Demystifying Prediction Markets Beyond Volume Charts

In today’s episode, we're unpacking what’s really driving prediction markets and how to think about them as information and distribution systems, not just gambling venues.We discuss:Polymarket vs Kalshi: onchain vs offchain tradeoffsDistribution advantages and partnershipsLiquidity, market making, and arbitrage dynamicsWhy volume alone is misleadingSports betting vs long-duration marketsFees, incentives, and wash trading concernsU.S. regulation and launch implicationsPrediction markets as news and truth-discovery toolsThe long arc from Augur to todayAnd much more—enjoy! — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:50) Prediction markets return (05:16) Offchain vs onchain (09:37) Kalshi distribution edge (13:23) US legality questions (17:50) Market timing mechanics (22:19) Market creation debates (30:19) API delays and arbitrage (32:55) Liquidity and market makers (34:27) User growth questions (36:00) Prediction markets as news (39:11) From Augur to now (40:07) Outro —Content links:Dashboard:https://dune.com/datadashboards/prediction-marketshttps://brier.fyi/https://calibration.city/calibrationSlides: https://bit.ly/45Hlzxa —Content links:Jobs board: https://bit.ly/4sEVMj3—NEW: Join the Indexed Pod group chat:https://t.me/+Jmox7c6mB8AzOWU0— Follow the guest: https://x.com/hobey—Follow the co-hosts:https://x.com/hildobby https://x.com/0xBoxer https://x.com/sui414Follow the Indexed Podcast:https://x.com/indexed_pod — The Indexed Podcast discusses hot topics, trendy metrics and chart crimes in the crypto industry, with a new episode every 1st and 3rd Thursday of the month, brought to you by wizards @hildobby @0xBoxer @sui414.Subscribe/follow the show and leave a comment to help us grow the show! —DISCLAIMER: All information presented here should not be relied upon as legal, financial, investment, tax or even life advice. The views expressed in the podcast are not representative of hosts' employers views. We are acting independently of our respective professional roles.