Deleveraging in Bitcoin (Crypto) Will NOT Save Christmas!

#Bitcoin #Crypto #deleveraging #bearish #ugly #bull #weakness #stocks #investors #AI#USDA #soybeans #China #Brazil #corm #ethanol #crush #NVDA #Blackwell #GPU #phosphate #biofuel #beef #coffee#CFTC #funds The rapid decline in Bitcoin down 58% is resulting in a “risk off” sentiment and the deleveraging could see a break below support at $80,000 (a double top on the daily chart is bearish). The daily chart is ugly as is the weekly chart. Bitcoin has broken the long-term channel bull. The weakness has spilled over into stocks as investors sell high risk stocks like in the AI crowd as they worry that the growth rates are unsustainable. With the U.S. government reopen we did finally start seeing daily flash USDA sales of U.S. soybeans to China and our tracker has China at 15% of the 12 mmt by yearend. But this is more about politics/economics not who is more competitive the U.S. or Brazil. U.S. domestic corn, ethanol and soybean crush demand remains red hot! U.S. corn and wheat exports are the best in the past 10 years while U.S. soybean exports remain the worse in the last 10 years. The highly anticipated NVDA 3rd quarter earnings did not disappoint as revenues are accelerating with the new Blackwell chip. Demand is off the charts and NVDA GPU chips are sold out until the end of 2026. This does not include Chinese demand nor any new UAE sales. Investors remain concerned that this growth is unsustainable. This is till the beginning not the end not a mature industry. BIG PICTURE remains unchanged. There is a growing concern about Brazil’s soybean planting pace falling behind from irregular rains. Ther Trump administration lowered tariffs on MAP, DAP and potash a WIN for farmers, but we still need China a major phosphate exporter to release more supplies and lessen the pain moving forward. The Trump administration delaying the biofuel import credit cuts on biofuels will weigh on soyoil futures but may have also put in a near-term ceiling in soybeans as we need to constantly feed the bull. Trump promised to wage a war on high U.S. beef prices and finally removed the 40% tariffs on coffee and beef. The daily chart looks ugly on live and feeder cattle futures, but the weekly chart shows a correction in a long-term bull market. Today’s cattle of feed report reminded everyone that fundamentals remain very tight. The backward-looking CFTC (Commitment of Traders Report) showed the funds were still short the grain complex but after the rally in the ag commodities in futures in October we know that they have been buying. We estimate the funds are long soybean futures anywhere between 100,000 top 160,000 vs. record long 253,000 in 2012.