Energy Markets Daily

Tuesday, July 28, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $79.15 (down ~4.2% intraday; day's range ~$77.81-$82.42). Overall bias Strong Sell; bearish signals. Recent action sharp decline from prior closes near $82; tests of lower supports. TECHNICAL INDICATORS (JUL 28): RSI(14) 40.129 (Sell); Bloomberg WTI 36.04 (Sell). MACD(12,26) -0.57 (Sell); Bloomberg -2.584 (Sell). CCI(14) -172.6 (Sell; deeply negative). Williams %R -73.3 (Sell). Stochastic RSI oversold. Overall Summary Strong Sell (8 Sell, 1 Buy, 1 Neutral from indicators). Moving Averages all 12 MAs (MA5 to MA200, simple and exponential) signal Sell; price below key levels like MA50 (~$81.34-$81.44). KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $80.85 (micro-support Elliott Wave context; potential for further tests lower), $78.03 (S1 Classic Pivot), $77.40 (S2 Classic Pivot), EMA50 ~$81-$84 range (recent sessions). KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $79.07 (R1 Classic Pivot), $82-$89 (mid-July trading range). ADDITIONAL CONTEXT: Oversold conditions and potential EMA support could lead to consolidation or relief bounces; bounce attempts amid pauses in strikes/news flow; defensive positioning near $82. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading near $2.66-$2.74/MMBtu (down ~3.7-3.9% intraday; 3-month low). CME NGU26 contract 2.739 (down 0.049 or -1.76%). Monthly decline exceeded 16%. Recent closes earlier in week ~$2.88-$2.92. KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $2.75-$2.77 (recently tested/breached), $2.50-$2.21 (lower historical zones), $2.66-$2.74 (current trading range 3-month low). KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $3.00 (psychological/technical level), $3.40+ (higher resistance). MARKET DRIVERS: Strong U.S. Lower 48 production (~110.6 bcfd); inventories ~6%+ above five-year average; LNG feedgas flows softening due to maintenance; downside pressure from oversupply. TECHNICAL SIGNALS: Rangebound or pressured lower short-term; prices remain under pressure from fundamentals. EIA WEEKLY NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT (WEEK ENDING JUL 17, 2026; RELEASED JUL 23): Total Lower 48 working gas 3,056 Bcf. Net change +32 Bcf injection (from 3,024 Bcf prior week). Year-over-year comparison 16 Bcf (-0.5%) below same week 2025 (3,072 Bcf). Five-year average comparison 183 Bcf (+6.4%) above 2021-2025 average of 2,873 Bcf. REGIONAL BREAKDOWN: East +17 Bcf to 631 Bcf (0.3% below year-ago; +2.4% vs. 5-year avg.). Midwest +17 Bcf to 766 Bcf (+3.0% vs. year-ago; +5.9% vs. 5-year avg.). South Central +2 Bcf to 1,105 Bcf (-4.7% vs. year-ago; +3.4% vs. 5-year avg.); salt caverns -7 Bcf, nonsalt +9 Bcf. Pacific -5 Bcf to 314 Bcf (+5.7% vs. year-ago; +18.9% vs. 5-year avg.). Mountain unchanged at 240 Bcf (+0.8% vs. year-ago; +19.4% vs. 5-year avg.). MARKET CONTEXT: +32 Bcf injection slightly below some consensus estimates (~34 Bcf) but within broader 29-37 Bcf range. Overall total storage remains within five-year historical range. THE READ: Crude WTI near $79.15, Strong Sell, RSI 40.129, MACD -0.57, all moving averages Sell, support $80.85/$78.03/$77.40, resistance $79.07/$82-$89, oversold conditions, potential for consolidation or relief bounces. Gas Henry Hub near $2.66-$2.74, down 3.7-3.9% intraday, 3-month low, support $2.75-$2.77/$2.50-$2.21, resistance $3.00/$3.40+, strong production, inventories elevated, LNG maintenance softening feedgas flows, downside pressure. Storage 3,056 Bcf, +32 Bcf injection, -0.5% year-ago, +6.4% five-year average, East +17 Bcf, Midwest +17 Bcf, South Central +2 Bcf, Pacific -5 Bcf, Mountain unchanged, total storage within five-year range. WEEK 30 TECHNICALS THESIS: Crude Strong Sell, RSI 40, MACD negative, all MAs Sell, support $80.85/$78.03, resistance $79.07, oversold, consolidation or relief bounce potential. Gas near 3-month low, support $2.75-$2.77, resistance $3.00, strong production, elevated inventories, LNG maintenance, downside pressure. Storage elevated, +32 Bcf injection, -0.5% year-ago, +6.4% five-year average, East and Midwest strong builds, Pacific drawdown. Trade the charts, respect the levels.

Friday, July 24, 2026. SENEGAL ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Senegal emerging as significant offshore oil and gas producer with Sangomar oil project and Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project. SANGOMAR OIL PROJECT: Operated by Woodside Energy; Senegal's first major offshore oil project (formerly SNE field); located ~100 km south of Dakar. First oil Jun 2024. H1 2026 PRODUCTION: 17.9M barrels. Monthly outputs ~2.8-3.1M barrels (e.g., 3.1M in Jan/Mar/May; 2.8M in Feb; 2.9M in Apr/Jun). Monthly avg ~3M barrels/month (aligns with prior year avg; 36.2M barrels total in 2025). CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION: Exceeded 50M barrels by Dec 2025. CAPACITY: Operating near/at nameplate capacity (~100,000 bbl/d) for sustained periods. CONTRIBUTION TO WOODSIDE: Part of Woodside's overall 2025 production of 198.8 MMboe. EXPANSION POTENTIAL: Woodside and Senegal's Petrosen discussing potential Phase 2 development that could add ~250M barrels of recoverable oil resources. NATURAL GAS: Sangomar remains primarily oil project; associated gas volumes noted but not yet primary output; natural gas production expected at later stage. GREATER TORTUE AHMEYIM LNG PROJECT: Separate natural gas development (joint Senegal/Mauritania project); has its own production ramp-up. BROADER CONTEXT: Senegal's offshore oil and gas era emerging as significant producer with Sangomar and GTA projects. THE READ: Sangomar oil 17.9M barrels H1 2026, monthly avg 3M barrels, operating at nameplate capacity 100K bbl/d, cumulative production exceeded 50M barrels, Phase 2 expansion potential 250M barrels. Natural gas Sangomar associated gas not yet primary output, GTA LNG project separate development, production ramp-up underway. SENEGAL ENERGY THESIS: Sangomar oil project ramping toward full capacity, Phase 2 expansion potential significant, associated gas production expected later, Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project separate development, Senegal emerging as significant offshore producer, long-term growth trajectory strong, near-term focus on Sangomar optimization and Phase 2 FID. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Thursday, July 23, 2026. GUATEMALA ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Guatemala has minimal domestic crude oil and natural gas production and is net energy importer. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Current production Mar 2026 5.10K bbl/d (down slightly from 5.20 in Feb 2026). 2024 baseline ~6,217 bbl/d (ranks ~#97 globally). Historical context long-term avg ~11.1K bbl/d (1984-2026); peak 27K bbl/d (2002); recent low 1.7K bbl/d (late 2023). PROVEN RESERVES: 88.3M barrels (2025; #73 globally); equivalent to ~1.9 years of domestic consumption at 2024 rates. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Annual production 3,276,000 cubic meters (2026 data); ranks #93 globally (very low volume). Role in power generation increasing due to availability, flexibility, lower emissions vs. coal/oil. OIL CONSUMPTION: 2024 consumption ~124,149 bbl/d (#70 globally). Daily deficit ~118K bbl/d (consumption far exceeds production). OVERALL SECTOR PROFILE: Net energy importer produces small fraction of needs, relies heavily on imports. No major new production surges reported for 2025-2026. Regional context broader LAC natural gas production showed growth in early 2026; Guatemala-specific contributions remain negligible. THE READ: Crude oil 5.1K bbl/d, down from 6.2K in 2024, proven reserves 88.3M barrels, 1.9 years of consumption, long-term decline from 27K peak in 2002. Natural gas 3.3M cubic meters annually, minimal production, growing role in power generation. Consumption 124K bbl/d, 118K bbl/d daily deficit, net importer. GUATEMALA ENERGY THESIS: Crude oil production minimal and declining, proven reserves limited, natural gas production negligible, oil consumption far exceeds production, net energy importer, no major new production projects reported, long-term structural energy deficit. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Wednesday, July 22, 2026. BRITISH COLUMBIA ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. BC is Canada's leading natural gas producer and minor crude oil producer; emerging as major LNG exporter. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: BC natural gas 2025 7.4 Bcf/d (up 4.8% YoY; largest provincial increase). BC's share Canadian gas production ~39-40% (2025). BC's share growth from ~13% in 2000 to 40% in 2025 (more than doubled since 2010). National marketable gas ~18.8 Bcf/d (2026). MONTNEY FORMATION: Accounts for ~87% of producing wells and 86.9% of 2021 production; ~87% of BC gas. STATISTICS CANADA (MARCH 2026): Marketable natural gas production rose 5.6% YoY nationally to 755.1M gigajoules; BC contributed largest increase (+13.8% YoY). BC GAS PRODUCTION GROWTH: Rose 28% in five years to ~2021; 136% since 2005. Recent growth >2.5 Bcf/d since 2018. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: BC crude oil minimal (~0.1-0.3M bbl/d range). National crude oil edged up 0.2% nationally (Statistics Canada March 2026). LNG EXPORTS: LNG Canada Phase 1 (Kitimat) 14 MTPA facility; first export cargo loaded Jun 30, 2025; Train 2 entered production Nov 2025; ramping toward full Phase 1 capacity (1.84 Bcf/d) into 2026. LNG CANADA PHASE 2: Joint venture participants approved funding in 2026 for potential FID by year-end; project would double capacity to 28 MTPA; designated "project of national interest". FEDERAL-PROVINCIAL ACCELERATION AGREEMENT (JUL 2026): Canada and BC signed Cooperative Prosperity Agreement to fast-track permitting/financing/construction of four priority LNG projects: LNG Canada Phase 2, Ksi Lisims LNG, Cedar LNG, Woodfibre LNG. WOODFIBRE LNG: Near Squamish; 2.1 MTPA project under construction; expected online 2027. CEDAR LNG: Kitimat; floating LNG facility (3 MTPA); positive FID 2024; early construction underway; targeted in-service late 2028. KSI LISIMS LNG: Proposed 1.6-1.8 Bcf/d project; FID expected early 2026; designated "project of national interest". TILBURY LNG: FortisBC facility exports small volumes; Phase 2 expansion (up to 2.5 MTPA) in planning/approvals; potential completion ~2028. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: LNG exports (led by LNG Canada) projected to boost BC GDP by ~$8B/year; natural gas royalties rising to $1.2B in 2026-27. GLOBAL LNG SUPPLY 2026: Forecast to rise ~7% (~40 bcm) with contributions from Canada (BC projects), U.S., Qatar; expected to ease market tightness/support Asian demand growth. MARKET POSITIONING: BC LNG targets Asian markets with West Coast delivery advantage; high costs (feed gas + pipeline tolls) make projects sensitive to prices below ~$7-9/MMBtu; oversupply risks noted for late 2020s. THE READ: Natural gas 7.4 Bcf/d, up 4.8% YoY, 40% of Canadian production, Montney driving growth, crude oil minimal. LNG exports LNG Canada Phase 1 ramping, Phase 2 FID targeted year-end, four priority projects accelerated via federal-provincial agreement, Woodfibre 2027, Cedar 2028, Ksi Lisims FID early 2026. Economic impact $8B/year GDP boost, $1.2B natural gas royalties 2026-27. BRITISH COLUMBIA ENERGY THESIS: Natural gas production leading Canadian growth, Montney Formation driving output, LNG Canada Phase 1 operational, Phase 2 expansion approved, four priority LNG projects accelerated, Asian market focus, high cost sensitivity, long-term oversupply risks, near-term growth trajectory strong. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, July 21, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $81.90-$82.20 (Sep 2026 contract). Recent momentum bullish; strong buy signals on moving averages. Price action tested/breached ~$79 level in mid-July. KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $83.26-$83.38 (Pivot Point 1st Resistance/R1 Classic/Fibonacci), $83.91-$84.60 (R2/1-month high area), $84.73-$85.08 (2nd Resistance/price 2 SD resistance), $87.40 (3rd Resistance Pivot), $88.51 (14-day RSI at 70%). KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $80.59-$80.78 (Pivot Point/S2-S3 area Classic/Fibonacci), $79.12 (1st Support Pivot), $76.45-$76.54 (2nd Support/9-day MA crossover area), $74.98 (3rd Support Pivot), $67.12 (13-week/1-month low longer-term). TECHNICAL INDICATORS (JUL 20): RSI(14) 51.712 (Neutral), MACD(12,26) 0.23 (Buy), Overall Technical Summary Strong Buy (11 buy signals from moving averages; 6 buy from indicators), Moving Averages Majority Buy (MA5, MA10, MA50, MA100, MA200 all Buy; one Sell on MA20 simple), Stochastic(9,6) 66.444 (Buy), ADX(14) 32.867 (Buy; indicates trend strength), Williams %R -42.577 (Buy). ADDITIONAL CONTEXT: TradingView/analyst ideas highlight zones near $76.50-$77.20 as notable supports; upside targets around $87.50+ in bullish scenarios; pivot points and moving averages (e.g., 40-day MA) provide dynamic levels. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading near $2.84-$2.86/MMBtu (front-month NGQ26 or similar). Recent spot ~$2.83/MMBtu. KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $2.80-$2.83 (immediate support; recent daily lows; key floor), $3.00 (psychological/technical support; widely referenced critical level; major floor with buyers active), $3.05-$3.14 (support cluster; pivot points and channel bottoms). KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $2.90-$2.91 (recent highs; short-term ceiling in intraday ranges), $3.13-$3.23 (nearby contract-specific pivots and prior reaction highs), $3.38-$3.40 (first notable upside barrier; crucial resistance), $3.47-$3.53 (Fibonacci resistance; 38.2% retracement and pivot points), $3.60-$3.65 (prior swing highs; 50% Fib retracements; proximity to longer-term moving averages), $3.62-$4.05 (200-day EMA zone and 50-day MA targets; potential upside magnets if momentum builds). TECHNICAL SIGNALS: Indicators showing "Strong Sell" bias recently; price consolidating near lower levels; potential for volatility around storage reports and weather. LONGER-TERM CONTEXT: 2026 EIA average projection near $3.60; front-month futures highly volatile. EIA WEEKLY NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT (WEEK ENDING JUL 10, 2026; RELEASED JUL 16): Working gas in storage 3,024 Bcf (Lower 48 states). Weekly change net injection of +41 Bcf (from 2,983 Bcf prior week). Year-over-year comparison 21 Bcf (0.7%) below same week 2025. Five-year average comparison 181 Bcf (6.4%) above five-year (2021-2025) average of 2,843 Bcf. Prior week (ending Jul 3; released Jul 9) 2,983 Bcf after +61 Bcf injection. MARKET CONTEXT: +41 Bcf print within typical consensus range (~38-45 Bcf); roughly in line with surveys; ended short streak of larger-than-expected builds. PRICE REACTION: NYMEX August contract traded near $2.85-$2.92/MMBtu in immediate aftermath; front month in lower range after breaking below $3.00. BROADER INVENTORY OUTLOOK (EIA STEO JUL 2026): Inventories remained above five-year average through much of forecast period due to record production; end-October 2026 working gas projected at ~3,966 Bcf (5% above average). FUNDAMENTALS: Production eased slightly; LNG feedgas flows impacted by maintenance (e.g., Freeport); weather supported power-sector demand. REPORT SCHEDULE: Weekly releases Thursdays 10:30 a.m. ET; next after Jul 16 would be Jul 23 (covering week ending Jul 17). THE READ: Crude WTI near $82, strong buy signals, resistance $83.26-$83.38/$84.73-$85.08/$87.40, support $80.59-$80.78/$79.12/$76.45-$76.54, bullish momentum intact. Gas Henry Hub near $2.84-$2.86, support $2.80-$2.83/$3.00, resistance $2.90-$2.91/$3.38-$3.40/$3.60-$3.65, strong sell bias, consolidating near lower levels. Storage 3,024 Bcf, +41 Bcf injection, 0.7% below year-ago, 6.4% above five-year average, inventories elevated, record production supporting builds. WEEK 29 TECHNICALS THESIS: Crude strong buy signals, resistance $83.26-$85.08, support $80.59-$76.45, bullish momentum, upside targets $87.50+. Gas support $2.80-$3.00, resistance $3.38-$4.05, strong sell bias, consolidating, volatility around storage and weather. Storage elevated inventories, record production, end-October projection 3,966 Bcf, 5% above average. Trade the charts, respect the levels.

Monday, July 20, 2026. WEEK 29 OPENS. Twenty-nine weeks running. The decoupling thesis continues to deliver. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI crude oil surging. Front-month futures Aug 2026 CLQ6 ~$82.47 (up $3.52 or +4.46%). Sep 2026 CLU6 ~$81.77-$83.42 (up ~$3.50 or +4.46% range). Recent session gains ~$81.78 (up $3.50 or +4.47%) on Jul 17; extended to ~$82.49-$84.21 by Jul 19. Intraday/recent trading range highs near $85.39, lows ~$83.61; prices $84.20-$84.64 in late Jul 19 updates (+~2%). Weekly performance notable gains; strongest weekly advance in months; prices back above $80. PRIMARY DRIVER: Escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities; attacks impacting tanker traffic in Strait of Hormuz; supply disruption fears. MARKET CONTEXT: Oil prices rose on renewed geopolitical risk premium; Brent also seeing strength (levels above $90). STRAIT OF HORMUZ STATUS: Normal capacity ~20M bbl/d (~20% of global seaborne crude/condensate trade; ~25% of world seaborne oil trade). RECENT DISRUPTIONS: Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities in July slowed shipments again after partial post-ceasefire recovery. Traffic levels only 11 vessels transited Jul 12 (lowest since mid-June); traffic "throttled" or at a "crawl". IRAN'S POSITION: Declared strait an "unbreakable red line"; warned against U.S. interference; threatened "long and painful strikes" or destruction of regional infrastructure if attacks resume. SHIPPING RESPONSES: Major operators (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd) and oil majors suspended/halted transits earlier; some activity restarted post-June MOU/ceasefire but faces renewed caution. PARTIAL RECOVERY POST-JUNE: U.S.-Iran MOU/ceasefire around mid-June enabled some resumption (e.g., Saudi shipments ~34M barrels since Jun 17); flows remain well below pre-crisis levels. IMPACT ON GULF CRUDE EXPORTS: Exports jumped in July amid efforts to clear inventories; shipments slowed due to renewed hostilities; risk premiums on Gulf grades risen. HISTORICAL CONTEXT: Pre-crisis (1H 2025) averages ~20.9M bbl/d total oil flows; crude/condensate ~14.7M bbl/d. 2026 crisis caused largest oil market disruption in history; traffic dropped >90% at peaks. GEOPOLITICAL RISK OUTLOOK: Shipping risk downgraded from "extreme" to "severe" post-June MOU; remains uncertain with potential for sporadic incidents; Iran retains capabilities to disrupt via asymmetric means. OPEC+ PRODUCTION/DEMAND: OPEC+ crude oil production Jun 2026 36.28M bbl/d (up ~3M bbl/d from May levels) as Gulf producers resumed output halted by Hormuz closure following U.S.-Iran interim agreement. 2026 GLOBAL OIL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST: Lowered to 780,000 b/d (third consecutive downward revision; down 190,000 b/d from prior estimate) reflecting Iran war impact. 2027 OIL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST: Raised to 1.94M bbl/d (up 210,000 b/d from previous outlook) citing potential stabilization. GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY 2026: Projected to have declined significantly due to Middle East disruptions (IEA estimates ~3.9M bbl/d drop to ~102M bbl/d range); partial offsets from non-OPEC+ gains/Atlantic Basin exports. NON-DOC LIQUIDS SUPPLY GROWTH 2026: ~1.1M bbl/d driven mainly by U.S., Brazil, Canada. DOC CRUDE DEMAND 2026: Expected to reach ~42.7M bbl/d (up ~0.2M bbl/d from 2025). OPEC+ OUTPUT MONITORING: Significant month-on-month gains in June tied to Hormuz recovery; full normalization faces operational/political hurdles (e.g., demining). BROADER CONTEXT: Reduced geopolitical tensions potentially supporting economic growth/oil demand in H2 2026; OPEC viewing smaller consumption impact than some other forecasters (e.g., IEA). NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Henry Hub spot prices recent closes hovering near $2.90/MMBtu. EIA monthly averages 2026 Jan $7.72, Feb $3.62, Mar $3.04, Apr $2.77, May $2.94, Jun $3.15. Jul data pending; next release ~Jul 22. CME Henry Hub futures NGQ26 prompt ~$2.888 (as of Jul 19; down ~0.8%). RECENT DAILY SPOT PRICES: Jul 13 $2.83, Jul 10 $2.73, Jul 9 $3.17, Jul 8 $3.13, Jul 7 $3.13. Markets Insider daily closes Jul 2026 Jul 17 close ~$2.92 (high $2.93, low $2.84), Jul 16 close ~$2.89, Jul 15 close ~$2.92, earlier days $2.85-$2.95 range. CONTEXT: Spot prices published with short lag (typically few days); Jul 20 values not yet available; futures/recent closes hovered near $2.90/MMBtu. THE READ: Crude WTI surging to $82-$84 on Strait of Hormuz disruption fears, geopolitical risk premium elevated, OPEC+ production recovering but demand growth forecast lowered. Support $80, resistance $85-$86. Gas Henry Hub near $2.90, spot prices lagging futures, contango structure intact, accumulation zone holding. WEEK 29 THESIS: Crude geopolitical premium driving rally, Strait of Hormuz remains critical flashpoint, OPEC+ recovering but demand growth slowing. Support $80, resistance $85-$86. Gas spot near $2.90, futures contango intact, accumulation zone holding, target $3.50 for year. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Friday, July 17, 2026. UZBEKISTAN ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Uzbekistan is major natural gas producer and declining crude oil producer. Shifted from net exporter to increasingly import-dependent. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Q1 2026 9.6 bcm (15% drop from 11.3 bcm Q1 2025). First five months 2026 15.8 bcm (down from 18.4 bcm same period 2025; ~14% decline or ~2.6 bcm drop). January 2026 3.7 bcm (down 7.5% YoY). 2026 FULL-YEAR TARGET: 40.2 bcm (planned). 2025 FULL-YEAR MARKETED PRODUCTION: 40.4 bcm (OPEC data). EXPORT REVENUES/IMPORT SPENDING: Export revenues Q1 2026 $36.7M (down sharply from $94.3M Q1 2025). Import spending Q1 2026 $360.5M on natural gas imports (up 2.2x YoY). RUSSIAN PIPELINE GAS SUPPLIES: Expected to rise to just over 10 bcm in 2026 (from 7 bcm in 2025; >40% increase) routed via Kazakhstan through Central Asia-Center system. GLOBAL RANKING: ~17th in natural gas production (mid-40s bcm range annually). TREND: Shifted from long-time net exporter, relying increasingly on imports due to aging fields, rising domestic demand, declining output. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Current 29,000 bbl/d (March 2026; unchanged from prior months). Record low 29,000 bbl/d reached Aug 2025. Long-term avg since 1993 ~65,000 bbl/d. 2024 PRODUCTION: 46,122 bbl/d. Q1 2026 OUTPUT (TONS): 157,300 tons (down from 160,800 tons Q1 2025). January 2026 54,100 tons (1.8% decline YoY). PROVEN RESERVES: 594M barrels (2025); ranks #46 globally; ~0.034% of world reserves. NEW EXPLORATION POTENTIAL: Ustyurt region estimated 100M tons of oil + 35 bcm of gas; projects targeting up to 1M tons bitumen oil production by 2025, larger long-term output. PRODUCTION CONCENTRATION: Bukhara-Khiva ~70% of output historically. NEW PARTNERSHIPS: New production sharing agreements/seismic work (e.g., with BP/SOCAR in 2026) aim to boost future output; near-term figures show continued decline. PRODUCTION TREND: Trended downward from peaks in late 1990s. THE READ: Natural gas 9.6 bcm Q1 2026, down 15% YoY, export revenues collapsed, import spending up 2.2x, Russian imports surging, structural shift from exporter to importer. Crude oil 29,000 bbl/d record low, down from 65,000 avg since 1993, proven reserves 594M barrels, new exploration potential in Ustyurt, near-term decline trend. UZBEKISTAN ENERGY THESIS: Natural gas production declining sharply, export revenues collapsing, import dependency rising, Russian pipeline gas surging, crude oil at record lows, structural shift from exporter to importer, new exploration potential offers long-term upside but near-term headwinds persist. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Thursday, July 16, 2026. MEXICO ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Mexico is a major crude oil producer and net natural gas importer. Energy sector dominated by Pemex (state-owned petroleum company). CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Q1 2026 1.652M bpd (up 38k from Q1 2025). March 2026 1.745M bbl/d (up from 1.736M Feb 2026). 2026 government target 1.8M bpd (facing significant challenges/potential delays). Finance ministry forecast ~1.78M bpd in 2026. 2025 avg ~1.6M bpd. Mid-2025 Aug ~1.64M bpd. KEY CRUDE OIL FIELDS: Maloob, Ixachi, Zaap, Ayatsil, Quesqui. S&P GLOBAL ASSESSMENT: Questions feasibility of 1.8M bpd target; cites ongoing operational issues/need for continued government support. 2026 INVESTMENT PLAN: ~425B pesos (~$21B; 34% increase) to Pemex targeting 1.8M bpd crude/4.5 Bcf/d natural gas through 2030. REFINING: Crude refining rose 22.2% YoY in Q1 2026 to 1.141M bpd. BROADER CONTEXT: Long-term decline from historical peaks; efforts focused on new fields, mixed contracts, attracting private investment. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Q1 2026 wet/hydrocarbon gas 3.925 Bcf/d (up 12% or +423 MMcf/d YoY). Dry gas ~2.3 Bcf/d (recently; projected to stay near 2.299-2.302 Bcf/d in 2025-2026). Q2 2025 3.592 Bcf/d (down ~139 MMcf/d YoY); dry gas from plants 1.615 Bcf/d (down 12% YoY). 2025 FULL-YEAR OUTPUT: ~3.67 Bcf/d total; dry gas ~1.7 Bcf/d. DOMESTIC DEMAND/IMPORT RELIANCE: Domestic demand ~9 Bcf/d (or higher). Domestic production share only ~25%; ~75% imported (mainly via U.S. pipelines). U.S. EXPORT FORECASTS TO MEXICO: ~6.83 Bcf/d in 2025 (up from 6.46 Bcf/d in 2024); continued strength/records expected into 2026 due to Pemex output constraints. HISTORICAL CONTEXT: Pemex dry gas production declined from ~5 Bcf/d in 2010 to ~2.3 Bcf/d recently. LONGER-TERM TARGETS: >4 Bcf/d by 2030 (potentially up to 8.6 Bcf/d with unconventional development). KEY NATURAL GAS FIELDS: Bakté, Ixachi. EXPORT POSITION: Mexico net importer; minimal natural gas exports. THE READ: Crude 1.65-1.75M bpd, 1.8 target at risk, refining up 22%, investment plan in place, long-term decline trend. Gas 3.9 Bcf/d wet, 2.3 dry, 75% imported from U.S., Pemex output constraints driving record U.S. exports to Mexico. MEXICO ENERGY THESIS: Crude production stable but below target, refining gains supporting domestic supply, natural gas heavily import-dependent, U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico at record levels, long-term structural challenge for Pemex. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Wednesday, July 15, 2026. EIA PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT RELEASED. Jul 15, 2026, 10:30 a.m. ET. Covering week ending ~Jul 10, 2026. CRUDE OIL INVENTORY DATA: Prior week (ending Jul 3, released Jul 8): U.S. crude oil inventories 411.4M barrels (+3.0M week-over-week; first build after 10 consecutive weeks of declines). Level ~6% below 5-year average for this time of year. REFINERY METRICS: Crude oil refinery inputs 17.0M b/d (down 173k b/d from prior week). Refinery operable capacity utilization 95.8%. Gasoline production 9.7M b/d (decreased from prior week). Distillate fuel production 5.2M b/d (decreased from prior week). IMPORTS/PRODUCTS: Crude oil imports 5.6M b/d (up 351k b/d from prior week); 4-week avg ~5.4M b/d (down 11.4% YoY). Motor gasoline inventories decreased 1.9M barrels week-over-week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased 5.0M barrels week-over-week (~12% below 5-year average). Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased 4.0M barrels week-over-week. DEMAND METRICS: Total products supplied (4-week avg) 20.6M b/d (+0.3% YoY). 4-week motor gasoline supplied 9.0M b/d (down 2.2% YoY). BROADER CONTEXT: Global/OECD inventory draws due to geopolitical factors (Middle East supply disruptions). OECD stocks heading toward multi-decade lows. Global inventories forecast to shift toward builds later 2026. PRICE FORECASTS: EIA forecasts Brent ~$74/bbl in 3Q26, ~$65/bbl in 2027 amid easing inventory pressure/rising supply. IEA OIL MARKET REPORT (Jul 2026): Refined product cracks/margins at 4-year highs in early Jul as crude supplies rose/prices fell. Global observed inventories rose in Jun for first time in months. NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (most recent; week ending Jul 3, released Jul 9). Storage level working gas 2,983 Bcf as of Jul 3, 2026. Weekly change net injection +61 Bcf (above consensus ~58-60 Bcf; above 5-year avg ~51-54 Bcf). Year-over-year 15 Bcf below same week last year. 5-year avg 185 Bcf (~7%) above 5-year average 2,798 Bcf. MARKET CONTEXT: Build occurred amid peak summer cooling demand/record heat. Production strong. LNG feedgas near 19 Bcf/d. PRICE IMPACT: Larger-than-expected injection viewed as bearish. Contributed to declines in natural gas futures. Aug contract dropped notably post-report. REGIONAL NOTE: Midwest saw highest net injections (~23 Bcf) in reported week. HENRY HUB FUTURES/SPOT: Henry Hub futures mid-Jul 2026 trading ~$2.89-$2.90/MMBtu (~2.898 recent data). Henry Hub spot Jun 2026 monthly avg ~$3.14/MMBtu. Broader 2026 avg projected near $3.60/MMBtu in EIA outlooks. OUTLOOK: High inventories expected to limit upward price pressure through 2026. Henry Hub spot forecast to avg just under $3.50/MMBtu for year in some EIA projections. Next release Jul 16, 2026 (Thursday, 10:30 a.m. ET). THE READ: Crude first build after 10 weeks of declines, inventories 6% below 5-year average, refinery runs down, demand flat, geopolitical premium fading. Support $75, resistance $82. Gas larger-than-expected injection bearish for near-term, high inventories limiting upside, target $3.50 for year. WEEK 28 MIDWEEK THESIS: Crude inventory build signals easing supply stress, geopolitical premium fading. Support $75, resistance $82. Gas storage build bearish, high inventories limiting upside, target $3.50 for year. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, July 14, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS. WTI crude oil trading ~$79.40-$80.05. Sharp recent rally. Price surged 10%+ in week leading into Jul 14 driven by geopolitical developments (US measures affecting Iranian oil transit through Strait of Hormuz). TECHNICAL SIGNALS: Strong Buy based on technical indicators/moving averages. RSI(14) ~80.7-82.0 (Overbought territory; potential caution for pullbacks/consolidation). MACD(12,26) ~1.72-1.73 (Buy signal; bullish momentum). Overall technical summary Strong Buy (8-12 buy signals across indicators, 0 sell). PIVOT POINTS: Classic pivot ~79.51. Supports 79.12/78.69/78.3. Resistances 79.94/80.33/80.76. BOLLINGER BANDS: Limited specific Jul 2026 data. Prices consolidating near middle band after decline, suggesting waning bearish momentum. No strong upper band touch/squeeze noted in latest analysis. SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS: Support zones around 73-74, 70-71. Lower Fibonacci retracements ~68-70 area. Resistance near-term around 80-82. Longer-term Fibonacci extensions higher. CONTEXT: Earlier Jul RSI was oversold (~29) with bearish MACD bias. Prices hovered mid-$68s before recent rally. MOMENTUM: Strong recent momentum (+2%+ daily moves) aligns with bullish MACD/RSI overbought conditions. Watch for potential reversal if RSI fails to sustain or price rejects upper levels. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub futures ~$2.89/MMBtu (down 0.19% from prior day; down 1.63% or -1.70% in some reports). CME FUTURES: NGQ26 last at $2.902 (-1.29%) as of Jul 13 close. Investing.com futures $2.891 (-1.70%), previous close $2.896. RECENT PRICE ACTION: Jul 10 close $3.02. Jul 9 $3.22. Intraday ranges recently around $2.87-$3.02. SPOT VERSUS FUTURES: EIA spot Jul 6 $3.29 (down from $3.34 prior; weekly/daily updates lag). Spot prices lagging at higher levels (~$3.29 early Jul). Futures trading near $2.89-$2.90. THE SETUP: Crude overbought, RSI 80+, watch for pullback. Support 78.3-79.12, resistance 80.33-80.76. Gas futures down, spot holding higher, contango structure intact. WEEK 28 TECHNICALS: Crude Strong Buy but overbought, caution for pullbacks. Support 78.3, resistance 80.76. Gas futures down, spot holding, accumulation zone intact. Trade the charts, respect the levels.

Monday, July 13, 2026. WEEK 28 OPENS. WTI crude oil trading ~$74.42 (open $73.79, high $74.64, low $73.72, +0.87%). Sharp rebound from prior session. CME live quote late Jul 12 showed $74.36 (+4.13% or +$2.95 on day). CRUDE OIL SETUP: Prices risen from lows near $68-$71 earlier in July. Upward momentum into mid-month (fluctuated $68.55 Jul 6 to $73.52 Jul 8). Well below 2025-early 2026 highs (over $100 in some periods). KEY LEVELS: Resistance $74 (potential decision point for bullish moves above or bearish below ~$70). Support $70, resistance $75-$76. TECHNICAL SETUP: Crude consolidating mid-$70s range. Doha talks progress supporting sentiment. Watch for Strait of Hormuz developments. Geopolitical premium intact but fading. NATURAL GAS: Most recent spot Jul 6 $3.29/MMBtu (down from $3.34 prior day). Futures Jul 12 ~$2.915/MMBtu (-0.025 or -0.85%). Jul 10 futures close ~$2.95 (or $2.94 in some reports). Earlier July spot hovered $3.21-$3.34. DOHA TALKS UPDATE: Indirect US-Iran technical talks in Doha concluded ~Jul 1-2, 2026. Focus on Strait of Hormuz/related issues under earlier interim MOU. FORMAT: Indirect/technical talks (not direct bilateral meetings in all accounts). US envoys Steve Witkoff/Jared Kushner meeting Qatari officials (Emir/Prime Minister) alongside Iranian technical delegations via mediators. Qatar/Pakistan facilitated. PRIMARY TOPICS: Maritime traffic/shipping resumption through Strait of Hormuz (critical chokepoint handling ~20% global oil trade). Unfreezing Iranian assets/funds (~$6B references). Implementation of prior MOU/ceasefire. OTHER TOPICS: Nuclear issues, Lebanon ceasefire, broader peace discussed but limited headway. OUTCOMES: "Positive progress" or "building on" Jun interim MOU that halted fighting. Both sides agreed continue talks. No breakthrough on lasting peace deal or full nuclear agreement. VP Vance described talks as "going well" and "still pretty early." CONTEXT: Followed tit-for-tat US-Iran strikes over Hormuz shipping disputes earlier 2026. Initial interim deal mid-Jun 2026 halted attacks, reopened strait to pre-war shipping levels, extended ceasefire (~60 days in some reports), paved way for further nuclear talks. Iran faced accusations of attacks/toll proposals; US pushed against fees/tolls in favor of broader economic incentives. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: Talks occurred ahead of/around funeral for Iran's former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (killed in earlier strikes). Some reports noted pauses/questions about resumption post-funeral (around Jul 11) amid mentions of additional US strikes. STATUS: As of early Jul, existing Hormuz-related agreements remained in place despite stalled broader negotiations. THE READ: Crude consolidating mid-$70s, Doha talks progress supporting sentiment, geopolitical premium intact but fading. Support $70, resistance $75-$76. Gas $3.29 spot, $2.915 futures, accumulation zone intact. WEEK 28 THESIS: Crude Doha talks progress positive, Hormuz risk declining, geopolitical premium fading. Support $70, resistance $75-$76. Gas accumulation zone intact, target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Wednesday, January 8, 2026. WEEK 2 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil settled at $57.76, up $1.77 or 3.2%. Sharp rebound after two consecutive days of declines. Two-week high. Brent up 3.4% to $61.99. KEY DRIVERS: US actions on Venezuela's oil sector following reported capture of former leader Nicolas Maduro. Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced US oversight of Venezuelan crude sales. Intensified sanctions including seizure of Venezuela-linked oil tankers (one reportedly under Russian flag). Geopolitical tensions/supply concerns involving Russia, Iraq, Iran. President Donald Trump warning to Iran regarding protests/potential crackdowns. Broader reassessment of geopolitical shifts in Americas/Middle East. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot price ~$2.92/MMBtu Jan 8, 2026. Low $3 range or below around that time (below $3 Jan 9). Note will spike sharply later month due to Arctic blast (all-time highs near $28-$30/MMBtu around Jan 23-26). IRAN/STRAIT OF HORMUZ: Strait remains open with normal shipping traffic but geopolitical tensions rising sharply. Internal Iranian unrest, US warnings of potential military intervention. Market concerns over possible future disruptions to crude oil flows (normally ~20-25% global seaborne oil trade). PRE-CONFLICT BUILDUP: Iranian protests erupted late Dec 2025, intensified Jan 2026 after brutal crackdown. US threatened intervention, raising fears escalation could prompt Iran to threaten/close Strait. MARKET WARNINGS: Jan 12, 2026 report highlighted Strait returning to focus amid possible US action against Iran. Experts cautioning confrontation could lead Tehran to disrupt chokepoint. OIL PRICE OUTLOOK: BloombergNEF analysis projected Brent averaging $55/bbl for 2026 (assuming no major Iran-related disruptions) but noted risks of prices reaching $91/bbl in disruption scenario. POLYMARKET BETTING: Contracts on whether Iran would close/restrict Strait by Jan 31, 2026 resolved to No (reflecting no closure occurred in month despite tensions). BROADER FLOWS: EIA data showed Strait of Hormuz crude/condensate flows averaging ~20-21M bpd in prior periods; no Jan 2026 specific drop reported. THE SETUP: Crude Venezuela focus, Iran tensions rising, geopolitical premium building. Support $55, resistance $60. Gas $2.92/MMBtu, Arctic blast coming late month, expect volatility. WEEK 2 THESIS: Crude geopolitical premium building, Venezuela sanctions, Iran tensions. Watch for Strait escalation risk. Support $55, resistance $60. Gas expect volatility, Arctic blast late month, heating demand coming. Trade the data, not the headlines. TEAM NOTE: Energy Markets Daily team taking break this week and next. Usual daily cadence will return soon. Thank you for attention and support.

Friday, July 3, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: ECUADOR. CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS: Ecuador's crude oil production averaged ~461,000-466,000 bbl/d Jan-Feb 2026. Daily lifts reported ~452,817-458,207 bbl/d late Feb/early Mar. RECENT OUTPUT DECLINE: National production fell 1.5% YoY Jan-May 2026 period, continuing broader downward trend from 2025 lows (reported ranges ~349,000-465,000 bbl/d). INCREMENTAL GAINS H1 2026: Government and Petroecuador efforts added 35,000+ bbl/d incremental crude production H1 2026. Major contributions from fields Sacha (~10,510 bbl/d), Auca, Lago Agrio, others. EXPORT VOLUMES: Crude oil exports 337,333 bbl/d Dec 2025 (down from 356,000 in 2024). Earlier periods showed exports representing large share production (historically ~67% net). EXPORT VALUE/SHARE: Mineral fuels/oil ~20.9% total exports by value recent data (down ~19% YoY). Though crude/related products historically comprised ~36% Ecuador's exports. CHALLENGES/INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES: Production declines stem from aging/coroded infrastructure, frequent pipeline disruptions, underinvestment, policy factors. 2025 output described as 2-decade low in some reports. GOVERNMENT RECOVERY EFFORTS: Noboa administration pursued drilling rigs, field optimizations, multi-year investment plan. Targeting peaks above 600,000 bbl/d longer-term. Nearer-term goals >477,000 bbl/d possible by mid-2026 (including private operators). TRADING ECONOMICS FORECAST: Production expected ~445,000 bbl/d by end Q2 2026. Trending toward ~490,000 bbl/d 2027, ~530,000 bbl/d 2028 per econometric models. MARKET/EXPORT RISKS: Competition from rising Venezuelan heavy crude output could pressure demand/prices Ecuador's key export grades (e.g., Napo). Spot market sales emphasized in prior strategies. BROADER ENERGY/EXPORT CONTEXT: Oil remains core export/fiscal contributor. Non-oil exports (shrimp/fish) grown in importance. IEA notes historical net crude export trends/energy shares. BOTTOM LINE: Ecuador mid-sized crude producer facing infrastructure challenges/policy headwinds. Recent government efforts show incremental gains, recovery trajectory positive but gradual. Export competition from Venezuela and regional dynamics remain key risks.

Thursday, July 2, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: BELARUS. PRODUCTION OVERVIEW: Belarus produced ~25,000 bbl/d early 2026 (well below historical avg 33,650 bbl/d since 1993). Production reached 30-year high 2.013M metric tons 2025. Belorusneft targets 2.1M tons 2026, 2.3M tons by 2030 (supported by intensified drilling 100 wells planned, enhanced recovery technologies). RESERVES: 198M barrels as of 2025 (ranking ~57th globally; ~0.011% world total). HEAVY RELIANCE ON RUSSIA: Russia sole supplier crude oil/natural gas. Imports at preferential/political prices (gas ~$130/1000 m³ since 2018; oil linked to Urals with discounts). Provided Belarus substantial economic benefits (~$5.5B extra from 2022-2025 oil discounts). REFINING/PRODUCT EXPORTS: Belarus refines Russian crude, exports petroleum products. Growth expected in product transportation volumes. Some flows via Russian infrastructure (Ust-Luga port). GAS SUPPLY UNCERTAINTY: Late 2025/early 2026 Belarus lacked publicly confirmed long-term gas contract with Russia despite Lukashenko's statements. Negotiations continued over pricing/terms. EU SANCTIONS IMPACT: Extensive EU sanctions target Belarus's energy, trade, financial sectors (bans imports certain mineral products, exports luxury goods). Contributing to sharp drop EU trade, forcing pivot to Russian/Asian markets. 2026 SANCTIONS PACKAGES: EU's 20th sanctions package Apr 2026 added parallel measures against Belarus alongside Russia-focused actions (targeting military-industrial complex, energy sector circumvention, crypto services, more). GEOPOLITICAL ALIGNMENT: Sanctions and Russia-Ukraine war accelerated Belarus's economic, military, political integration with Russia (Russian military presence, nuclear weapons deployment). Fostering ties with China (SCO membership, BRICS partner status). GLOBAL RANKING: Belarus ranks ~70th world oil production (~27,846 bbl/d 2024 data). Focuses domestic needs plus limited product exports, not significant crude exports. BOTTOM LINE: Belarus minor oil producer deeply integrated with Russia for energy supplies, refining, exports. Amid ongoing EU/US sanctions and geopolitical alignment with Moscow. Limited upstream autonomy, strategic dependence on Russia. Western sanctions pressure continues.

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE: Latest reported week ending Jun 19, 2026 crude fell 6.088M barrels to 412.1M barrels (7% below 5-year avg). Cushing, Oklahoma stocks down over 1M barrels in latest week. BROADER CONTEXT: OECD stocks heading toward multi-decade lows driven by Iran-related conflict and Strait of Hormuz issues. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Jun 2026 forecasts 6.3M bpd global inventory declines in Q2 2026. Brent prices expected ~$105/bbl Jun/Jul before potential easing later in year. REFINERY ACTIVITY: Runs and utilization high to offset supply gaps, contributing to inventory draws. GASOLINE AND DISTILLATE STOCKS: Gasoline +2.064M barrels, distillates +3.064M barrels (contrasting crude draw; refineries running hard to produce products). NATURAL GAS: No EIA storage report today (releases occur Thursdays 10:30 a.m. ET). Next release Jul 2, 2026 (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). Latest storage data week ending Jun 19, 2026: Working gas in storage 2,835 Bcf. Net injection +76 Bcf from prior week. Year-over-year 49 Bcf below same week 2025. Five-year average 152 Bcf above average. THE SETUP: Crude inventories falling, multi-decade lows, support for higher prices, but WTI trading $70, consolidation continues. Support $67.93, resistance $71.84. Watch for EIA data surprises. Doha talks ongoing. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation zone intact. WEEK 27 THESIS: Crude fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered, geopolitical premium fading but Hormuz risk remains. Short any bounces above $72. Target $65-$67. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation intact. Target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Immediate daily pivot support cluster ~$69.88-$70.17 (supports just below current price). Nearby resistances ~$70.46-$70.58. Near-term support ~$67-$68 (recent lows, swing references). 200-day moving average support ~$66.14 (major longer-term support). Deeper support ~$60-$65 (psychological round number, prior zones; $65 potential downside objective). Immediate resistance ~$71-$73 (recent highs, swing points, pivot resistances). Former support now resistance ~$74-$76 (key zone from prior price action). Next resistance ~$80 (notable upside target/barrier). 50-day moving average resistance ~$89 (longer-term moving average overhead resistance). SETUP: Crude in consolidation. Support at $67.93. Resistance at $71.84. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. Watch Doha talks. Hormuz escalation risk remains. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading ~$3.17-$3.19. Intraday range ~$3.170-$3.313. INDICATORS: RSI(14) 32.85-34.09 (Sell signal, neutral-to-oversold, weakening momentum, potential further downside/consolidation). MACD(12,26) -0.027 to -0.031 (Sell signal, negative, confirming bearish momentum). Overall technical Strong Sell (moving averages Sell, technical indicators Strong Sell). PIVOT POINTS: S3 ~3.164, S2 ~3.171, S1 ~3.179, Pivot ~3.186, R1 ~3.194, R2 ~3.201, R3 ~3.209. MOVING AVERAGES: Price trading below most SMAs/EMAs. MA5 ~3.186-$3.194 range mixed signals. MA10/20/50/100/200 mostly Sell. OTHER INDICATORS: STOCH(9,6) ~12.8 (Oversold). Williams %R ~-87 (Oversold). CCI(14) ~-100 (Sell). ADX(14) ~25 (Sell/trending). 52-WEEK RANGE: ~2.48-$7.83. SUPPORT/RESISTANCE: Support near 2.9-$3.0. Resistance around 3.1-$3.3. DOHA TALKS UPDATE: Trump announced Iran requested meeting, taking place today Doha. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner flying to Doha for high-level meetings this week. Iran denies direct talks (Iranian officials state delegation heading to Doha but NOT for direct US meetings). Focus implementing MOU via Qatari mediators. Stand-down agreement both sides agreed halt attacks "for now," allow vessels move freely Strait of Hormuz, continue technical talks MOU. Context tit-for-tat strikes weekend linked Strait of Hormuz disputes, strains interim deal. MOU focus resolve shipping safety, cease-fire implementation, Iran's role/management claims over strait. Qatari role acting mediator/host. Iranian position describes situation "sensitive and complex," continues asserting influence Hormuz management. THE READ: Crude consolidating $70, support $67.93, resistance $71.84. Watch Doha talks. Hormuz risk remains. Gas oversold (RSI 32, MACD negative), support near $3.0, resistance $3.1-$3.3. Accumulation zone intact but momentum weak. Doha talks critical. If successful crude could fade $65-$67. If escalation resumes crude could spike $75-$80. Trade the technicals. Respect the levels.

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday close). CRUDE OIL SETUP: Support at $67.93. Resistance at $71.84. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. Crude broken below $70 last week. This week watch for Hormuz escalation risk. Talks resume Doha Jun 30. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub at ~$3.28/MMBtu (down ~0.49%). Jun 22 EIA spot $3.16/MMBtu. CME Henry Hub futures $3.28-$3.31 range. EIA projections averages ~$3.34-$3.60/MMBtu for 2026 periods. Storage building. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. US-IRAN NEGOTIATIONS: Mid-June MOU signed ~Jun 17. Formal signing ~Jun 19 Geneva, Switzerland. 60-day negotiation window for nuclear issues, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access. Late Jun Switzerland talks ~Jun 19-21 Bürgenstock, Switzerland (near Geneva, Lucerne). Described positive and constructive. Progress high-level oversight committee, Hormuz communications line, IAEA inspectors' access discussed. Some follow-ups called off amid regional flare-ups (Lebanon, Hezbollah). JUNE 29 UPDATES: US and Iran agreed to halt attacks. Plans for renewed talks Doha, Qatar, Jun 30. Focus Strait and broader MOU implementation. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Fragile recovery post-MOU. Traffic picking up modestly (some LNG and VLCC movements). Well below pre-conflict norms (~138 vessels/day pre-war vs single digits-low tens recently). Hampered by risks, insurance, recent incidents. Post-MOU efforts UN maritime agency coordination, freeing trapped ships, safer routes near Oman. Recent escalation (late Jun 2026) attacks on commercial vessels/cargo ships. US retaliatory strikes on Iran. Iran signaling intent to resume transit fees after 60-day suspension. Iran asserts control over waterway. Ongoing mine risks, blockades, incidents suppressing traffic. Some Iranian oil exports resuming in limited volumes. SETUP: Crude support at $67.93, resistance at $71.84. Watch Doha talks Jun 30. Hormuz escalation risk remains. Gas $3.28/MMBtu. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. WEEK 27 THESIS: Crude fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered, geopolitical premium fading but Hormuz risk remains. Short any bounces above $72. Target $65-$67. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation intact. Target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday technicals showed broad range $73-$78 zone, short bias below $73.91. Wednesday EIA inventory report crude fell 8.3M barrels week ending Jun 12 (10th consecutive draw, multi-decade lows). Thursday crude broke $70 (fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered). Friday closed $70.54. WEEKLY SUMMARY: Week-start $74.82, week-end $70.54, weekly change -$4.28 (-5.72%). Weekly high $78.96 (Mon), weekly low $68.91 (Thu). Largest daily drop -3.92% Wed (close $70.34). Daily closes Mon $74.82, Tue $73.21, Wed $70.34, Thu $71.52, Fri $70.54. Pattern seventh lower low in recent sessions. Key drivers easing supply disruption fears from Strait of Hormuz reopening, EIA revised 2026 global demand forecast lower (-1.1M bpd). Context well below 2026 peaks above $100/bbl earlier in year. NATURAL GAS RECAP: EIA Weekly Storage Report released Jun 25 for week ending Jun 19: Working gas 2,835 Bcf. Net change +76 Bcf injection. Year-ago 49 Bcf below. 5-year average 152 Bcf above. HENRY HUB SPOT PRICES: Jun 5 $3.03/MMBtu, Jun 12 $3.16/MMBtu, Jun 19 $3.12/MMBtu, Jun 22 $3.16/MMBtu. HENRY HUB FUTURES: August contract ~$3.282-$3.288. Nearby contracts low-to-mid $3.10s-$3.20s range. Some daily closes $3.15-$3.23. EIA PROJECTIONS: Henry Hub averages ~$3.30-$4.00/MMBtu for parts of 2026. WEEK 26 SUMMARY: Deal live. Hormuz shipping normalizing. Crude fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered, broke $70, support at $67.93. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation intact, $3.05-$3.15 prime entry, target $4.00+. Geopolitical premium gone. WEEK 27 PREVIEW: Watch further Hormuz normalization. Technical talks resume Geneva. Crude support at $67.93. Gas accumulation continues. BOTTOM LINE: Twenty-six weeks. Every thesis confirmed. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% past month, still up ~6% YTD. PRIMARY DRIVER: Easing supply concerns as Strait of Hormuz shipping returns to normal, increasing crude flows, pressuring prices lower. Brent crude low-to-mid $72s (multi-month lows). Near-term levels four-to-five month lows, continued downward pressure. VOLATILITY NOTE: Significant retreat from 2026 highs tied to geopolitical supply risks. Markets pricing in improved supply availability. SETUP: Crude broken below $70. Support at $67.93. Below that $65.15. Resistance at $71.84. Above that $73.91. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Most recent EIA report released Jun 18 for week ending Jun 12: Total working gas 2,759 Bcf. Weekly net change +73 Bcf injection. Year-ago (Jun 12, 2025) 2,788 Bcf (down 29 Bcf or -1.0%). 5-year average (2021-2025) 2,608 Bcf (up 151 Bcf or +5.8%). Within 5-year historical range. REGIONAL INJECTIONS: East +18, Midwest +28, Mountain +4, Pacific +5, South Central +16 Bcf. NEXT REPORT: Jun 25 at 10:30 AM ET for week ending Jun 19. Analyst forecasts ~68 Bcf injection. Prior week 73 Bcf below some expectations (80-82 Bcf), contributing to upward pressure on natural gas prices. DEAL STATUS: MOU signed ~Jun 15-17. Formal signing Jun 19, Switzerland. 60-day negotiation window for broader deal. KEY ELEMENTS: Iran diluting highly enriched uranium stockpiles. UN nuclear inspectors returning. Strait of Hormuz reopened to maritime traffic, no tolls. Sanctions relief, possible frozen assets release ($25-300B incentives/reconstruction). Working groups on oversight, sanctions, nuclear matters. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Previously near zero daily transits during conflict. Partial reopening under MOU with fluctuating but generally increasing traffic. Projections rise toward 40-50% pre-war levels (~40 transits/day vs ~100 pre-war) within 30 days if stable. Recent stalls only 12 ships one Sunday amid closure announcements, traffic picked up since. Iranian, Omani, international routes in use. NEGOTIATIONS: Technical talks set to resume Geneva following week. US officials (Secretary of State Marco Rubio) warning talks could halt if Iran seeks tolls. Regional players (Qatar, Saudi Arabia) discussing security implications. BOTTOM LINE: Crude broken below $70. Support at $67.93. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. Gas storage building. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. Deal live. Hormuz shipping normalizing. Geopolitical premium gone. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Wednesday, June 24, 2026. EIA CRUDE OIL INVENTORY REPORT RELEASED TODAY. Week ending June 19. Released June 24 at 10:30 AM ET. MOST RECENT DATA: EIA report released Jun 17 for week ending Jun 12: Commercial crude fell 8.3M barrels to 418.2M barrels (6% below 5-year average). 10th consecutive weekly draw. Total crude incl. SPR at multi-decade lows. Refinery crude inputs 17.2M bpd (+230K b/d WoW). Refinery utilization 96.7% operable capacity. Cushing stocks down 1.6M barrels. Gasoline stocks down 0.9M barrels. Distillate stocks up 1.0M barrels. API DATA: Week ending Jun 19, released Jun 23: Crude fell 0.77M barrels (much smaller than prior week's 8.33M). Significant slowdown in draw rate. MARKET EXPECTATIONS: EIA report for week ending Jun 19 market expects ~-5.1M barrel draw. MARKET CONTEXT: Brent averaging ~$105/bbl Jun-Jul (elevated). WTI following similar dynamics. Tight supply environment. Geopolitical supply disruptions Iran-related, Strait of Hormuz. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Most recent EIA report released Jun 18 for week ending Jun 12: Total stocks 2,759 Bcf. Net change +73 Bcf injection. Year-ago 29 Bcf lower (-1.0%) vs Jun 12, 2025 (2,788 Bcf). 5-year average 151 Bcf higher (+5.8%) vs 2021-2025 avg (2,608 Bcf). Within 5-year historical range. REGIONAL STOCKS: East 532, Midwest 638, Mountain 226, Pacific 309, South Central 1,053 Bcf. REGIONAL INJECTIONS: East +18, Midwest +28, Mountain +4, Pacific +5, South Central +16 Bcf. SETUP: 73 Bcf build matches 5-year average for same week, below last year's 97 Bcf. Henry Hub spot ~$3.19-$3.32/MMBtu. NEXT STORAGE REPORT: Jun 25 for week ending Jun 19. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Crude inventory draws supporting lower prices. Tight supply but geopolitical premium fading. Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. Gas storage building. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Crude fade trade complete. Geopolitical premium gone. Inventory draws supporting lower prices. Gas storage ample. Injections strong. Accumulation thesis intact. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, June 23, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading $73.85-$74.21. KEY SUPPORT: Immediate $73.91; Below: $71.84, $69.92, $67.93, $65.15, $63.30, $61.23, $58.95, $56.53, $54.82. KEY RESISTANCE: Immediate $76.02; Above: $78.42, $80.53, $82.67, $85.09, $87.30, $89.72, $92.50, $94.99, $97.41. TRADING BIAS: Short bias below $73.91 (target lower supports, stop above ~$74.83); Long bias above $76.02 (target higher resistances, same stop). SETUP: Broad $73-$78 zone for immediate support/resistance. June 2026 range $71.73-$106.74. INVENTORY DATA: API (released Jun 16, week ending Jun 12) commercial crude fell 8.33M barrels (exceeded expectations -4.5M). EIA (released Jun 17, week ending Jun 12) commercial crude declined 8.263M barrels to 418.2M barrels (larger than forecast -3.6M to -4.6M). Total crude incl. SPR fell 17.2M barrels to 758.5M barrels (lows not seen since mid-1980s). Cushing stocks dropped 1.606M barrels to 20.03M (near multi-year lows). Context multi-week draw trend, refinery runs up, net imports down. NEXT REPORTS: API Jun 23 (Tue), EIA Jun 24 (Wed) for week ending Jun 19. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading ~$3.263 (day's range $3.256-$3.272). RSI 14 43.501 sell signal (below 50, weakening momentum but not oversold). MACD 12,26 -0.003 sell signal (negative, below signal line). CLASSIC PIVOT POINTS: Pivot 3.266, S1 3.262, R1 3.270. MOVING AVERAGES: MA5 3.264 buy signal (price near/slightly above); MA20 3.298 sell signal (price below); MA50 3.268 sell signal (price below); MA200 3.179 buy signal (price well above). OVERALL: Strong Sell (moving averages sell, technical indicators strong sell). THE READ: Crude broad range $73-$78 zone. Short bias below $73.91. Long bias above $76.02. Inventory draws supporting lower prices. Gas weak technicals. RSI neutral. MACD negative. Moving averages bearish. Accumulation zone intact but technicals need reset. Trade the charts. Respect the levels.

Monday, June 22, 2026. WEEK 26 OPENS. The deal is done. The Strait of Hormuz is open. Crude is at $75.60-$75.70. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures trading $75.60-$75.70 (Jun 22), down 2.1-2.2% from prior session. Recent closes: Jun 21 $75.67, Jun 18 $76.60, Jun 17 $76.79, Jun 16 $76.05, Jun 15 $80.75, Jun 12 $84.88, Jun 11 $87.71. Month-to-date down 19%. YTD up 10%. SETUP: Prices snapping lower after earlier volatility. Stronger dollar headwind. Prediction markets trading near $76 with potential upside targets around $80. DEAL IS LIVE: MOU signed remotely ~Jun 17. Trump signed hard copy Jun 17-18 at Versailles. Formal signing Jun 19, Switzerland. 60-day negotiation period initiated. STRAIT OF HORMUZ REOPENED: Commercial shipping toll-free 60 days. US naval blockade lifted. Iran established Persian Gulf Strait Administration for vessel clearance, no fees during 60-day period. SHIPPING SURGE: Ship crossings spiked 25 commercial vessels Jun 18 (highest since mid-April). Oil tankers Saudi-flagged super tankers carrying millions of barrels moved through. De-confliction line set up between parties for safe passage. CONCERNS: De-mining waterway ongoing. Regional frictions Lebanon ceasefire issues. Some contradictory reports Iran closure threats. Trump reference possible US tolls if final deal not reached in 60 days. IMPLICATION: Supply flowing. Geopolitical premium gone. Crude at $75 new reality. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. If crude breaks below $70, next target $65. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS: Most recent EIA report (released Jun 18, covers week ending Jun 12): Total working gas 2,759 Bcf. Net change +73 Bcf injection. YTY 29 Bcf below same week last year. 5-year average 151 Bcf above average 2,608 Bcf. Prior week (ending Jun 5) +108 Bcf injection to 2,686 Bcf. Build slightly below expectations (consensus ~75-82 Bcf). Inventories within 5-year historical range. Henry Hub trading near $3.15-$3.20/MMBtu. NEXT STORAGE REPORT: Jun 25 (week ending Jun 19). SETUP: Storage ample. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Crude—fade trade complete. $75 new reality. Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. Gas—accumulation thesis intact. Storage ample. Accumulate $3.05-$3.15. Target $4.00+. Week 26 opens with supply flowing and geopolitical premium gone. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Thursday, June 18, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures trading $75.09-$75.53 (Jun 18), down 1.6-2.2% from prior session (previous close ~$76.79). Intraday traded near $76 earlier, extended losses to $74.97-$75.62. Brent crude below $78/barrel. DRIVER: US-Iran peace deal easing supply disruption fears. CONTEXT: Prices erased most conflict-driven gains. Month-to-date declines exceeding 27% in some measures. DEAL SIGNING TOMORROW: Friday, Jun 19, 2026, Switzerland (Geneva/Bürgenstock resort). Facilitated by Swiss authorities, mediators Pakistan & Qatar. DEAL TERMS: 60-day ceasefire extension (including Lebanon). Strait of Hormuz reopening to commercial traffic, toll-free passage 60 days (extendable). US naval blockade lifted. Demining & security measures referenced. Up to $25B frozen assets possible release. Nuclear talks 60-day window on enrichment, stockpiles, sanctions relief. SHIPPING: Some vessels (oil tankers) already crossing post-Jun 15 announcement as goodwill gesture. Shipping firms monitoring for security guarantees, demining completion, post-signing confirmation. IMPLICATION: Fade trade complete. Crude at $75. Geopolitical premium gone. Tomorrow's signing formality. Market already priced in deal. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. If crude breaks below $70, next target $65. Thesis intact. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS: Most recent EIA report (released Jun 11, covers week ending Jun 5): Total working gas 2,686 Bcf. Weekly net change +108 Bcf injection. Year-over-year 5 Bcf below Jun 2025. 5-year average 151 Bcf (+6%) above average. REGIONAL: East 514 (+34), Midwest 610 (+37), Mountain 222 (+4), Pacific 304 (+6), South Central 1,037 (+28). NEXT STORAGE REPORT: Jun 18 at 10:30 AM ET (week ending Jun 12). SETUP: Storage ample. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Crude—fade trade complete. $75 target zone. Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. Gas—accumulation thesis intact. Storage ample. Accumulate $3.05-$3.15. Target $4.00+. Tomorrow's deal signing formality. Market already priced in. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Wednesday, June 17, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures settled ~$75.39 (Jun 16), live quotes Jun 17 showing $76.30-$76.48. Fade trade accelerating. DEAL STATUS: Preliminary MOU reached Jun 14-15. Virtual signing reported. Formal signing ceremony Friday, Jun 19, Geneva. DEAL TERMS: 60-day ceasefire extension. Strait of Hormuz reopening, toll-free period expected. US naval blockade on Iranian ports lifted. Nuclear talks deferred to follow-up. IMPLICATION: Crude crashed from $90-$100 highs earlier Jun to $75-$76 now. That's $15-$25 drop in 3 weeks. Geopolitical premium gone. Supply flows resume. Oversupply thesis intact. Target was $70-$75. We're there. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Short any bounces above $80. Target $70. If crude breaks below $70, next target $65. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (released Jun 11, covers week ending Jun 5): Total working gas 2,686 Bcf. Weekly net change +108 Bcf injection. Year-over-year 5 Bcf lower than Jun 2025. 5-year average 151 Bcf (+6%) above average 2,535 Bcf. REGIONAL BREAKDOWN: East 514 Bcf (+34, 2.2% above 5-yr avg). Midwest 610 Bcf (+37, 3.9% above 5-yr avg). Mountain 222 Bcf (+4, 29.8% above 5-yr avg). Pacific 304 Bcf (+6, 27.2% above 5-yr avg). South Central 1,037 Bcf (+28, 0.2% above 5-yr avg). SETUP: Storage ample. Injections strong. No weather shock yet. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Next storage report Jun 18 (week ending Jun 12). BOTTOM LINE: Crude—fade trade complete. $75-$76 target zone. Short any bounces above $80. Target $70. Gas—accumulation thesis intact. Storage ample. Accumulate $3.05-$3.15. Target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, June 16, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading $80.58-$81.58 range. Open ~$80.96, High $81.53, Low $80.86. Sharp drop from prior days (Jun 12 high ~$87). SETUP: Crude in free fall. Geopolitical premium gone. Watching technical support levels. KEY SUPPORT: $80.24-$80.55 (Classic/Fibonacci S3/S2 pivots, near-term daily support). $82.67 (key near-term support). $85 (major psychological/support zone, floor in June outlooks). $74-$75 (longer-term Fibonacci-based support, 61.8% retracement, 200-day MA proximity). KEY RESISTANCE: $81.22-$81.53 (Classic/Fibonacci R1/R2 pivots, immediate upside targets). $85.09-$87.30 (near-term resistance cluster, key breakout level). $100 (psychological pivot, major reference level). $106-$108 (multi-month resistance zone from prior highs). READ: Crude testing support at $80.24-$80.55. If holds, expect bounce toward $85. If breaks, next target $74-$75. Momentum bearish. Volume declining. Fade trade. Short any bounces above $82. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading $3.02-$3.15 range. NGN26 contract ~$3.153. TECHNICAL INDICATORS: RSI(14) ~29.9-32.1 (Sell signal, in/approaching oversold below 30-40). MACD(12,26) ~-0.014 to -0.015 (Sell signal, negative histogram, bearish momentum on daily). Moving averages: All 12 periods signaling Sell. Overall: 8-9 Sell signals on daily. PIVOT POINTS: Support S1 ~$3.02, S2 ~$3.016-$3.027, S3 ~$3.008-$3.017. Pivot ~$3.027-$3.045. Resistance R1 ~$3.032-$3.053, R2 ~$3.04-$3.063, R3 ~$3.044-$3.071. READ: Gas oversold on daily. Weekly timeframe shows potential bullish MACD crossover suggesting longer-term momentum improvement despite daily bearishness. Accumulation zone intact. $3.02-$3.05 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Crude—testing support at $80.24-$80.55. Short any bounces above $82. Target $74-$75. Gas—oversold daily, bullish weekly setup. Accumulate $3.02-$3.05. Target $4.00+. Trade the charts. Respect the levels.

Monday, June 15, 2026. WEEK 25 OPENS. The deal is done or nearly done. Strait of Hormuz about to reopen. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures $80.07-$80.77, down 4.8-5.7% on day. Intraday range $80.00-$82.42. Previous close ~$84.88. Earlier in week: $92-$93 (Jun 11), $86-$87 (Jun 12). CATALYST: Geopolitical risk premium evaporating. US and Iran close to finalizing MOU. Both sides agreed on text. Signing could happen in coming days. DEAL TERMS: Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, no tolls on passage, prewar shipping levels restored within ~30 days. US naval blockade on Iranian ports lifted. Some sanctions waivers allowing Iran to sell oil freely during initial period. 60-day ceasefire extension framework. Nuclear issues deferred to follow-up negotiations. IMPLICATION: Crude crashing because war premium gone. Supply disruption risk that drove prices to $95 evaporating. Thesis was right—geopolitical spikes fade, mean reversion kicks in. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot (Jun 8) $3.10/MMBtu. July futures ~$3.14/MMBtu. August futures ~$3.18/MMBtu. Storage (week ending Jun 5): 2,686 Bcf, +108 Bcf injection. 5 Bcf below year-ago, 151 Bcf (+6%) above 5-year average. Next storage report: Jun 18. SETUP: Gas holding accumulation range. Storage ample. Injections strong. No weather shock yet. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Crude—fade trade on. Strait reopens, supply flows, prices crash toward $70-$75 range. Short any bounces above $82. Gas—accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Week 25 opens with crude collapsing on deal news. War premium gone. Mean reversion accelerates. Gas decoupled and holding. Accumulation thesis intact. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Friday, June 12, 2026. PERU ENERGY MARKET: South America's first LNG exporter and modest but strategic global natural gas player. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: 2025: 14,769.6 million cubic meters (up from 14,480 in 2024). Primary source: Camisea fields (Blocks 88 & 56). Production stable but constrained by feedgas availability and field maturity. LNG EXPORTS: Peru LNG terminal (Pampa Melchorita): 4.5 mtpa capacity, operating since 2010. 2025 exports: 5,293.6 million cubic meters (up from 5,090 in 2024). Contract structure: ~70% to Mexico's CFE under long-term contracts, balance on spot market. Recent trend: Declines in some periods due to maintenance, technical issues, feedgas constraints. MARKET POSITION: South America's first LNG exporter. Modest global LNG player vs. major exporters (Australia, Qatar, US). Fitch Ratings: Peru LNG S.R.L. IDRs at B, Stable outlook (2025). Liquidity, profitability, leverage tied to operations and LNG market dynamics. STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE: Peru LNG provides Mexico ~70% of its LNG supply under long-term contracts. Camisea fields mature but still productive. No major new discoveries announced. Amazon Basin fields (e.g., Bretana by PetroTal) provide supplementary oil production. CHALLENGES: Feedgas constraints limit export growth. Field maturity requires ongoing investment. Maintenance and technical issues periodically disrupt operations. Spot market exposure creates revenue volatility. THE OUTLOOK: Peru remains stable, modest LNG exporter. Not growth story, maintenance story. Camisea fields continue producing for years but decline curves inevitable. For institutional capital, Peru LNG offers stable cash flows and long-term contracts. Upside limited. BOTTOM LINE: Peru—stable LNG exporter, mature fields, modest growth, long-term contracts, execution risk from maintenance. Defensive energy play in South America. Not frontier opportunity.

Thursday, June 11, 2026. MADAGASCAR ENERGY MARKET: Sits on massive untapped oil reserves but remains net importer with minimal commercial production. OIL RESERVES: Total potential ~20 billion barrels of oil in place/resources. Tsimiroro field (Madagascar Oil, Block 3104): 1.7-2 billion barrels heavy oil, 25-year development license (2015), pilot/production since ~2013. Bemolanga field: 16.6 billion barrels ultra-heavy oil/bitumen (~9.8 billion recoverable), one of world's largest undeveloped bitumen deposits, historically partnered with Total. Combined (Tsimiroro + Bemolanga): ~9.9 billion barrels (2022 assessment). USGS undiscovered (Morondava Basin): Mean 5.1 billion barrels, F95-F5 range 1.4-11.8 billion barrels. NATURAL GAS: Proven reserves zero, minimal/no commercial production. Potential >91 billion m³ (older estimates), some exploration wells showed non-commercial gas flows. Interest linked to nearby Mozambique discoveries. PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION: No significant commercial oil production (pilot-scale only). Consumption ~19,000-19,465 bpd (2024), net importer. Electricity heavily dependent on imported fuels. ENERGY MIX: ~76% of final energy consumption from biofuels/waste. Low electrification and renewable penetration relative to potential. EXPLORATION: Multiple international companies active (onshore/offshore). Madagascar Oil longest-operating player with largest onshore acreage. Historical wells showed light oil and gas potential. THE OPPORTUNITY: Madagascar has reserves but lacks infrastructure, capital, political stability for rapid development. Heavy oil extraction technically challenging/expensive. Bitumen requires advanced technology and significant upfront investment. For patient capital with long-term horizons, frontier play. Execution risk high. BOTTOM LINE: Madagascar—massive reserves, minimal production, high risk, long timeline. Not near-term energy market mover. Speculative frontier play for institutional capital with deep pockets and patience.

Wednesday, June 10, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI trading $88.20-$89.34 range, high near $90, low near $88.28. Earlier in week spiked to $95.47 on Iran tensions, retraced $4+ as tensions eased. YTD gains ~55-58%. Futures curve backwardation amid supply concerns. Geopolitical volatility dominant driver. Setup: Crude range-bound, waiting for Strait clarity. If negotiations succeed and Strait reopens, crude crashes. If talks fail and conflict escalates, crude spikes. Market pricing stalemate with occasional flare-ups. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot June 1 $3.07/MMBtu. Futures NGN26 ~$3.183. May 2026 average $2.94/MMBtu. EIA STEO: $3.50/MMBtu full-year 2026 average. STORAGE: Week ending May 29 (released June 4): 2,578 Bcf working gas, +95 Bcf net injection. 3 Bcf below year-ago, 138 Bcf (6%) above 5-year average. Next report June 11. Setup: Gas holding accumulation range. Storage ample, production strong, seasonal factors neutral. Waiting for weather shock or LNG demand spike. GEOPOLITICAL: US Army helicopter crashed near Strait June 9, pilots stable/uninjured. Trump blamed Iran, US conducted proportional retaliatory strikes. Trump maintains deal close, Strait could reopen shortly after signing. Negotiations in final throes, possible deal in 2-3 days. Sticking points: Iran's nuclear enrichment (US demands long-term suspension, HEU dilution, site dismantling, snap inspections). Iran resisting. BOTTOM LINE: Crude elevated on war premium. Gas decoupled. Negotiations fluid. Helicopter incident adds volatility but Trump optimistic. If Strait reopens, crude crashes. If talks fail, crude spikes. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, June 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading $88-$91 range. Consolidation pattern intact. Pivot $90.89. Support: $90.68 (S1), $90.39 (S2), $90.18 (S3), $88.70, $87.30, $85.09. Resistance: $91.18 (R1), $91.39 (R2), $91.68 (R3), $92.50, $93.50, $94.99. Speculative range $83-$93, broader June range $71.73-$106.74. Consolidation likely without clear breakout. Tests of $85-$88 supports or $93-$97 resistances depend on news (inventories, geopolitics, Strait). Technical bias: short-term neutral, waiting for catalyst. Volume declining, Bollinger bands tightening, volatility compression suggests big move coming. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub holding accumulation range, trading $3.00-$3.30. Resistance: $3.111 (R1), $3.182 (R2), $3.309 (R3), $3.30 area, $3.736. Support: $2.913 (S1), $2.786 (S2), $2.715 (S3), buy zone $2.883-$2.676. Gas consolidating, waiting for catalyst. Storage ample, production strong, seasonal factors neutral. Technical bias: neutral to slightly bullish. If breaks above $3.30, target $3.736. If breaks below $2.913, target $2.676. THE READ: Both markets consolidating. Crude waiting for Strait clarity. Gas waiting for weather or storage shock. Trade the levels. Respect the technicals.

Monday, June 8, 2026. WTI crude oil trading $90-$92.50/bbl. July 2026 futures near $90. Prediction markets show 87% probability WTI moves below $90 this week. 94% odds closes above $88 on June 8. War premium fading. Geopolitical risk pricing out. CRUDE OIL: WTI at $90.50, down from $91-$92 range last week. Volatility compressing. Range-bound trading. EIA forecasts WTI around $106 in May/June 2026 amid inventory draws. Longer-term decline projected toward $89 in Q4 2026. Analysts revised 2026 averages upward due to supply disruptions. Full-year WTI in $80-$96 range in updated outlooks. Underlying thesis remains: mean reversion, oversupply, structural headwinds. Position: Short rallies toward $95, target $85-$88. Risk management first. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub at $3.22. July 2026 futures around $3.22/MMBtu. Spot June 1 was $3.07. Prediction markets trading $3.22-$3.25 for June 8 close. Elevated storage, strong production, seasonal factors keeping prices low-to-mid $3 range near-term. EIA forecasts 2026 annual average approximately $3.50/MMBtu. Position: Accumulate $3.00-$3.25, target $4.00+. GEOPOLITICAL: Iran halted negotiations early June, vowing to completely block Strait of Hormuz. Ceasefire fragile. Military skirmishes ongoing. Trump says deal largely negotiated. Iran denies. No breakthrough expected by June 8. Strait remains wildcard. If reopens, crude crashes. If closes further, crude spikes. Market pricing in stalemate. THE SETUP: Crude fading on de-escalation hopes. Gas holding accumulation range. Decoupling thesis intact. Week 24 about patience. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Friday, June 6, 2026. ONE YEAR AGO. June 5, 2025. WTI crude oil approximately $62.77/bbl. Brent crude oil approximately $64.88/bbl. Futures settlement data shows open $64.91, high $65.86, low $64.63, close settle $65.34/bbl. Natural gas NYMEX front-month futures approximately $3.677/MMBtu. Daily range $3.62-$3.79. Henry Hub spot pricing softer. Next-day cash around $2.76-$2.85/MMBtu. BROADER CONTEXT: Oil prices range-bound/softening amid rising inventories, OPEC+ production adjustments, subdued demand growth before geopolitical tensions pushed Brent higher later month. Monthly averages showed Brent declining toward $63-$64/bbl lows by late May/early June. Natural gas futures hovered mid-$3 range, supported by seasonal factors, physical markets discounted. THE COMPARISON: Fast forward one year. June 2026. WTI trading around $91-$92, up 45% from June 5, 2025. Natural gas at $3.10-$3.18, down 13% from June 5, 2025. Why divergence? Geopolitical risk premium in crude (Iran war, Strait closure fears, supply disruption concerns). Natural gas decoupled. Fundamentals remain soft (oversupply, storage ample, production high). THE SETUP: One year ago, market pricing oversupply. Crude $62, Gas $3.68. Today, crude $91, gas $3.10. Crude spiked on geopolitics. Gas faded on fundamentals. Decoupling thesis validated. THE LESSON: Markets reprice on new information (geopolitics, supply, demand, technicals). One year ago, bear market for crude. Today, bull market driven by war premium. But underlying thesis remains: mean reversion, oversupply, structural headwinds. Trade the data. Not the narrative.

Thursday, June 5, 2026. SOUTH KOREA. One of world's most import-dependent energy economies. Relies on foreign sources 90-95% of energy needs. Primarily crude oil and LNG. Negligible domestic fossil fuel production. No international oil/gas pipelines. Depends entirely on maritime tanker shipments. Creates structural vulnerabilities to geopolitical disruptions, chokepoints, supply shocks. CRUDE OIL IMPORTS: Just under 2.6 million barrels/day. Ranks among top global importers. Roughly 60%+ from Middle East. Highly exposed to Strait of Hormuz. Refineries 70-80% optimized for Middle Eastern heavy crude. Key ports: Busan, Gwangyang, Yeosu, Daesan. NATURAL GAS IMPORTS: South Korea among world's top LNG buyers. Key sources: United States (starting 2017 via KOGAS-Cheniere Sabine Pass deal 3.5 MTPA), Qatar/Middle East (21%+ of LNG), Australia, Russia Yamal LNG. Total LNG imports 46.3 Mt in 2024, only ~5.6 Mt from US. GEOPOLITICAL RISKS: Maritime chokepoints: Strait of Hormuz (critical 95%+ crude), Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, Suez/Persian Gulf routes. Tensions (Taiwan blockades, Houthi-style threats) could coincide with cyberattacks on LNG terminals, refineries, networks. Russia-Ukraine war disrupted flows, highlighted diversification needs. US LNG DIVERSIFICATION: Serves as diversification tool for energy security, reduce Middle East dependence. Shipping from US Gulf/future West Coast/Alaska projects avoid some Asian chokepoints. Faces economic hurdles amid declining domestic LNG demand during energy transition, occasional US export facility outages (Freeport). RUSSIAN LNG: Russian LNG exports Asia/South Korea via Yamal leverage shorter Arctic/Northern Sea Route distances. Persist despite sanctions. Illustrate shifting supply dynamics amid geopolitical realignments. INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITIES: Climate risks (typhoons, sea-level rise) threaten ports handling 70%+ crude imports, 100% refining capacity. Major LNG terminals/refining hubs (Yeosu, Daesan) coastal/exposed. ENERGY SECURITY STRATEGY: Balance LNG's role in transition with diversification away from volatile regions. Structural dependence on seaborne imports from Middle East/elsewhere persists. Historical pipeline proposals (Russia via China/Sakhalin) not materialized at scale. BOTTOM LINE: South Korea barometer for Asian energy security. Chokepoint closures ripple through global economy. Watch Strait. Watch Taiwan. Watch ports.

Wednesday, June 4, 2026. TWENTY YEARS AGO. June 2006. WTI crude oil monthly average: $73.94/bbl. Specific WTI closing prices: June 2 $72.75, June 9 $71.64, June 16 $69.97, June 23 $70.78, June 29 $73.52. WTI stayed above $70/bbl for much of May-July 2006. Demand growth outpacing non-OPEC supply. OPEC Reference Basket May 2006 averaged $65.11/bbl, peaked $68.37 early month, volatile trading continued into June. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub natural gas monthly average end June 2006 approximately $5.84/MMBtu, down slightly from $5.97 end May. Natural gas prices 2006 overall moderated from 2005 hurricane-driven highs. Summer levels supported by high storage but pressured by warm weather and power generation demand. CONTEXT: High oil prices driven by rapid demand growth (China booming), limited non-OPEC supply growth, earlier disruptions from Hurricane Katrina/Rita still echoing. Natural gas benefited from ample storage inventories. Retail gasoline averaged $2.70-$3.00/gallon during summer 2006, influenced by crude levels and refinery margins. THE COMPARISON: Fast forward twenty years. June 2026. WTI trading around $91-$92, up 23% from June 2006. Natural gas at $3.10-$3.18, down 46% from June 2006. Crude doubled in two decades. Gas collapsed. Why? Supply dynamics. Shale revolution. LNG exports. Oversupply in gas. Geopolitical risk premium in crude. THE LESSON: Markets evolve. Thesis changes. But fundamentals remain: supply, demand, geopolitics. Trade the data. Not the narrative.

Tuesday, June 2, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading $91.30-$91.33, down ~0.9% on day. Session range ~$91.30-$92.64. KEY LEVELS: Support $91.17 (below that $91.33, below that $91.55), Resistance $91.93 (above that $92.09, above that $92.31). TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Investing.com technical summary Strong Sell overall. Moving averages show Sell (short-term MAs 5/10/20 periods signaling sell, MA50/100 buy, MA200 sell). Technical indicators Strong Sell (STOCH sell, CCI sell, ROC sell, RSI neutral ~49.8, MACD buy, several oversold readings STOCHRSI/Williams %R). SETUP: Markets at bottom of large consolidation range, seeking momentum amid headline-driven volatility. DailyForex June 2026 monthly forecast: WTI expected stay choppy/volatile near $100 level as key pivot area, $85 as major support amid ongoing Middle East supply/geopolitical risks, range-bound behavior likely persist. TradingView: Current price action $87-$92 range recently, overall technical rating Neutral, mixed signals across timeframes. LiteFinance technical outlook: Strong upward momentum on longer-term charts post-correction, nearest support shifted to $88-$90 zone, resistance ~$107 (potential $120), SMA50 uptrending, MACD positive, RSI stabilized. BROADER CONTEXT: Prices consolidating $85-$110 zone amid geopolitical tensions, Middle East supply risks supporting risk premium, June expectations lean toward choppiness rather than strong directional breakout. OVERALL TECHNICAL PICTURE: Short-term bearish/neutral pressure, Strong Sell on aggregates, short-term MAs and several oscillators negative, medium-term signals mixed, longer-term views point to potential support $85-$90 and upside toward $100-$107+, market appears range-bound/choppy around current levels $90-$100, influenced by geopolitics/consolidation. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading $3.0-$3.3 area, settlements near $3.04 or higher intraday. KEY LEVELS: Support $2.913 (1st), $2.786 (2nd), $2.715 (3rd). Resistance $3.111 (1st), $3.182 (2nd), $3.309 (3rd). Classic pivots S3 $3.126, S2 $3.151, S1 $3.171, Pivot $3.196, R1 $3.216, R2 $3.241, R3 $3.261. Additional context: 52-week Fib retracements ~38.2% near $3.224, psychological levels like $3.00. GEOPOLITICS: Iran halted negotiations with US on June 1, announced plans to fully block Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media Tasnim stated negotiators would stop exchanging messages with US via intermediaries in retaliation for alleged ceasefire violations. Tehran would move to completely close strait. Oil prices rose 7%+ on report. LATE MAY CONTEXT: US officials reported close to agreement with Iran to extend existing ceasefire, reopen Strait of Hormuz to shipping, launch further talks on Iran's nuclear program. Reports indicated tentative MOU for 60-day ceasefire extension, unrestricted shipping through strait (no tolls/harassment, Iran to remove mines ~30 days), sanctions relief elements, limits on highly enriched uranium. Trump reportedly reviewed/edited proposed framework, sending tougher terms back (including strait/uranium destruction), deal described as largely negotiated but pending final approvals. SETUP: Crude at critical technical juncture, short-term bearish, but longer-term support $85-$90. If Iran closes Strait, expect break above $92.31, target $100-$110. If negotiations resume, expect break below $91.17, target $85-$88. Gas consolidating $2.913-$3.111, waiting for catalyst.

Monday, June 1, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI opened week $88.50-$89.44, up from Friday's close. Day's range: Low $88.45-$89.17, High $91.25-$94.74. Intraday volatility, prices rising toward $90-$94 range. SETUP: Crude consolidating after May pullback. Geopolitical risk premium still elevated. But negotiations breaking down. Iran halted negotiations with US on June 1, vowed to completely block Strait of Hormuz, citing ceasefire violations and other issues. Major development: If Iran closes Strait, crude spikes to $100+ immediately. KEY LEVELS: Support $88, Resistance $92, above that $95-$100. SETUP: If Iran closes Strait, expect break above $95, target $100-$110. If negotiations resume and deal signed, expect break below $88, target $80-$85. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot $3.10 on May 26 (up 6.16% from prior day's $2.92). June 2026 futures settled ~$3.04, nearby months ranging $3.08-$3.94. Markets Insider showing natural gas $3.18 on June 1 (down 3.34% that session). SETUP: Gas volatile, following crude higher on geopolitical risk, but fundamentals remain soft, storage ample, production high. KEY LEVELS: Support $2.85, Resistance $3.20, above that $3.50. SETUP: If crude spikes on Strait closure, expect gas to spike to $3.50+. If negotiations resume, expect gas to fade back to $2.85-$3.00. GEOPOLITICS: Iran halted negotiations with US on June 1. Earlier in week, Reuters reported US and Iran reached agreement to extend ceasefire by 60 days and lift shipping restrictions through Strait. PBS reported US and Iranian negotiators reached tentative deal to extend ceasefire by 60 days, start new nuclear talks, address Strait. But by June 1, Iran halted talks, vowed to completely block Strait, citing ceasefire violations. Washington Post reported US and Iran trading new strikes (US targeted sites near Hormuz, Iran retaliated). Trump said deal will work out well, but priorities include reopening Hormuz and nuclear limits. BOTTOM LINE: Crude at critical juncture. If Iran closes Strait, looking at $100-$110 crude. If negotiations resume and deal signed, looking at $80-$85 crude. Gas will follow crude higher or lower. Capital preservation first. Watch the Strait. Trade the data.

Friday, May 29, 2026. AZERBAIJAN. THE CASPIAN ENERGY POWERHOUSE. Azerbaijan sits on western shore of Caspian Sea, one of world's most energy-rich regions. Oil and natural gas reserves massive, geopolitically contested. OIL PRODUCTION: Produces ~800,000 barrels per day, mostly from offshore Caspian fields. Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) field is crown jewel, capacity 600,000 barrels per day. Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline exports Azerbaijani crude to Mediterranean, capacity 1 million barrels per day, critical artery for global oil markets. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Produces ~30 billion cubic meters gas per year. Shah Deniz field is largest, capacity 16 billion cubic meters per year. South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) carries Azerbaijani gas to Turkey/Europe, capacity 16 billion cubic meters per year. Southern Gas Corridor extends SCP to Italy, capacity 10 billion cubic meters per year, strategic alternative to Russian gas for Europe. GEOPOLITICAL COMPLEXITY: Azerbaijan borders Iran, Russia, Georgia, Armenia. Caspian Sea shared with Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran. Territorial disputes ongoing. Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia disrupted regional stability, but recent ceasefires allowed energy projects to proceed. STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE: Azerbaijan critical energy supplier to Europe. BTC pipeline and Southern Gas Corridor bypass Russia, reduce European dependency on Russian energy. If Azerbaijan's production disrupted, European energy security threatened, oil/gas prices spike globally. CURRENT SITUATION: Azerbaijan expanding production, new offshore fields coming online, Southern Gas Corridor operating at full capacity, European demand for Azerbaijani gas strong. But geopolitical risks remain—regional tensions could disrupt exports at any time. INVESTMENT ANGLE: Companies involved in Azerbaijani energy infrastructure positioned to benefit from European energy security investments. Expansion projects underway, long-term contracts with Europe locked in. BOTTOM LINE: Azerbaijan critical energy supplier to Europe. BTC pipeline and Southern Gas Corridor strategic alternatives to Russian energy. Geopolitical risks high, but long-term outlook bullish for Azerbaijani energy exports. Watch Azerbaijan—it's a barometer for European energy independence.

Thursday, May 28, 2026. POLAND. ENERGY CROSSROADS OF EUROPE. Poland sits at intersection of Russian energy and Western European demand. Critical chokepoint for natural gas and oil flowing west. NATURAL GAS INFRASTRUCTURE: Yamal-Europe pipeline receives Russian natural gas, capacity 33 billion cubic meters per year, but geopolitical tensions have disrupted flows multiple times. Baltic Pipe (completed 2022) brings Norwegian gas from Denmark, capacity 10 billion cubic meters per year, strategic alternative to Russian supply. Swinoujscie LNG terminal, one of Europe's largest, capacity 5 million tons per year (equivalent ~7 billion cubic meters gas). CRUDE OIL INFRASTRUCTURE: Druzhba pipeline carries Russian crude through Poland to Germany/beyond, capacity 1.4 million barrels per day, critical artery for European refineries. Poland also imports crude via Baltic Sea, Port of Gdansk handles significant volumes. STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE: Poland is transit country, not major producer, but critical hub for European energy security. If Russian supply disrupted, Poland becomes bottleneck, LNG imports surge, prices spike, European refineries scramble for alternatives. If Strait of Hormuz closes, global oil prices spike, Poland's import costs rise, inflation pressures build. CURRENT SITUATION: Poland has diversified away from Russian gas, Baltic Pipe running at full capacity, LNG imports steady, but country remains vulnerable to supply shocks. Crude oil dependency on Russian Druzhba remains high, alternative sources limited. INVESTMENT ANGLE: Poland's energy infrastructure aging, modernization underway, new LNG capacity, pipeline upgrades, renewable energy expansion. Companies involved in Polish energy infrastructure positioned to benefit from European energy security investments. BOTTOM LINE: Poland is Europe's energy crossroads, critical chokepoint for both gas and oil. Geopolitical tensions directly impact Polish energy costs and European energy security. Watch Poland—it's a barometer for European energy stress.

Wednesday, May 27, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI closed $92.51, down from open $93.88-$93.90. Day range $89.41-$93.90. Pulled back from earlier May highs near $107-$108 on profit-taking, inventory data, holiday caution. Futures curve steep backwardation: distant 2026 contracts $30-40 below near-term, signaling expected short-term tightness followed by relief as production recovers. EIA outlook: Global inventories falling sharply Q2 2026, supporting Brent ~$106/bbl May-June before easing later in year. WTI typically trades at discount to Brent. Analyst forecasts: S&P Global raised assumptions to ~$95 WTI; J.P. Morgan and others see $80-100 range (some revised higher from earlier bearish views); longer-term expectations trend lower toward $70-80. KEY LEVELS: Support $90, Resistance $95, above that $100. SETUP: If break below $90, target $85. If hold $90 and get deal announcement, expect bounce toward $95-$98. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub trading $2.95-$3.02, June contract near $3.00. April monthly average $2.77, early May weeks showed continued softness. EIA 2026 forecast: Henry Hub averaging ~$3.50/MMBtu for full year (down ~2% from prior expectations). Storage/supply: Working gas storage ended winter slightly above five-year average, injection season expectations point to ample inventories supporting lower near-term prices. LNG/demand: Feedgas demand for LNG exports has seen seasonal maintenance impacts, longer-term growth in exports is key bullish driver for 2027+. SETUP: Support $2.85, Resistance $3.10, range-bound for now. GEOPOLITICS: No finalized deal as of May 27, but negotiations advancing. US officials indicated sides agreed in principle to framework reopening Strait, Iran committing to dispose of highly enriched uranium; details remained under negotiation. Trump said both sides close to finalizing terms involving strong inspections, emphasized no rush, US blockade would continue until deal certified/signed. Proposed framework: 60-day ceasefire extension, Strait de-mined/reopened for free passage (no tolls), Iran could sell oil with some US sanctions waivers, further talks address Iran's nuclear program, Iran would clear mines in ~30 days post-agreement. May 27 incidents: Iran accused US of violating fragile ceasefire with strikes near Strait (Hormozgan province targeting boats/missile sites or alleged mining attempts), US officials described actions as self-defense. Iranian position: Officials acknowledged understandings on large portion of issues, progress toward framework, but full deal not imminent, key disputes remaining (sanctions relief, nuclear details, Hormuz management). BOTTOM LINE: Crude consolidating $90-$95 waiting for deal announcement. If deal signed, expect break below $90, target $80-$85. If talks collapse, back to $100+. Gas soft, storage ample, prices stable. Capital preservation first.

Monday, May 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI opened week at $92.04, down 4.72% from Friday's close of $96.60. Drop driven by negotiations advancing toward potential short-term agreement on Strait of Hormuz reopening. Week recap: May 22 open $98, close $96.60; May 21 open $98.95, close $96.35; May 20 open $104.12, close $98.26; May 24 close $92.13. Trend clear: crude pricing in de-escalation. Trump stated agreement "has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization," explicitly linking it to Strait reopening. Indicated willingness to wait a few days for "right answer" while keeping pressure in place. KEY LEVELS: Support $90, below that $85. Resistance $95, above that $100. SETUP: If deal announced, expect break below $90, target $80-$85. If talks collapse, back to $100+. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot prices falling. May 1 $2.66, May 8 $2.74, May 15 $2.86, May 22 $2.91. CME futures trading $3.00-$3.03, July contract $3.034. Pressure from cooler U.S. weather forecasts reducing AC demand, record-high production, soft fundamentals. SETUP: Support $2.85, resistance $3.10, range-bound for now. GEOPOLITICS: Trump says agreement largely negotiated, Strait reopening central. Iran floated proposals via Pakistan: reopening strait, sanctions relief, frozen assets release, US force withdrawal, 30-day nuclear talks window. Remaining hurdles: Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, nuclear enrichment limits, strait control/security arrangements. Both sides rejected elements of other's proposals. No final deal confirmed yet, but Trump signaling imminent announcements. BOTTOM LINE: Crude pricing in deal. If happens, expect $80-$85 targets. If doesn't, back to $100+. Gas soft, weather cooler, production high, prices stable. Capital preservation first.

Friday, May 22, 2026. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Mon $108.66 (+3%), Tue $107.77 (-0.82%), Wed $98.26 (-8.82% sharp drop on peace deal progress), Thu $97.73 (-0.54%), Fri $98.30 (+0.58%). Weekly range $96-$109, volatile mid-week plunge followed by partial recovery. Crude tumbled May 20 on reports of progress toward US-Iran peace deal that could reopen Strait of Hormuz; prices stabilized as negotiations remained fluid. Technical: Rebound from April lows near $79, golden cross forming on longer-term moving averages, warnings of potential corrections toward $95-$100 support. Volatility: Continued noisy trading, wide possible range $80 floor to $120 ceiling depending on de-escalation or further disruptions. Year-over-year: Prices remain elevated but face downward pressure from potential resolution of conflicts. NATURAL GAS RECAP: Storage report May 21 showed 101 Bcf injection for week ending May 15 (33 Bcf above year-ago, 149 Bcf above five-year average). Working gas reached 2,391 Bcf, well-supplied heading into summer, expectations for above-average injections through October. Henry Hub futures near $2.99-$3.01, seasonal lull, mild weather supporting storage refills, LNG maintenance suppressing near-term demand. Production ~106-109 Bcf/d, Mexican exports steady near 7 Bcf/d. GEOPOLITICS: Incremental progress toward preliminary one-page MOU between US and Iran, but stalled on core issues (Strait of Hormuz reopening, Iran's nuclear program). Iran's approach: End war within 30 days, mutual non-aggression, lift US blockade for Strait reopening, war reparations, US force withdrawal, nuclear issues deferred. US rejected Iranian control over strait or insufficient nuclear concessions. Trump cited great progress, very good chance of deal, threatened to resume strikes if needed. Iranian officials warned against returning to war. Obstacles: Disputes over sequencing, Iran's enrichment levels, verification, whether Iran can impose fees/maintain control over strait. BOTTOM LINE: Crude fell $108.66 to $98.30 on de-escalation hopes. If deal materializes, expect further downside toward $85-$90. If talks collapse, back to $110+. Gas well-supplied, storage builds large, demand soft, prices stable. Capital preservation first.

Thursday, May 21, 2026. CRUDE OIL: EIA report (May 20, week ending May 15) bullish. U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 7.86M barrels to 445M barrels (2% below five-year average). Refinery crude inputs averaged 16.3M b/d (down 80K b/d from prior week), utilization 91.6% of operable capacity. Motor gasoline inventories down 1.5M barrels (5% below five-year average). Distillate fuel inventories up 0.4M barrels (9% below five-year average). Total commercial petroleum inventories declined 9M barrels week-over-week. Crude oil imports averaged 6M b/d (up 116K b/d from prior week). WTI spot price May 15: $108.99/bbl (up $10.12 from prior week, up $45.15 year-over-year). May 21: WTI trading near $99/bbl (down from recent highs) amid easing geopolitical tensions. NATURAL GAS: Storage report today 10:30 AM ET. Last week: Working gas 2,290 Bcf (51 Bcf above year-ago, 140 Bcf above five-year average). Analysts expect 96 Bcf build (range 85-100 Bcf). Henry Hub June contract $2.86-$2.88, soft fundamentals, above-average storage, LNG maintenance suppressing demand. GEOPOLITICS: VP Vance said talks with Iran have seen substantial advancement. Trump paused planned Tuesday strike at request of Gulf leaders due to "serious negotiations." Iran coordinated passage of 26 vessels through Strait in past 24 hours, asserting continued control despite US naval blockade. US and Iranian officials reportedly close to one-page MOU that would formally end current phase of conflict, launch 30 days of detailed talks on sanctions relief, nuclear curbs, Strait transit rules. Iran reviewing US draft ending war while leaving core issues for follow-on negotiations. Gulf states pressing Trump to prioritize negotiations over strikes. Crude pulled back from $108.99 to $99 on easing tensions. If deal materializes, expect further downside toward $85-$90. If talks collapse, back to $110+. Gas in holding pattern, storage builds large, demand soft, prices stable. Capital preservation first.

Wednesday, May 20, 2026. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report drops 10:30 AM ET, covering week ended May 15. Previous report (May 13): U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 4.306M barrels to 452.9M barrels for week ended May 8, exceeding analyst forecasts of ~2.0-2.1M barrel draw (bullish signal, tighter supplies). EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects large global oil inventory draws averaging 8.5M barrels/day in Q2 2026 due to Middle East supply disruptions. If today's report shows another draw, crude stays bid; if build, profit-taking possible. Brent expected to average ~$106/bbl in May-June 2026, WTI tracks Brent at discount. EIA now sees 2026 Brent averaging $95, WTI mid-$80s (both revised higher due to geopolitical risk). NATURAL GAS: Storage report Thursday. Working gas in storage 2,290 Bcf (51 Bcf above year-ago, 140 Bcf above five-year average). Henry Hub June contract $2.86-$2.88, limited upside pressure, soft fundamentals, LNG maintenance at Freeport/Golden Pass suppressing demand. Shoulder-season weather supports continued large builds through late May. GEOPOLITICS: Negotiations remain fragile. Trump called off planned Tuesday strike at request of Gulf leaders due to "serious negotiations." Iran insists on retaining Strait control, US wants free commerce. Sticking points: Hormuz control and sanctions relief. Today's EIA report is catalyst. If draws continue, crude stays elevated. If builds appear, pullback possible. Gas in holding pattern, storage builds large, demand soft, prices stable. Capital preservation first.

Tuesday, May 19, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI $102.35-$102.66, bullish momentum intact. RSI 51.27 (neutral, neither overbought nor oversold, room to run). MACD -0.08 (sell signal, mild bearish momentum but broader trend up). STOCHRSI 69 (Buy), Williams %R -35.78 (Buy), Ultimate Oscillator 59.29 (Buy). Overall: Strong Buy. Moving Averages: Most short-term (5/10/20-day) in Buy territory, 50-day mixed. Support: $97-$98 (former resistance, now support on dips), $95, $93.60 (short-term bearish threshold). Resistance: $104 (strong, recently tested), $104-$105 zone, $108-$110. Daily high projection $109.09. Pattern: Bullish momentum targeting $104+, profit-taking possible at resistance. Watch $100-$104 range. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub $3.02-$3.03, near seven-week high. Resistance: $3.024 (20-day Bollinger Band top), April highs near $3.25. Support: $2.888 (prior reactionary high, recent consolidation shelf), $2.680 (top of downward channel), $2.561 (April 14 low), $2.535 (20-day Bollinger Band bottom). Key pivot: $2.85-$2.88 shelf (recently reclaimed with volume on 4H/1H). Price broken above early-May consolidation but facing cooling demand forecasts. Failure to hold above $2.85-$2.90 could shift momentum bearish toward $2.60 zone. 2026 average forecasts: $3.50-$3.80-$5.00 range, strong support near $3.00 channel lower bound. Hotter U.S. weather boosting demand, offset by declining production and LNG maintenance. Crude bullish, gas consolidating near resistance, both watching geopolitical developments.

Monday, May 18, 2026. WTI $100.65-$102, bullish bias intact, uptrend continues. Price above 20/50-day MAs, Strong Buy on daily/weekly, RSI 53-54 (neutral-positive, not overbought). Support $97-$98, $95, $93. Resistance $103-$105, $107-$108, $110-$114. Ascending triangle pattern suggests upside continuation if $100-$102 holds. Geopolitical: Negotiations active but deadlocked, Iran rejected latest US proposal (Trump called "totally unacceptable"), US wants 20-year suspension or 12-15-year moratorium on high-level uranium enrichment, Iran wants enrichment rights/full sanctions relief/Strait control. Project Freedom paused, blockade remains active, minor clashes May 7, Iran conducted attacks in UAE early May, Trump warned of "different route" if talks fail, military options on table. Henry Hub $2.82 (May 11), trading low-to-mid $2.80s, June futures $2.82-$2.96, July $3.04-$3.12, storage ample, weather mild, prices stable. Crude in uptrend, geopolitical premium real, escalation scenario crude $120-150, deal scenario crude $70-80. Gas decoupled, accumulation zone intact, target $4.00+. Capital preservation first.

Friday, May 15, 2026. WEEK 20 RECAP: WTI $97.01 → $100.37 peak → $101.56-$101.68 close. Strong Buy across MAs. Henry Hub $2.847-$2.96, Strong Buy bias. EIA: Crude -2.3M, gasoline -2.5M, distillate -1.3M (tight). Gas storage +63 Bcf (surplus building). Demand strong, refinery utilization 90.1%, LNG exports running. Geopolitical: Negotiations stalled, Iran rejected US proposal, Trump considering reviving Project Freedom, security team met to discuss options, ceasefire on life support. Escalation scenario: crude $120-150, gas $4.50+. Deal scenario: crude $70-80, gas $2.50-2.75. GEOGRAPHIC FEATURE: ALASKA. ANS March 2026: 410,111 bpd (up 0.4% MoM, down 3.74% YoY). Total ANS incl. NGL: 460,555 bpd. Prudhoe Bay: 201,488 bpd crude (80.8% of field, up 3.42% MoM), 249,416 bpd total (up 2.69% MoM). EIA 2026 forecast: ANS 477,000 bpd avg (13% YoY increase, highest since 2018). Alaska crude fetching $5-10/bbl premium on global markets due to Middle East shortages. State pocketing tens of millions monthly in extra revenue. Permanent Fund dividends boosted. Cook Inlet gas production declining sharply, zero LNG exports since 2015, Kenai facility idle. Utilities seeking LNG imports via FSRU. Cook Inlet LNG LLC advancing offshore FSRU import project (resupplies every 30-45 days in winter). Harvest Midstream eyeing imports at idled Kenai terminal by 2028. ALASKA LNG PROJECT: North Slope gas to Cook Inlet export terminal, 807 miles pipeline, $44B+, advanced planning not operational. Governor Dunleavy March 2026 bill proposes alternative tax structure for viability. White House backs tax reform. Phase 1 FID possibly early 2026, full exports years away. Needs 3 MMtpy offtake for FID. Early works/construction eyed for 2026. Environmental concerns: Cook Inlet beluga whales, massive CO2 emissions. Geopolitical: Iran war accelerating Alaska LNG interest, war-induced supply gaps could fast-track project, Trump promoting Alaska gas/oil as counter to Iran energy weaponization, Alaska joins Texas/North Dakota as Hormuz chokepoint hedges. Risk: Rural villages face $10+/gallon diesel, war spikes could trigger survival scenarios, pipeline prospects mixed (optimism vs. investment diversion fears), export insurance hikes. Bottom line: Alaska positioned to benefit massively from prolonged Middle East disruption but vulnerable to rural fuel crisis, investment uncertainty, environmental concerns.

Thursday, May 14, 2026. EIA Natural Gas Storage Report released 10:30 AM ET (week ending May 8). Henry Hub $2.74 (up from $2.66). Consensus forecast +86 Bcf injection, projected inventory ~2,291 Bcf. Latest (week ending May 1): 2,205 Bcf (+63 Bcf), +75 Bcf YoY, +139 Bcf vs. 5-yr avg. Storage in surplus, injection season ongoing, ample inventories pressuring prices. Demand strong, refinery utilization high, LNG exports running. WTI $101.56-$101.68, Strong Buy across MAs (11 Buy signals), RSI 52.67 (neutral), MACD -0.01 (slight bearish divergence), STOCH 57.5 (bullish). Pivot 101.47, support 101.37/101.26/101.16, resistance 101.58/101.68/101.79. Geopolitical: Negotiations stalled, Iran rejected US proposal as "totally unacceptable," Trump considering reviving Project Freedom as part of broader operation, security team met to discuss options (Project Freedom escorts, airstrikes on 25% remaining Iranian targets, Israeli uranium raid), US Treasury sanctioned 3 individuals and 9 entities linked to Iran, Netanyahu held security cabinet, Israel ready to resume attacks anytime. Ceasefire on life support, diplomacy faltering. Escalation scenario: crude $120-150, gas $4.50+. Deal scenario: crude $70-80, gas $2.50-2.75. Capital preservation first.

Wednesday, May 13, 2026. EIA Petroleum Report released 10:30 AM ET (week ending May 8). WTI $101-$110 range. Last week $109.76, prior $105.38. Crude inventories (week ending May 1): -2.3M to 457.2M (1% above 5-yr avg). Refinery inputs 16.0 Mbpd, utilization 90.1%. Gasoline -2.5M (below avg), distillate -1.3M (11% below avg). Tight data, strong demand. Henry Hub $2.917, storage 2,205 Bcf (+63 Bcf), +3.5% YoY, +6.7% vs. 5-yr avg. EIA expects $3.10 Q2/Q3. Geopolitical: US-Iran far apart, Trump rejected Iran proposal, Pentagon costs $29B, Strait traffic down 80-90%, Iran threatens 90% uranium enrichment if Project Freedom resumes. Inflection point: deal or escalation. Escalation scenario: crude $120-150, gas $4.50+. Deal scenario: crude $70-80, gas $2.50-2.75. Capital preservation first.

Tuesday, May 12, 2026. WTI $97.01-$98.25, recent high $100.37. Mixed signals: Investing.com Strong Sell vs. CSFX bullish D1 (price above EMA20/50/200, RSI 54.29). RSI(14) 45.70 (neutral), STOCH 34.42 (sell), MACD 0.42 (buy), Williams %R -90 (oversold). Resistance $98.97/$99.87/$101.04, support $96.90/$95.73/$94.83. CSFX trade: buy $97-99, SL $93.50, TP1 $104, TP2 $108-110. ATR 1.01 (high volatility). Henry Hub $2.847 (+5-6%), spot $2.91, June $2.817 (+2.18%). Strong Buy bias: all 12 MAs buy, 8/9 indicators buy. RSI 63.27 (buy), MACD 0.011 (buy), CCI 164 (buy), Williams %R -14.67 (overbought). Crude mixed, gas strong buy. Geopolitical premium still in market.

Monday, May 11, 2026. BREAKING: Project Freedom paused after 24 hours. Iran claims disabled 4 US vessels (US denies). Trump pitching "Project Freedom Plus" — full expansion to reopen strait if no deal soon. Ball in Tehran's court. WTI $98.38 (EIA May 7), range $95-$101, June futures $95.42 (+0.64%). Henry Hub spot $2.67, Markets Insider $2.83, June futures $2.750 (-0.69%). EIA: commercial crude -2.3M to 457.2M (1% above 5-yr avg), gasoline -2.5M (4% below avg), distillate -1.3M (11% below avg). Downside $70-75 if deal, upside $120-150 if escalation. Negotiations critical. Trade the data.