Debt, Deficits & the Fed’s Next Move

In this episode, Schwab’s Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders and Head of Fixed Income Research and Strategy Collin Martin reflect on the questions they’re hearing most from investors—dominated by geopolitical risks, rising oil prices, inflation, and growing anxiety about U.S. debt and deficits. They explain why concerns about a “tipping point” for Treasuries or the dollar have not shown up in historical data—and why demand for Treasuries remains resilient even as issuance grows. The conversation turns to the Federal Reserve, including what to watch in upcoming congressional hearings for Kevin Warsh and how inflation pressures complicate calls for lower rates or a smaller Fed balance sheet. Liz Ann and Collin also revisit the 60-40 portfolio debate, arguing that shifting inflation dynamics and the end of the “Great Moderation” require more nuanced diversification than simple stock‑bond splits. They close with a look at the Fed’s near‑term focus on inflation over employment, key data releases like core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) and consumer sentiment, and why investors should be cautious about overreacting to headline payroll numbers that are often heavily revised. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions (0426-6VN9) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.