Deep-Sea Nickel, China Squeeze, U.S. Funding Signals (Dmitry Silversteyn)

In this episode, we (Howard & Rodney) sit down with Water Tower Research (WTR) equity analyst Dmitry Silversteyn to unpack the critical minerals landscape for retail investors—what matters now in lithium, nickel, rare earths, and where U.S. policy could steer capital next. We discuss China’s latest export restrictions, the growing focus on onshoring/friend-shoring and processing capacity, and why permitting and downstream infrastructure may be more decisive than simply finding ore in the ground. We also take a measured look at The Metals Company (TMC): what the new PFS implies, execution and permitting risks (including the NOAA pathway), and how partnerships with Allseas, PAMCO (Japan) and Korea Zinc fit into a potential nickel supply solution that avoids high-impact terrestrial mining. Finally, we revisit the lithium market—inventory overhang, price stabilization, and where U.S. dollars may flow across clay, DLE/geothermal, brine, and hard-rock projects—plus the role of government grants, loans, and potential equity stakes in catalyzing private investment. What we cover - China’s export curbs and implications for MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and U.S./Five Eyes supply chains - Why processing capacity (hydroxide/sulfate, magnet materials, etc.) is the bottleneck—and a policy priority - TMC strategy: resource scale, pilot results, PFS assumptions, partnerships, and competitive lead - Key risks: scale-up, offshore uptime/weather, market acceptance, and regulatory timelines - Lithium outlook: demand normalization, pricing, and comparative risk across clay vs. DLE vs. brine vs. hard-rock - How U.S. funding signals (grants/loans/equity) can de-risk first-of-a-kind projects and crowd in private capital Guest Dmitry Silversteyn, Equity Analyst, Water Tower Research — chemical/process engineering background and two decades in equity research (coverage across TMC, Albemarle, SQM/FMC/Livent, and broader battery materials). Mentions & tickers (non-exhaustive) LAC, ALB, SQM, MP, TMC, ABAT, PLL, SGML, LIRC (TSX), plus references to Korea Zinc, Allseas, PAMCO and various U.S./Canadian/Australian lithium and graphite names. Sponsors - Lithium Royalty Corp (TSX: LIRC) — diversified lithium royalty portfolio. (Website: https://www.lithiumroyaltycorp.com/ | X: https://x.com/Lithium_Royalty) - USCF Investments — commodity-focused ETFs (e.g., CPER copper, ZSB battery metals, USG gold, SDCI diversified commodities). (Website: https://www.uscfinvestments.com/ | X: https://x.com/USCFInvestments) Chapters (00:00) Introduction (02:40) Dmitry's Background & WTR (05:49) China Export Curbs & Processing (09:06) Onshoring vs. Friend-Shoring (14:28) Government Role: Permits & Funding (15:59) First-Of-A-Kind & Equity (18:23) TMC Overview & Offshore Analogy (19:06) TMC PFS: Key Takeaways (22:31) Nickel Outlook & Indonesia (24:37) Processing: PAMCO & Korea Zinc (27:06) Policy Tailwinds & Backers (28:43) TMC's Lead Over Rivals (31:20) Key Risks & Acceptance (34:20) Permitting & Timeline (37:45) TMCs Funding Path (41:28) Lithium Market Reset (47:29) U.S. Lithium: Paths & Capital Links - Read Matt's research blog: https://blog.rkequity.com/ - Sign up for the Lithium-Ion Bull newsletter: https://rkequity.com/ Have a question? Drop us an email: [email protected] Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel Podcast:   Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172   Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq X (Twitter):   Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull   Rodney: https://x.com/RodneyHooper13   Matt: https://x.com/matt_fernley _________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH Rodney and Howard are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity’s website https://www.rkequity.com Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein