dropped to approximately 1%; all supplied via external sources. END-USE CONSUMPTION: Petroleum dominates end-use (~61%), followed by electricity (~27%) and natural gas (~8%); underscores import dependence. OFFSHORE POTENTIAL: Untapped oil and natural gas deposits may exist in eastern Gulf of Mexico; current federal restrictions limit development; 2014 study projected major economic benefits (jobs, GDP) if opened. 2025-2026 OUTLOOK: Continued reliance on out-of-state supplies; focus on renewables and solar growth; natural gas infrastructure development; no significant local production growth projected. FLORIDA ENERGY THESIS: Crude oil negligible production, zero refineries, entirely import-dependent. Natural gas minimal production, over 70% of electricity generation relies on imports. Electricity natural gas dominates at 75%, oil-fired at 1%, solar and renewables growing. Consumption petroleum 61%, electricity 27%, natural gas 8%, import-dependent economy. Offshore untapped potential in eastern Gulf of Mexico, federal restrictions limit development. Outlook continued imports, renewables focus, solar growth, natural gas infrastructure. Florida is a major energy consumer, not a producer, import-dependent, renewable energy transition underway.

Wednesday, July 29, 2026. CRUDE OIL MARKET UPDATE: WTI trading near $82.30-$82.66 (up sharply +$3.05 to +$3.40; +3.85% to +4.29% for the day). WTI futures (Sep 2026) closed/traded near $82.47-$82.57; intraday highs ~$83.32. Daily performance strong rally reversing from previous close around $79.26. Breaking news driver U.S. crude inventories built again despite disruptions in Strait of Hormuz. Other headlines OPEC+ preparing to halt further output target increases; Saudi Aramco shut 400K bpd refinery after Houthi strike. Geopolitical factors escalating Middle East tensions (Libya protests threatening supply) and Iran-related developments contributing to volatility. Physical market context oil prices ignoring certain warning signs in fundamentals while refined fuels drive much of market dynamics. STRAIT OF HORMUZ TANKER TRAFFIC: Renewed US-Iran conflict and blockade; vessel traffic slumped after US blockade took effect mid-July 2026. Lloyd's List Intelligence (week through Jul 20) 53 vessel transits (down 66% from 157 prior week); tanker and gas carrier crossings fell to 30 from 90. Daily crossings collapse Kpler data showed daily crossings averaging >20 vessels before Jul 15, dropping to 16 on Jul 15, then single digits on Jul 16; S&P Global reported ~40 vessels Jul 17-19 (averaging ~13/day). Broader crisis context shipping traffic largely blocked by Iran since late Feb 2026 following US/Israel strikes; numbers dropped near zero initially; June 17 US-Iran MOU enabled cautious, uneven restart (limited crude oil recovery; LNG/fertilizer largely stalled). Mid-July decline (Jul 13-19/20) Lloyd's List Intelligence tracked 78 transits (down from 174 prior week); non-Iranian-linked ships fell to 25 from 108; tanker transits collapsed to 39 from 85; inbound traffic especially weak. Ongoing blockade and attacks (late Jul) as of Jul 27-28, Windward reported US blockade as active with continued low crossings and incidents (vessels struck/attacked while transiting); US strikes on Iran continued. Recent escalation and freefall Lloyd's List reported tanker traffic in "freefall" and transits collapsing to early-conflict lows by late Jul due to escalating violence against ships and navigation risks (war risk premiums surged). Route and fleet splits traffic (where occurring) split between Iranian northern routes and US-backed options; shadow fleet activity noted; many vessels remain stranded in Gulf. Post-MOU recovery stalled by late Jun/early Jul, any gains from June MOU erased by renewed hostilities; crude flows only partially restarted; overall confidence low. Geopolitical drivers direct attacks on tankers (by Tehran), Houthi-related spillover risks, enforcement actions compounded blockade effects; activity far below normal levels for this critical chokepoint (normally handles ~20-25% of global oil trade). NATURAL GAS MARKET UPDATE: Spot price (Jul 20, 2026) $2.80/MMBtu (up 1.82% from prior day). Recent spot data Jul 17 $2.75; Jul 10 $2.73; Jul 2 $3.34. Futures (late Jul 28) front-month/nearby Henry Hub Natural Gas futures (NYMEX) trading around $2.69-$2.70; specific contracts (expiration late Jul 2026) near $2.64-$2.66. Monthly context (2026 YTD) Jan $7.72, Feb $3.62, Mar $3.04, Apr $2.77, May $2.94, Jun $3.15 (Jul data pending). OPEC+ PRODUCTION OUTLOOK: OPEC+ crude output (Jun 2026) averaged 36.28 mb/d (up ~3 mb/d from May), driven by Gulf producers resuming output as Hormuz flows recovered. IEA estimate (Jun 2026) total OPEC+ reached 32.44 mb/d (up from 30.3 mb/d in May); OPEC 18.39 mb/d; non-OPEC OPEC+ 14.05 mb/d. Country-level (Jun 2026, IEA) Saudi Arabia ~7.34 mb/d; Iraq ~1.96 mb/d; Kuwait ~1.37 mb/d; Russia ~8.86 mb/d. Spare capacity and targets OPEC+ showed substantial effective spare capacity with implied targets reflecting ongoing quotas/voluntary cuts amid post-conflict recovery. Non-OPEC liquids supply growth (2026) OPEC MOMR forecasts ~0.6 mb/d (unchanged), driven by Brazil, US, Canada, Argentina. DoC/NGLs and non-conventional liquids forecast to grow ~0.1 mb/d y/y to average 8.8 mb/d. Demand growth revision OPEC cut 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780K b/d (third consecutive downward revision, down 190K b/d); potential upside for H2 if tensions ease. IEA global supply forecast world oil supply projected to average 102.6 mb/d in 2026 (down 3.7 mb/d y/y due to conflict impacts); potential rebound +7.5 mb/d in 2027 assuming recovery. Geopolitical/production recovery Jun rebound followed Hormuz-related shutdowns; full normalization depends on sustained de-escalation with risks of renewed disruptions. OPEC+ strategy preparing to halt further output target increases. THE READ: Crude WTI near $82.30-$82.66, up +3.85% to +4.29%, strong rally reversing from $79.26, inventories built despite Hormuz disruptions, OPEC+ halting output increases, Saudi Aramco refinery shut after Houthi strike, geopolitical volatility, refined fuels driving market. Gas spot $2.80/MMBtu, up 1.82%, futures $2.69-$2.70, monthly...

Tuesday, July 28, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $79.15 (down ~4.2% intraday; day's range ~$77.81-$82.42). Overall bias Strong Sell; bearish signals. Recent action sharp decline from prior closes near $82; tests of lower supports. TECHNICAL INDICATORS (JUL 28): RSI(14) 40.129 (Sell); Bloomberg WTI 36.04 (Sell). MACD(12,26) -0.57 (Sell); Bloomberg -2.584 (Sell). CCI(14) -172.6 (Sell; deeply negative). Williams %R -73.3 (Sell). Stochastic RSI oversold. Overall Summary Strong Sell (8 Sell, 1 Buy, 1 Neutral from indicators). Moving Averages all 12 MAs (MA5 to MA200, simple and exponential) signal Sell; price below key levels like MA50 (~$81.34-$81.44). KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $80.85 (micro-support Elliott Wave context; potential for further tests lower), $78.03 (S1 Classic Pivot), $77.40 (S2 Classic Pivot), EMA50 ~$81-$84 range (recent sessions). KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $79.07 (R1 Classic Pivot), $82-$89 (mid-July trading range). ADDITIONAL CONTEXT: Oversold conditions and potential EMA support could lead to consolidation or relief bounces; bounce attempts amid pauses in strikes/news flow; defensive positioning near $82. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading near $2.66-$2.74/MMBtu (down ~3.7-3.9% intraday; 3-month low). CME NGU26 contract 2.739 (down 0.049 or -1.76%). Monthly decline exceeded 16%. Recent closes earlier in week ~$2.88-$2.92. KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $2.75-$2.77 (recently tested/breached), $2.50-$2.21 (lower historical zones), $2.66-$2.74 (current trading range 3-month low). KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $3.00 (psychological/technical level), $3.40+ (higher resistance). MARKET DRIVERS: Strong U.S. Lower 48 production (~110.6 bcfd); inventories ~6%+ above five-year average; LNG feedgas flows softening due to maintenance; downside pressure from oversupply. TECHNICAL SIGNALS: Rangebound or pressured lower short-term; prices remain under pressure from fundamentals. EIA WEEKLY NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT (WEEK ENDING JUL 17, 2026; RELEASED JUL 23): Total Lower 48 working gas 3,056 Bcf. Net change +32 Bcf injection (from 3,024 Bcf prior week). Year-over-year comparison 16 Bcf (-0.5%) below same week 2025 (3,072 Bcf). Five-year average comparison 183 Bcf (+6.4%) above 2021-2025 average of 2,873 Bcf. REGIONAL BREAKDOWN: East +17 Bcf to 631 Bcf (0.3% below year-ago; +2.4% vs. 5-year avg.). Midwest +17 Bcf to 766 Bcf (+3.0% vs. year-ago; +5.9% vs. 5-year avg.). South Central +2 Bcf to 1,105 Bcf (-4.7% vs. year-ago; +3.4% vs. 5-year avg.); salt caverns -7 Bcf, nonsalt +9 Bcf. Pacific -5 Bcf to 314 Bcf (+5.7% vs. year-ago; +18.9% vs. 5-year avg.). Mountain unchanged at 240 Bcf (+0.8% vs. year-ago; +19.4% vs. 5-year avg.). MARKET CONTEXT: +32 Bcf injection slightly below some consensus estimates (~34 Bcf) but within broader 29-37 Bcf range. Overall total storage remains within five-year historical range. THE READ: Crude WTI near $79.15, Strong Sell, RSI 40.129, MACD -0.57, all moving averages Sell, support $80.85/$78.03/$77.40, resistance $79.07/$82-$89, oversold conditions, potential for consolidation or relief bounces. Gas Henry Hub near $2.66-$2.74, down 3.7-3.9% intraday, 3-month low, support $2.75-$2.77/$2.50-$2.21, resistance $3.00/$3.40+, strong production, inventories elevated, LNG maintenance softening feedgas flows, downside pressure. Storage 3,056 Bcf, +32 Bcf injection, -0.5% year-ago, +6.4% five-year average, East +17 Bcf, Midwest +17 Bcf, South Central +2 Bcf, Pacific -5 Bcf, Mountain unchanged, total storage within five-year range. WEEK 30 TECHNICALS THESIS: Crude Strong Sell, RSI 40, MACD negative, all MAs Sell, support $80.85/$78.03, resistance $79.07, oversold, consolidation or relief bounce potential. Gas near 3-month low, support $2.75-$2.77, resistance $3.00, strong production, elevated inventories, LNG maintenance, downside pressure. Storage elevated, +32 Bcf injection, -0.5% year-ago, +6.4% five-year average, East and Midwest strong builds, Pacific drawdown. Trade the charts, respect the levels.

Friday, July 24, 2026. SENEGAL ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Senegal emerging as significant offshore oil and gas producer with Sangomar oil project and Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project. SANGOMAR OIL PROJECT: Operated by Woodside Energy; Senegal's first major offshore oil project (formerly SNE field); located ~100 km south of Dakar. First oil Jun 2024. H1 2026 PRODUCTION: 17.9M barrels. Monthly outputs ~2.8-3.1M barrels (e.g., 3.1M in Jan/Mar/May; 2.8M in Feb; 2.9M in Apr/Jun). Monthly avg ~3M barrels/month (aligns with prior year avg; 36.2M barrels total in 2025). CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION: Exceeded 50M barrels by Dec 2025. CAPACITY: Operating near/at nameplate capacity (~100,000 bbl/d) for sustained periods. CONTRIBUTION TO WOODSIDE: Part of Woodside's overall 2025 production of 198.8 MMboe. EXPANSION POTENTIAL: Woodside and Senegal's Petrosen discussing potential Phase 2 development that could add ~250M barrels of recoverable oil resources. NATURAL GAS: Sangomar remains primarily oil project; associated gas volumes noted but not yet primary output; natural gas production expected at later stage. GREATER TORTUE AHMEYIM LNG PROJECT: Separate natural gas development (joint Senegal/Mauritania project); has its own production ramp-up. BROADER CONTEXT: Senegal's offshore oil and gas era emerging as significant producer with Sangomar and GTA projects. THE READ: Sangomar oil 17.9M barrels H1 2026, monthly avg 3M barrels, operating at nameplate capacity 100K bbl/d, cumulative production exceeded 50M barrels, Phase 2 expansion potential 250M barrels. Natural gas Sangomar associated gas not yet primary output, GTA LNG project separate development, production ramp-up underway. SENEGAL ENERGY THESIS: Sangomar oil project ramping toward full capacity, Phase 2 expansion potential significant, associated gas production expected later, Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project separate development, Senegal emerging as significant offshore producer, long-term growth trajectory strong, near-term focus on Sangomar optimization and Phase 2 FID. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Thursday, July 23, 2026. GUATEMALA ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Guatemala has minimal domestic crude oil and natural gas production and is net energy importer. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Current production Mar 2026 5.10K bbl/d (down slightly from 5.20 in Feb 2026). 2024 baseline ~6,217 bbl/d (ranks ~#97 globally). Historical context long-term avg ~11.1K bbl/d (1984-2026); peak 27K bbl/d (2002); recent low 1.7K bbl/d (late 2023). PROVEN RESERVES: 88.3M barrels (2025; #73 globally); equivalent to ~1.9 years of domestic consumption at 2024 rates. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Annual production 3,276,000 cubic meters (2026 data); ranks #93 globally (very low volume). Role in power generation increasing due to availability, flexibility, lower emissions vs. coal/oil. OIL CONSUMPTION: 2024 consumption ~124,149 bbl/d (#70 globally). Daily deficit ~118K bbl/d (consumption far exceeds production). OVERALL SECTOR PROFILE: Net energy importer produces small fraction of needs, relies heavily on imports. No major new production surges reported for 2025-2026. Regional context broader LAC natural gas production showed growth in early 2026; Guatemala-specific contributions remain negligible. THE READ: Crude oil 5.1K bbl/d, down from 6.2K in 2024, proven reserves 88.3M barrels, 1.9 years of consumption, long-term decline from 27K peak in 2002. Natural gas 3.3M cubic meters annually, minimal production, growing role in power generation. Consumption 124K bbl/d, 118K bbl/d daily deficit, net importer. GUATEMALA ENERGY THESIS: Crude oil production minimal and declining, proven reserves limited, natural gas production negligible, oil consumption far exceeds production, net energy importer, no major new production projects reported, long-term structural energy deficit. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Wednesday, July 22, 2026. BRITISH COLUMBIA ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. BC is Canada's leading natural gas producer and minor crude oil producer; emerging as major LNG exporter. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: BC natural gas 2025 7.4 Bcf/d (up 4.8% YoY; largest provincial increase). BC's share Canadian gas production ~39-40% (2025). BC's share growth from ~13% in 2000 to 40% in 2025 (more than doubled since 2010). National marketable gas ~18.8 Bcf/d (2026). MONTNEY FORMATION: Accounts for ~87% of producing wells and 86.9% of 2021 production; ~87% of BC gas. STATISTICS CANADA (MARCH 2026): Marketable natural gas production rose 5.6% YoY nationally to 755.1M gigajoules; BC contributed largest increase (+13.8% YoY). BC GAS PRODUCTION GROWTH: Rose 28% in five years to ~2021; 136% since 2005. Recent growth >2.5 Bcf/d since 2018. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: BC crude oil minimal (~0.1-0.3M bbl/d range). National crude oil edged up 0.2% nationally (Statistics Canada March 2026). LNG EXPORTS: LNG Canada Phase 1 (Kitimat) 14 MTPA facility; first export cargo loaded Jun 30, 2025; Train 2 entered production Nov 2025; ramping toward full Phase 1 capacity (1.84 Bcf/d) into 2026. LNG CANADA PHASE 2: Joint venture participants approved funding in 2026 for potential FID by year-end; project would double capacity to 28 MTPA; designated "project of national interest". FEDERAL-PROVINCIAL ACCELERATION AGREEMENT (JUL 2026): Canada and BC signed Cooperative Prosperity Agreement to fast-track permitting/financing/construction of four priority LNG projects: LNG Canada Phase 2, Ksi Lisims LNG, Cedar LNG, Woodfibre LNG. WOODFIBRE LNG: Near Squamish; 2.1 MTPA project under construction; expected online 2027. CEDAR LNG: Kitimat; floating LNG facility (3 MTPA); positive FID 2024; early construction underway; targeted in-service late 2028. KSI LISIMS LNG: Proposed 1.6-1.8 Bcf/d project; FID expected early 2026; designated "project of national interest". TILBURY LNG: FortisBC facility exports small volumes; Phase 2 expansion (up to 2.5 MTPA) in planning/approvals; potential completion ~2028. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: LNG exports (led by LNG Canada) projected to boost BC GDP by ~$8B/year; natural gas royalties rising to $1.2B in 2026-27. GLOBAL LNG SUPPLY 2026: Forecast to rise ~7% (~40 bcm) with contributions from Canada (BC projects), U.S., Qatar; expected to ease market tightness/support Asian demand growth. MARKET POSITIONING: BC LNG targets Asian markets with West Coast delivery advantage; high costs (feed gas + pipeline tolls) make projects sensitive to prices below ~$7-9/MMBtu; oversupply risks noted for late 2020s. THE READ: Natural gas 7.4 Bcf/d, up 4.8% YoY, 40% of Canadian production, Montney driving growth, crude oil minimal. LNG exports LNG Canada Phase 1 ramping, Phase 2 FID targeted year-end, four priority projects accelerated via federal-provincial agreement, Woodfibre 2027, Cedar 2028, Ksi Lisims FID early 2026. Economic impact $8B/year GDP boost, $1.2B natural gas royalties 2026-27. BRITISH COLUMBIA ENERGY THESIS: Natural gas production leading Canadian growth, Montney Formation driving output, LNG Canada Phase 1 operational, Phase 2 expansion approved, four priority LNG projects accelerated, Asian market focus, high cost sensitivity, long-term oversupply risks, near-term growth trajectory strong. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, July 21, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $81.90-$82.20 (Sep 2026 contract). Recent momentum bullish; strong buy signals on moving averages. Price action tested/breached ~$79 level in mid-July. KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $83.26-$83.38 (Pivot Point 1st Resistance/R1 Classic/Fibonacci), $83.91-$84.60 (R2/1-month high area), $84.73-$85.08 (2nd Resistance/price 2 SD resistance), $87.40 (3rd Resistance Pivot), $88.51 (14-day RSI at 70%). KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $80.59-$80.78 (Pivot Point/S2-S3 area Classic/Fibonacci), $79.12 (1st Support Pivot), $76.45-$76.54 (2nd Support/9-day MA crossover area), $74.98 (3rd Support Pivot), $67.12 (13-week/1-month low longer-term). TECHNICAL INDICATORS (JUL 20): RSI(14) 51.712 (Neutral), MACD(12,26) 0.23 (Buy), Overall Technical Summary Strong Buy (11 buy signals from moving averages; 6 buy from indicators), Moving Averages Majority Buy (MA5, MA10, MA50, MA100, MA200 all Buy; one Sell on MA20 simple), Stochastic(9,6) 66.444 (Buy), ADX(14) 32.867 (Buy; indicates trend strength), Williams %R -42.577 (Buy). ADDITIONAL CONTEXT: TradingView/analyst ideas highlight zones near $76.50-$77.20 as notable supports; upside targets around $87.50+ in bullish scenarios; pivot points and moving averages (e.g., 40-day MA) provide dynamic levels. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading near $2.84-$2.86/MMBtu (front-month NGQ26 or similar). Recent spot ~$2.83/MMBtu. KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $2.80-$2.83 (immediate support; recent daily lows; key floor), $3.00 (psychological/technical support; widely referenced critical level; major floor with buyers active), $3.05-$3.14 (support cluster; pivot points and channel bottoms). KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $2.90-$2.91 (recent highs; short-term ceiling in intraday ranges), $3.13-$3.23 (nearby contract-specific pivots and prior reaction highs), $3.38-$3.40 (first notable upside barrier; crucial resistance), $3.47-$3.53 (Fibonacci resistance; 38.2% retracement and pivot points), $3.60-$3.65 (prior swing highs; 50% Fib retracements; proximity to longer-term moving averages), $3.62-$4.05 (200-day EMA zone and 50-day MA targets; potential upside magnets if momentum builds). TECHNICAL SIGNALS: Indicators showing "Strong Sell" bias recently; price consolidating near lower levels; potential for volatility around storage reports and weather. LONGER-TERM CONTEXT: 2026 EIA average projection near $3.60; front-month futures highly volatile. EIA WEEKLY NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT (WEEK ENDING JUL 10, 2026; RELEASED JUL 16): Working gas in storage 3,024 Bcf (Lower 48 states). Weekly change net injection of +41 Bcf (from 2,983 Bcf prior week). Year-over-year comparison 21 Bcf (0.7%) below same week 2025. Five-year average comparison 181 Bcf (6.4%) above five-year (2021-2025) average of 2,843 Bcf. Prior week (ending Jul 3; released Jul 9) 2,983 Bcf after +61 Bcf injection. MARKET CONTEXT: +41 Bcf print within typical consensus range (~38-45 Bcf); roughly in line with surveys; ended short streak of larger-than-expected builds. PRICE REACTION: NYMEX August contract traded near $2.85-$2.92/MMBtu in immediate aftermath; front month in lower range after breaking below $3.00. BROADER INVENTORY OUTLOOK (EIA STEO JUL 2026): Inventories remained above five-year average through much of forecast period due to record production; end-October 2026 working gas projected at ~3,966 Bcf (5% above average). FUNDAMENTALS: Production eased slightly; LNG feedgas flows impacted by maintenance (e.g., Freeport); weather supported power-sector demand. REPORT SCHEDULE: Weekly releases Thursdays 10:30 a.m. ET; next after Jul 16 would be Jul 23 (covering week ending Jul 17). THE READ: Crude WTI near $82, strong buy signals, resistance $83.26-$83.38/$84.73-$85.08/$87.40, support $80.59-$80.78/$79.12/$76.45-$76.54, bullish momentum intact. Gas Henry Hub near $2.84-$2.86, support $2.80-$2.83/$3.00, resistance $2.90-$2.91/$3.38-$3.40/$3.60-$3.65, strong sell bias, consolidating near lower levels. Storage 3,024 Bcf, +41 Bcf injection, 0.7% below year-ago, 6.4% above five-year average, inventories elevated, record production supporting builds. WEEK 29 TECHNICALS THESIS: Crude strong buy signals, resistance $83.26-$85.08, support $80.59-$76.45, bullish momentum, upside targets $87.50+. Gas support $2.80-$3.00, resistance $3.38-$4.05, strong sell bias, consolidating, volatility around storage and weather. Storage elevated inventories, record production, end-October projection 3,966 Bcf, 5% above average. Trade the charts, respect the levels.

Monday, July 20, 2026. WEEK 29 OPENS. Twenty-nine weeks running. The decoupling thesis continues to deliver. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI crude oil surging. Front-month futures Aug 2026 CLQ6 ~$82.47 (up $3.52 or +4.46%). Sep 2026 CLU6 ~$81.77-$83.42 (up ~$3.50 or +4.46% range). Recent session gains ~$81.78 (up $3.50 or +4.47%) on Jul 17; extended to ~$82.49-$84.21 by Jul 19. Intraday/recent trading range highs near $85.39, lows ~$83.61; prices $84.20-$84.64 in late Jul 19 updates (+~2%). Weekly performance notable gains; strongest weekly advance in months; prices back above $80. PRIMARY DRIVER: Escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities; attacks impacting tanker traffic in Strait of Hormuz; supply disruption fears. MARKET CONTEXT: Oil prices rose on renewed geopolitical risk premium; Brent also seeing strength (levels above $90). STRAIT OF HORMUZ STATUS: Normal capacity ~20M bbl/d (~20% of global seaborne crude/condensate trade; ~25% of world seaborne oil trade). RECENT DISRUPTIONS: Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities in July slowed shipments again after partial post-ceasefire recovery. Traffic levels only 11 vessels transited Jul 12 (lowest since mid-June); traffic "throttled" or at a "crawl". IRAN'S POSITION: Declared strait an "unbreakable red line"; warned against U.S. interference; threatened "long and painful strikes" or destruction of regional infrastructure if attacks resume. SHIPPING RESPONSES: Major operators (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd) and oil majors suspended/halted transits earlier; some activity restarted post-June MOU/ceasefire but faces renewed caution. PARTIAL RECOVERY POST-JUNE: U.S.-Iran MOU/ceasefire around mid-June enabled some resumption (e.g., Saudi shipments ~34M barrels since Jun 17); flows remain well below pre-crisis levels. IMPACT ON GULF CRUDE EXPORTS: Exports jumped in July amid efforts to clear inventories; shipments slowed due to renewed hostilities; risk premiums on Gulf grades risen. HISTORICAL CONTEXT: Pre-crisis (1H 2025) averages ~20.9M bbl/d total oil flows; crude/condensate ~14.7M bbl/d. 2026 crisis caused largest oil market disruption in history; traffic dropped >90% at peaks. GEOPOLITICAL RISK OUTLOOK: Shipping risk downgraded from "extreme" to "severe" post-June MOU; remains uncertain with potential for sporadic incidents; Iran retains capabilities to disrupt via asymmetric means. OPEC+ PRODUCTION/DEMAND: OPEC+ crude oil production Jun 2026 36.28M bbl/d (up ~3M bbl/d from May levels) as Gulf producers resumed output halted by Hormuz closure following U.S.-Iran interim agreement. 2026 GLOBAL OIL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST: Lowered to 780,000 b/d (third consecutive downward revision; down 190,000 b/d from prior estimate) reflecting Iran war impact. 2027 OIL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST: Raised to 1.94M bbl/d (up 210,000 b/d from previous outlook) citing potential stabilization. GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY 2026: Projected to have declined significantly due to Middle East disruptions (IEA estimates ~3.9M bbl/d drop to ~102M bbl/d range); partial offsets from non-OPEC+ gains/Atlantic Basin exports. NON-DOC LIQUIDS SUPPLY GROWTH 2026: ~1.1M bbl/d driven mainly by U.S., Brazil, Canada. DOC CRUDE DEMAND 2026: Expected to reach ~42.7M bbl/d (up ~0.2M bbl/d from 2025). OPEC+ OUTPUT MONITORING: Significant month-on-month gains in June tied to Hormuz recovery; full normalization faces operational/political hurdles (e.g., demining). BROADER CONTEXT: Reduced geopolitical tensions potentially supporting economic growth/oil demand in H2 2026; OPEC viewing smaller consumption impact than some other forecasters (e.g., IEA). NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Henry Hub spot prices recent closes hovering near $2.90/MMBtu. EIA monthly averages 2026 Jan $7.72, Feb $3.62, Mar $3.04, Apr $2.77, May $2.94, Jun $3.15. Jul data pending; next release ~Jul 22. CME Henry Hub futures NGQ26 prompt ~$2.888 (as of Jul 19; down ~0.8%). RECENT DAILY SPOT PRICES: Jul 13 $2.83, Jul 10 $2.73, Jul 9 $3.17, Jul 8 $3.13, Jul 7 $3.13. Markets Insider daily closes Jul 2026 Jul 17 close ~$2.92 (high $2.93, low $2.84), Jul 16 close ~$2.89, Jul 15 close ~$2.92, earlier days $2.85-$2.95 range. CONTEXT: Spot prices published with short lag (typically few days); Jul 20 values not yet available; futures/recent closes hovered near $2.90/MMBtu. THE READ: Crude WTI surging to $82-$84 on Strait of Hormuz disruption fears, geopolitical risk premium elevated, OPEC+ production recovering but demand growth forecast lowered. Support $80, resistance $85-$86. Gas Henry Hub near $2.90, spot prices lagging futures, contango structure intact, accumulation zone holding. WEEK 29 THESIS: Crude geopolitical premium driving rally, Strait of Hormuz remains critical flashpoint, OPEC+ recovering but demand growth slowing. Support $80, resistance $85-$86. Gas spot near $2.90, futures contango intact, accumulation zone holding, target $3.50 for year. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Friday, July 17, 2026. UZBEKISTAN ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Uzbekistan is major natural gas producer and declining crude oil producer. Shifted from net exporter to increasingly import-dependent. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Q1 2026 9.6 bcm (15% drop from 11.3 bcm Q1 2025). First five months 2026 15.8 bcm (down from 18.4 bcm same period 2025; ~14% decline or ~2.6 bcm drop). January 2026 3.7 bcm (down 7.5% YoY). 2026 FULL-YEAR TARGET: 40.2 bcm (planned). 2025 FULL-YEAR MARKETED PRODUCTION: 40.4 bcm (OPEC data). EXPORT REVENUES/IMPORT SPENDING: Export revenues Q1 2026 $36.7M (down sharply from $94.3M Q1 2025). Import spending Q1 2026 $360.5M on natural gas imports (up 2.2x YoY). RUSSIAN PIPELINE GAS SUPPLIES: Expected to rise to just over 10 bcm in 2026 (from 7 bcm in 2025; >40% increase) routed via Kazakhstan through Central Asia-Center system. GLOBAL RANKING: ~17th in natural gas production (mid-40s bcm range annually). TREND: Shifted from long-time net exporter, relying increasingly on imports due to aging fields, rising domestic demand, declining output. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Current 29,000 bbl/d (March 2026; unchanged from prior months). Record low 29,000 bbl/d reached Aug 2025. Long-term avg since 1993 ~65,000 bbl/d. 2024 PRODUCTION: 46,122 bbl/d. Q1 2026 OUTPUT (TONS): 157,300 tons (down from 160,800 tons Q1 2025). January 2026 54,100 tons (1.8% decline YoY). PROVEN RESERVES: 594M barrels (2025); ranks #46 globally; ~0.034% of world reserves. NEW EXPLORATION POTENTIAL: Ustyurt region estimated 100M tons of oil + 35 bcm of gas; projects targeting up to 1M tons bitumen oil production by 2025, larger long-term output. PRODUCTION CONCENTRATION: Bukhara-Khiva ~70% of output historically. NEW PARTNERSHIPS: New production sharing agreements/seismic work (e.g., with BP/SOCAR in 2026) aim to boost future output; near-term figures show continued decline. PRODUCTION TREND: Trended downward from peaks in late 1990s. THE READ: Natural gas 9.6 bcm Q1 2026, down 15% YoY, export revenues collapsed, import spending up 2.2x, Russian imports surging, structural shift from exporter to importer. Crude oil 29,000 bbl/d record low, down from 65,000 avg since 1993, proven reserves 594M barrels, new exploration potential in Ustyurt, near-term decline trend. UZBEKISTAN ENERGY THESIS: Natural gas production declining sharply, export revenues collapsing, import dependency rising, Russian pipeline gas surging, crude oil at record lows, structural shift from exporter to importer, new exploration potential offers long-term upside but near-term headwinds persist. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Thursday, July 16, 2026. MEXICO ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Mexico is a major crude oil producer and net natural gas importer. Energy sector dominated by Pemex (state-owned petroleum company). CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Q1 2026 1.652M bpd (up 38k from Q1 2025). March 2026 1.745M bbl/d (up from 1.736M Feb 2026). 2026 government target 1.8M bpd (facing significant challenges/potential delays). Finance ministry forecast ~1.78M bpd in 2026. 2025 avg ~1.6M bpd. Mid-2025 Aug ~1.64M bpd. KEY CRUDE OIL FIELDS: Maloob, Ixachi, Zaap, Ayatsil, Quesqui. S&P GLOBAL ASSESSMENT: Questions feasibility of 1.8M bpd target; cites ongoing operational issues/need for continued government support. 2026 INVESTMENT PLAN: ~425B pesos (~$21B; 34% increase) to Pemex targeting 1.8M bpd crude/4.5 Bcf/d natural gas through 2030. REFINING: Crude refining rose 22.2% YoY in Q1 2026 to 1.141M bpd. BROADER CONTEXT: Long-term decline from historical peaks; efforts focused on new fields, mixed contracts, attracting private investment. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Q1 2026 wet/hydrocarbon gas 3.925 Bcf/d (up 12% or +423 MMcf/d YoY). Dry gas ~2.3 Bcf/d (recently; projected to stay near 2.299-2.302 Bcf/d in 2025-2026). Q2 2025 3.592 Bcf/d (down ~139 MMcf/d YoY); dry gas from plants 1.615 Bcf/d (down 12% YoY). 2025 FULL-YEAR OUTPUT: ~3.67 Bcf/d total; dry gas ~1.7 Bcf/d. DOMESTIC DEMAND/IMPORT RELIANCE: Domestic demand ~9 Bcf/d (or higher). Domestic production share only ~25%; ~75% imported (mainly via U.S. pipelines). U.S. EXPORT FORECASTS TO MEXICO: ~6.83 Bcf/d in 2025 (up from 6.46 Bcf/d in 2024); continued strength/records expected into 2026 due to Pemex output constraints. HISTORICAL CONTEXT: Pemex dry gas production declined from ~5 Bcf/d in 2010 to ~2.3 Bcf/d recently. LONGER-TERM TARGETS: >4 Bcf/d by 2030 (potentially up to 8.6 Bcf/d with unconventional development). KEY NATURAL GAS FIELDS: Bakté, Ixachi. EXPORT POSITION: Mexico net importer; minimal natural gas exports. THE READ: Crude 1.65-1.75M bpd, 1.8 target at risk, refining up 22%, investment plan in place, long-term decline trend. Gas 3.9 Bcf/d wet, 2.3 dry, 75% imported from U.S., Pemex output constraints driving record U.S. exports to Mexico. MEXICO ENERGY THESIS: Crude production stable but below target, refining gains supporting domestic supply, natural gas heavily import-dependent, U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico at record levels, long-term structural challenge for Pemex. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Wednesday, July 15, 2026. EIA PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT RELEASED. Jul 15, 2026, 10:30 a.m. ET. Covering week ending ~Jul 10, 2026. CRUDE OIL INVENTORY DATA: Prior week (ending Jul 3, released Jul 8): U.S. crude oil inventories 411.4M barrels (+3.0M week-over-week; first build after 10 consecutive weeks of declines). Level ~6% below 5-year average for this time of year. REFINERY METRICS: Crude oil refinery inputs 17.0M b/d (down 173k b/d from prior week). Refinery operable capacity utilization 95.8%. Gasoline production 9.7M b/d (decreased from prior week). Distillate fuel production 5.2M b/d (decreased from prior week). IMPORTS/PRODUCTS: Crude oil imports 5.6M b/d (up 351k b/d from prior week); 4-week avg ~5.4M b/d (down 11.4% YoY). Motor gasoline inventories decreased 1.9M barrels week-over-week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased 5.0M barrels week-over-week (~12% below 5-year average). Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased 4.0M barrels week-over-week. DEMAND METRICS: Total products supplied (4-week avg) 20.6M b/d (+0.3% YoY). 4-week motor gasoline supplied 9.0M b/d (down 2.2% YoY). BROADER CONTEXT: Global/OECD inventory draws due to geopolitical factors (Middle East supply disruptions). OECD stocks heading toward multi-decade lows. Global inventories forecast to shift toward builds later 2026. PRICE FORECASTS: EIA forecasts Brent ~$74/bbl in 3Q26, ~$65/bbl in 2027 amid easing inventory pressure/rising supply. IEA OIL MARKET REPORT (Jul 2026): Refined product cracks/margins at 4-year highs in early Jul as crude supplies rose/prices fell. Global observed inventories rose in Jun for first time in months. NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (most recent; week ending Jul 3, released Jul 9). Storage level working gas 2,983 Bcf as of Jul 3, 2026. Weekly change net injection +61 Bcf (above consensus ~58-60 Bcf; above 5-year avg ~51-54 Bcf). Year-over-year 15 Bcf below same week last year. 5-year avg 185 Bcf (~7%) above 5-year average 2,798 Bcf. MARKET CONTEXT: Build occurred amid peak summer cooling demand/record heat. Production strong. LNG feedgas near 19 Bcf/d. PRICE IMPACT: Larger-than-expected injection viewed as bearish. Contributed to declines in natural gas futures. Aug contract dropped notably post-report. REGIONAL NOTE: Midwest saw highest net injections (~23 Bcf) in reported week. HENRY HUB FUTURES/SPOT: Henry Hub futures mid-Jul 2026 trading ~$2.89-$2.90/MMBtu (~2.898 recent data). Henry Hub spot Jun 2026 monthly avg ~$3.14/MMBtu. Broader 2026 avg projected near $3.60/MMBtu in EIA outlooks. OUTLOOK: High inventories expected to limit upward price pressure through 2026. Henry Hub spot forecast to avg just under $3.50/MMBtu for year in some EIA projections. Next release Jul 16, 2026 (Thursday, 10:30 a.m. ET). THE READ: Crude first build after 10 weeks of declines, inventories 6% below 5-year average, refinery runs down, demand flat, geopolitical premium fading. Support $75, resistance $82. Gas larger-than-expected injection bearish for near-term, high inventories limiting upside, target $3.50 for year. WEEK 28 MIDWEEK THESIS: Crude inventory build signals easing supply stress, geopolitical premium fading. Support $75, resistance $82. Gas storage build bearish, high inventories limiting upside, target $3.50 for year. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, July 14, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS. WTI crude oil trading ~$79.40-$80.05. Sharp recent rally. Price surged 10%+ in week leading into Jul 14 driven by geopolitical developments (US measures affecting Iranian oil transit through Strait of Hormuz). TECHNICAL SIGNALS: Strong Buy based on technical indicators/moving averages. RSI(14) ~80.7-82.0 (Overbought territory; potential caution for pullbacks/consolidation). MACD(12,26) ~1.72-1.73 (Buy signal; bullish momentum). Overall technical summary Strong Buy (8-12 buy signals across indicators, 0 sell). PIVOT POINTS: Classic pivot ~79.51. Supports 79.12/78.69/78.3. Resistances 79.94/80.33/80.76. BOLLINGER BANDS: Limited specific Jul 2026 data. Prices consolidating near middle band after decline, suggesting waning bearish momentum. No strong upper band touch/squeeze noted in latest analysis. SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS: Support zones around 73-74, 70-71. Lower Fibonacci retracements ~68-70 area. Resistance near-term around 80-82. Longer-term Fibonacci extensions higher. CONTEXT: Earlier Jul RSI was oversold (~29) with bearish MACD bias. Prices hovered mid-$68s before recent rally. MOMENTUM: Strong recent momentum (+2%+ daily moves) aligns with bullish MACD/RSI overbought conditions. Watch for potential reversal if RSI fails to sustain or price rejects upper levels. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub futures ~$2.89/MMBtu (down 0.19% from prior day; down 1.63% or -1.70% in some reports). CME FUTURES: NGQ26 last at $2.902 (-1.29%) as of Jul 13 close. Investing.com futures $2.891 (-1.70%), previous close $2.896. RECENT PRICE ACTION: Jul 10 close $3.02. Jul 9 $3.22. Intraday ranges recently around $2.87-$3.02. SPOT VERSUS FUTURES: EIA spot Jul 6 $3.29 (down from $3.34 prior; weekly/daily updates lag). Spot prices lagging at higher levels (~$3.29 early Jul). Futures trading near $2.89-$2.90. THE SETUP: Crude overbought, RSI 80+, watch for pullback. Support 78.3-79.12, resistance 80.33-80.76. Gas futures down, spot holding higher, contango structure intact. WEEK 28 TECHNICALS: Crude Strong Buy but overbought, caution for pullbacks. Support 78.3, resistance 80.76. Gas futures down, spot holding, accumulation zone intact. Trade the charts, respect the levels.

Monday, July 13, 2026. WEEK 28 OPENS. WTI crude oil trading ~$74.42 (open $73.79, high $74.64, low $73.72, +0.87%). Sharp rebound from prior session. CME live quote late Jul 12 showed $74.36 (+4.13% or +$2.95 on day). CRUDE OIL SETUP: Prices risen from lows near $68-$71 earlier in July. Upward momentum into mid-month (fluctuated $68.55 Jul 6 to $73.52 Jul 8). Well below 2025-early 2026 highs (over $100 in some periods). KEY LEVELS: Resistance $74 (potential decision point for bullish moves above or bearish below ~$70). Support $70, resistance $75-$76. TECHNICAL SETUP: Crude consolidating mid-$70s range. Doha talks progress supporting sentiment. Watch for Strait of Hormuz developments. Geopolitical premium intact but fading. NATURAL GAS: Most recent spot Jul 6 $3.29/MMBtu (down from $3.34 prior day). Futures Jul 12 ~$2.915/MMBtu (-0.025 or -0.85%). Jul 10 futures close ~$2.95 (or $2.94 in some reports). Earlier July spot hovered $3.21-$3.34. DOHA TALKS UPDATE: Indirect US-Iran technical talks in Doha concluded ~Jul 1-2, 2026. Focus on Strait of Hormuz/related issues under earlier interim MOU. FORMAT: Indirect/technical talks (not direct bilateral meetings in all accounts). US envoys Steve Witkoff/Jared Kushner meeting Qatari officials (Emir/Prime Minister) alongside Iranian technical delegations via mediators. Qatar/Pakistan facilitated. PRIMARY TOPICS: Maritime traffic/shipping resumption through Strait of Hormuz (critical chokepoint handling ~20% global oil trade). Unfreezing Iranian assets/funds (~$6B references). Implementation of prior MOU/ceasefire. OTHER TOPICS: Nuclear issues, Lebanon ceasefire, broader peace discussed but limited headway. OUTCOMES: "Positive progress" or "building on" Jun interim MOU that halted fighting. Both sides agreed continue talks. No breakthrough on lasting peace deal or full nuclear agreement. VP Vance described talks as "going well" and "still pretty early." CONTEXT: Followed tit-for-tat US-Iran strikes over Hormuz shipping disputes earlier 2026. Initial interim deal mid-Jun 2026 halted attacks, reopened strait to pre-war shipping levels, extended ceasefire (~60 days in some reports), paved way for further nuclear talks. Iran faced accusations of attacks/toll proposals; US pushed against fees/tolls in favor of broader economic incentives. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: Talks occurred ahead of/around funeral for Iran's former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (killed in earlier strikes). Some reports noted pauses/questions about resumption post-funeral (around Jul 11) amid mentions of additional US strikes. STATUS: As of early Jul, existing Hormuz-related agreements remained in place despite stalled broader negotiations. THE READ: Crude consolidating mid-$70s, Doha talks progress supporting sentiment, geopolitical premium intact but fading. Support $70, resistance $75-$76. Gas $3.29 spot, $2.915 futures, accumulation zone intact. WEEK 28 THESIS: Crude Doha talks progress positive, Hormuz risk declining, geopolitical premium fading. Support $70, resistance $75-$76. Gas accumulation zone intact, target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Wednesday, January 8, 2026. WEEK 2 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil settled at $57.76, up $1.77 or 3.2%. Sharp rebound after two consecutive days of declines. Two-week high. Brent up 3.4% to $61.99. KEY DRIVERS: US actions on Venezuela's oil sector following reported capture of former leader Nicolas Maduro. Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced US oversight of Venezuelan crude sales. Intensified sanctions including seizure of Venezuela-linked oil tankers (one reportedly under Russian flag). Geopolitical tensions/supply concerns involving Russia, Iraq, Iran. President Donald Trump warning to Iran regarding protests/potential crackdowns. Broader reassessment of geopolitical shifts in Americas/Middle East. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot price ~$2.92/MMBtu Jan 8, 2026. Low $3 range or below around that time (below $3 Jan 9). Note will spike sharply later month due to Arctic blast (all-time highs near $28-$30/MMBtu around Jan 23-26). IRAN/STRAIT OF HORMUZ: Strait remains open with normal shipping traffic but geopolitical tensions rising sharply. Internal Iranian unrest, US warnings of potential military intervention. Market concerns over possible future disruptions to crude oil flows (normally ~20-25% global seaborne oil trade). PRE-CONFLICT BUILDUP: Iranian protests erupted late Dec 2025, intensified Jan 2026 after brutal crackdown. US threatened intervention, raising fears escalation could prompt Iran to threaten/close Strait. MARKET WARNINGS: Jan 12, 2026 report highlighted Strait returning to focus amid possible US action against Iran. Experts cautioning confrontation could lead Tehran to disrupt chokepoint. OIL PRICE OUTLOOK: BloombergNEF analysis projected Brent averaging $55/bbl for 2026 (assuming no major Iran-related disruptions) but noted risks of prices reaching $91/bbl in disruption scenario. POLYMARKET BETTING: Contracts on whether Iran would close/restrict Strait by Jan 31, 2026 resolved to No (reflecting no closure occurred in month despite tensions). BROADER FLOWS: EIA data showed Strait of Hormuz crude/condensate flows averaging ~20-21M bpd in prior periods; no Jan 2026 specific drop reported. THE SETUP: Crude Venezuela focus, Iran tensions rising, geopolitical premium building. Support $55, resistance $60. Gas $2.92/MMBtu, Arctic blast coming late month, expect volatility. WEEK 2 THESIS: Crude geopolitical premium building, Venezuela sanctions, Iran tensions. Watch for Strait escalation risk. Support $55, resistance $60. Gas expect volatility, Arctic blast late month, heating demand coming. Trade the data, not the headlines. TEAM NOTE: Energy Markets Daily team taking break this week and next. Usual daily cadence will return soon. Thank you for attention and support.

Friday, July 3, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: ECUADOR. CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS: Ecuador's crude oil production averaged ~461,000-466,000 bbl/d Jan-Feb 2026. Daily lifts reported ~452,817-458,207 bbl/d late Feb/early Mar. RECENT OUTPUT DECLINE: National production fell 1.5% YoY Jan-May 2026 period, continuing broader downward trend from 2025 lows (reported ranges ~349,000-465,000 bbl/d). INCREMENTAL GAINS H1 2026: Government and Petroecuador efforts added 35,000+ bbl/d incremental crude production H1 2026. Major contributions from fields Sacha (~10,510 bbl/d), Auca, Lago Agrio, others. EXPORT VOLUMES: Crude oil exports 337,333 bbl/d Dec 2025 (down from 356,000 in 2024). Earlier periods showed exports representing large share production (historically ~67% net). EXPORT VALUE/SHARE: Mineral fuels/oil ~20.9% total exports by value recent data (down ~19% YoY). Though crude/related products historically comprised ~36% Ecuador's exports. CHALLENGES/INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES: Production declines stem from aging/coroded infrastructure, frequent pipeline disruptions, underinvestment, policy factors. 2025 output described as 2-decade low in some reports. GOVERNMENT RECOVERY EFFORTS: Noboa administration pursued drilling rigs, field optimizations, multi-year investment plan. Targeting peaks above 600,000 bbl/d longer-term. Nearer-term goals >477,000 bbl/d possible by mid-2026 (including private operators). TRADING ECONOMICS FORECAST: Production expected ~445,000 bbl/d by end Q2 2026. Trending toward ~490,000 bbl/d 2027, ~530,000 bbl/d 2028 per econometric models. MARKET/EXPORT RISKS: Competition from rising Venezuelan heavy crude output could pressure demand/prices Ecuador's key export grades (e.g., Napo). Spot market sales emphasized in prior strategies. BROADER ENERGY/EXPORT CONTEXT: Oil remains core export/fiscal contributor. Non-oil exports (shrimp/fish) grown in importance. IEA notes historical net crude export trends/energy shares. BOTTOM LINE: Ecuador mid-sized crude producer facing infrastructure challenges/policy headwinds. Recent government efforts show incremental gains, recovery trajectory positive but gradual. Export competition from Venezuela and regional dynamics remain key risks.

Thursday, July 2, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: BELARUS. PRODUCTION OVERVIEW: Belarus produced ~25,000 bbl/d early 2026 (well below historical avg 33,650 bbl/d since 1993). Production reached 30-year high 2.013M metric tons 2025. Belorusneft targets 2.1M tons 2026, 2.3M tons by 2030 (supported by intensified drilling 100 wells planned, enhanced recovery technologies). RESERVES: 198M barrels as of 2025 (ranking ~57th globally; ~0.011% world total). HEAVY RELIANCE ON RUSSIA: Russia sole supplier crude oil/natural gas. Imports at preferential/political prices (gas ~$130/1000 m³ since 2018; oil linked to Urals with discounts). Provided Belarus substantial economic benefits (~$5.5B extra from 2022-2025 oil discounts). REFINING/PRODUCT EXPORTS: Belarus refines Russian crude, exports petroleum products. Growth expected in product transportation volumes. Some flows via Russian infrastructure (Ust-Luga port). GAS SUPPLY UNCERTAINTY: Late 2025/early 2026 Belarus lacked publicly confirmed long-term gas contract with Russia despite Lukashenko's statements. Negotiations continued over pricing/terms. EU SANCTIONS IMPACT: Extensive EU sanctions target Belarus's energy, trade, financial sectors (bans imports certain mineral products, exports luxury goods). Contributing to sharp drop EU trade, forcing pivot to Russian/Asian markets. 2026 SANCTIONS PACKAGES: EU's 20th sanctions package Apr 2026 added parallel measures against Belarus alongside Russia-focused actions (targeting military-industrial complex, energy sector circumvention, crypto services, more). GEOPOLITICAL ALIGNMENT: Sanctions and Russia-Ukraine war accelerated Belarus's economic, military, political integration with Russia (Russian military presence, nuclear weapons deployment). Fostering ties with China (SCO membership, BRICS partner status). GLOBAL RANKING: Belarus ranks ~70th world oil production (~27,846 bbl/d 2024 data). Focuses domestic needs plus limited product exports, not significant crude exports. BOTTOM LINE: Belarus minor oil producer deeply integrated with Russia for energy supplies, refining, exports. Amid ongoing EU/US sanctions and geopolitical alignment with Moscow. Limited upstream autonomy, strategic dependence on Russia. Western sanctions pressure continues.

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE: Latest reported week ending Jun 19, 2026 crude fell 6.088M barrels to 412.1M barrels (7% below 5-year avg). Cushing, Oklahoma stocks down over 1M barrels in latest week. BROADER CONTEXT: OECD stocks heading toward multi-decade lows driven by Iran-related conflict and Strait of Hormuz issues. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Jun 2026 forecasts 6.3M bpd global inventory declines in Q2 2026. Brent prices expected ~$105/bbl Jun/Jul before potential easing later in year. REFINERY ACTIVITY: Runs and utilization high to offset supply gaps, contributing to inventory draws. GASOLINE AND DISTILLATE STOCKS: Gasoline +2.064M barrels, distillates +3.064M barrels (contrasting crude draw; refineries running hard to produce products). NATURAL GAS: No EIA storage report today (releases occur Thursdays 10:30 a.m. ET). Next release Jul 2, 2026 (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). Latest storage data week ending Jun 19, 2026: Working gas in storage 2,835 Bcf. Net injection +76 Bcf from prior week. Year-over-year 49 Bcf below same week 2025. Five-year average 152 Bcf above average. THE SETUP: Crude inventories falling, multi-decade lows, support for higher prices, but WTI trading $70, consolidation continues. Support $67.93, resistance $71.84. Watch for EIA data surprises. Doha talks ongoing. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation zone intact. WEEK 27 THESIS: Crude fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered, geopolitical premium fading but Hormuz risk remains. Short any bounces above $72. Target $65-$67. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation intact. Target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Immediate daily pivot support cluster ~$69.88-$70.17 (supports just below current price). Nearby resistances ~$70.46-$70.58. Near-term support ~$67-$68 (recent lows, swing references). 200-day moving average support ~$66.14 (major longer-term support). Deeper support ~$60-$65 (psychological round number, prior zones; $65 potential downside objective). Immediate resistance ~$71-$73 (recent highs, swing points, pivot resistances). Former support now resistance ~$74-$76 (key zone from prior price action). Next resistance ~$80 (notable upside target/barrier). 50-day moving average resistance ~$89 (longer-term moving average overhead resistance). SETUP: Crude in consolidation. Support at $67.93. Resistance at $71.84. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. Watch Doha talks. Hormuz escalation risk remains. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading ~$3.17-$3.19. Intraday range ~$3.170-$3.313. INDICATORS: RSI(14) 32.85-34.09 (Sell signal, neutral-to-oversold, weakening momentum, potential further downside/consolidation). MACD(12,26) -0.027 to -0.031 (Sell signal, negative, confirming bearish momentum). Overall technical Strong Sell (moving averages Sell, technical indicators Strong Sell). PIVOT POINTS: S3 ~3.164, S2 ~3.171, S1 ~3.179, Pivot ~3.186, R1 ~3.194, R2 ~3.201, R3 ~3.209. MOVING AVERAGES: Price trading below most SMAs/EMAs. MA5 ~3.186-$3.194 range mixed signals. MA10/20/50/100/200 mostly Sell. OTHER INDICATORS: STOCH(9,6) ~12.8 (Oversold). Williams %R ~-87 (Oversold). CCI(14) ~-100 (Sell). ADX(14) ~25 (Sell/trending). 52-WEEK RANGE: ~2.48-$7.83. SUPPORT/RESISTANCE: Support near 2.9-$3.0. Resistance around 3.1-$3.3. DOHA TALKS UPDATE: Trump announced Iran requested meeting, taking place today Doha. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner flying to Doha for high-level meetings this week. Iran denies direct talks (Iranian officials state delegation heading to Doha but NOT for direct US meetings). Focus implementing MOU via Qatari mediators. Stand-down agreement both sides agreed halt attacks "for now," allow vessels move freely Strait of Hormuz, continue technical talks MOU. Context tit-for-tat strikes weekend linked Strait of Hormuz disputes, strains interim deal. MOU focus resolve shipping safety, cease-fire implementation, Iran's role/management claims over strait. Qatari role acting mediator/host. Iranian position describes situation "sensitive and complex," continues asserting influence Hormuz management. THE READ: Crude consolidating $70, support $67.93, resistance $71.84. Watch Doha talks. Hormuz risk remains. Gas oversold (RSI 32, MACD negative), support near $3.0, resistance $3.1-$3.3. Accumulation zone intact but momentum weak. Doha talks critical. If successful crude could fade $65-$67. If escalation resumes crude could spike $75-$80. Trade the technicals. Respect the levels.