DHS Shutdown, Iran War & Texas Senate Race w/ Chuck Rocha

Can a progressive Democrat win statewide in deep-red Texas? And what happens when bipartisan political strategists debate everything from the DHS shutdown to gas prices during an active war? This episode delivers both. You'll discover the inside story of James Tallarico's surprisingly energetic Texas Senate campaign from the strategist who helped engineer it. Chuck Rocha—the union organizer turned top Democratic consultant who worked on Bernie Sanders' campaign and Ruben Gallego's successful Senate run—breaks down why this race might be different. He reveals internal polling showing Tallarico leading both potential Republican opponents, explains the 30% of Democratic primary voters with no prior Democratic voting history, and discusses the 12% who switched from Republican primaries. But Rocha also addresses the elephant in the room: can a candidate with progressive positions on issues like transgender rights win in conservative Texas? Before the main interview, co-hosts Ashley Davis (Republican strategist) and Dave Spencer (Democratic analyst) spar over the DHS shutdown with spring break approaching and terrorism chatter at post-9/11 highs. Ashley argues both parties share blame for leaving TSA agents and Coast Guard members unpaid over what boils down to whether ICE agents should wear masks. Dave counters that Democrats have repeatedly offered to fund everything except ICE while Republicans hold national security hostage for leverage. The debate gets heated and reveals the frustration both sides feel about government dysfunction. The Iran war discussion proves equally contentious. With gas prices spiking after Israel's strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure—which prompted Iranian retaliation against Gulf state facilities, potentially reducing Qatar's natural gas output by 20% for years—the political implications are massive. Ashley and Dave disagree on whether Trump can extract himself from the conflict before it becomes a political liability, with Dave arguing the President has become "Netanyahu's vice president" and Ashley maintaining he has a few more weeks before voters lose patience. When Chuck Rocha joins, the conversation shifts to what makes a candidate viable in hostile territory. Dave presses him on whether Tallarico needs a "Sister Souljah moment"—a high-profile break with his party on a controversial issue to prove he's not a typical Democrat. Rocha pushes back, arguing that most voters care less about policy positioning than authenticity and whether a candidate understands their daily struggles with bills and gas prices. He explains why the Obama-like enthusiasm around Tallarico in Democratic circles might actually translate to general election success, unlike previous Texas Democratic hopefuls like Beto O'Rourke. You'll also learn about the new campaign infrastructure Democrats are building in Texas, including the role of social media influencer Carlos Eduardo Espina, and why Rocha believes the combination of an off-year election, opposition party energy, economic anxiety, and a uniquely authentic candidate creates the perfect storm for an upset. The discussion covers whether Tallarico faces an easier path against controversial AG Ken Paxton or establishment figure John Cornyn, and how Trump's involvement could change the dynamics entirely. Chuck Rocha is a senior political consultant and founder of Solidarity Strategies, known for his expertise in Latino voter outreach. A former factory worker and union organizer from East Texas who never attended college, Rocha has become one of the Democratic Party's most sought-after strategists. He's the author of "Tío Bernie" and has been instrumental in numerous successful campaigns including Bernie Sanders' presidential runs, Ruben Gallego's Arizona Senate victory, and now James Tallarico's Texas Senate campaign. Key topics covered throughout this episode: • Internal polling and voter demographics in the Texas Senate race • Whether progressive candidates can win in conservative states • The DHS shutdown standoff over ICE policies during spring break • Iran war implications for gas prices and the 2026 midterms • The Sister Souljah moment debate and party positioning • New campaign tactics including social media influencers • Why the 2026 cycle might be different for Texas Democrats • Terrorism threats and intelligence community concerns • The politics of war funding and Trump's $200 billion request Connect with Chuck Rocha on social media and learn more about his work at Solidarity Strategies.