Deficits Are Forcing the Fed Back Into Expansion

What this episode covers

In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to explain how tariffs “slow the train but don’t stop it,” why the Fed’s rate hikes are disconnected from the true inflation source, and how Fed balance sheet expansion is returning. We also discuss the labor cracks, the hidden redistribution of interest income to wealthy savers, and the next phase of the debasement trade. Enjoy! __ Follow Lyn: https://x.com/LynAldenContact Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:35) Tariffs & the Fiscal Outlook (09:13) The Flow of Interest Payments (12:49) Grayscale Ad (13:27) Government Shutdown Impact (15:36) Fiscally-Dominant Economies (19:51) Measuring Economic Weakness (22:49) The State of the Labor Market (26:09) Grayscale Ad (26:56) Should the Fed Cut? (30:56) How We Fight Inflation (34:18) The Fed Balance Sheet (41:20) Past vs Present Funding Constraints (45:06) Fed Balance Sheet & Liquidity (48:43) Active Treasury Issuance (51:20) The Fed & Bank Liquidity (53:03) The Debasement Trade (57:54) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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Frequently Asked Questions

How long is this episode of Forward Guidance?

This episode is 58 minutes long.

When was this Forward Guidance episode published?

This episode was published on October 29, 2025.

What is this episode about?

In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to explain how tariffs “slow the train but don’t stop it,” why the Fed’s rate hikes are disconnected from the true inflation source, and how Fed balance sheet expansion is returning. We also discuss the...

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