第1994期:Study: Part of Antarctica to Experience Unavoidable Melt

A new study says that no matter how much the world cuts back on carbon emissions, a large and important part of Antarctica is expected to disappear. 一项新的研究表明，无论世界减少多少碳排放，南极洲的大部分重要地区都将消失。 Researchers used computer models to predict the future melting of protective ice around Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea in western Antarctica. They said the “unavoidable” melting will take hundreds of years. It will slowly add nearly 1.8 meters to sea levels. And it will be enough to reshape where and how people live in the future. 研究人员利用计算机模型预测了南极洲西部阿蒙森海周围保护性冰的未来融化情况。他们表示，“不可避免”的融化将需要数百年的时间。海平面将缓慢上升近1.8米。这足以重塑人们未来的居住地点和生活方式。 The study was published recently in Nature Climate Change. It found that even if future warming was limited to just a few tenths of a degree more, it would have “limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.” 该研究最近发表在《自然·气候变化》杂志上。研究发现，即使未来的变暖幅度仅限于零点几度，“防止海洋变暖导致西南极冰盖崩塌的能力也有限”。 Many scientists say the goal of just a few tenths of a degree of warming is unlikely to be met. 许多科学家表示，将气温升高零点几度的目标不太可能实现。“Our main question here was: How much control do we still have over ice shelf melting? How much melting can still be prevented by reducing emissions?” said study lead writer Kaitlin Naughten. She is an expert on oceans at the British Antarctic Survey. “我们的主要问题是：我们对冰架融化还有多少控制力？通过减少排放还可以防止多少融化？” 研究主要作者凯特琳·诺顿说。她是英国南极调查局的海洋专家。 She said their research suggests that Earth is set on the path to a quick increase in the rate of ocean warming and ice shelf melting over the rest of the century. 她说，他们的研究表明，在本世纪剩余时间内，地球将走上海洋变暖和冰架融化速度迅速加快的道路。 While past studies have talked about how serious the situation is, Naughten was the first to use computer modeling to study how warm water from below will melt the ice. 虽然过去的研究已经讨论了情况的严重性，但诺顿是第一个使用计算机模型来研究来自下面的温水如何融化冰的人。 The study looked at four different cases in how much carbon emissions the world produces. In each case, ocean warming was just too much for this area of the ice to survive, the study found. 该研究考察了世界碳排放量的四种不同情况。研究发现，在每种情况下，海洋变暖都导致该区域的冰无法生存。 Naughten looked at melting, floating areas of ice that hold back glaciers. Once these areas of ice melt, there is nothing to stop the glaciers behind them from flowing into the sea. 诺顿观察了正在融化、漂浮的冰块，这些冰块阻碍了冰川的形成。一旦这些区域的冰融化，就没有什么可以阻止它们后面的冰川流入大海。 The study also looked at what would happen if future warming was limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius over mid-19th century levels: the international goal. They found the runaway melting process in this case as well. 该研究还研究了如果未来气温升高限制在 19 世纪中叶水平的 1.5 摄氏度之内会发生什么：国际目标。他们在这种情况下也发现了失控的熔化过程。 The world has already warmed about 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times and much of this summer went past the 1.5 degrees mark. 自前工业化时代以来，全球气温已经升高了约 1.2 摄氏度，今年夏天的大部分时间都超过了 1.5 摄氏度。 Naughten’s study looked at the part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that is most at risk from melting from below, near the Amundsen Sea. It includes the very large Thwaites ice shelf that is melting so fast it is called “the Doomsday Glacier.”诺顿的研究着眼于西南极冰盖中阿蒙森海附近最有可能从下方融化的部分。它包括非常大的思韦茨冰架，该冰架融化速度如此之快，被称为“世界末日冰川”。 That part of Antarctica “is doomed,” said University of California Irvine ice scientist ice scientist Eric Rignot. He was not part of the study. He added, “The damage has already been done.” 加州大学欧文分校的冰科学家埃里克·里格诺特（Eric Rignot）表示，南极洲的这一部分“注定要灭亡”。他没有参与这项研究。他补充说：“损害已经造成了。” Naughten does not like to use the word “doomed,” because she said 100 years from now, the world might not just stop but drive back carbon levels in the air and climate change. But she said what is happening now on the ground is a slow collapse that cannot be stopped, at least not in this century. 诺顿不喜欢使用“注定”这个词，因为她说，100年后，世界可能不仅会停止，还会降低空气中的碳水平和气候变化。但她表示，目前正在发生的事情正在缓慢崩溃，无法阻止，至少在本世纪无法阻止。