EPISODE · Nov 5, 2025 · 5 MIN
第20章:对模型的合理使用与滥用
from 创业的极端不确定性
模型不是真相只是「人类在极端不确定时」拿来暂时获得安全感与秩序感的工具。真正会让人、让投资组合、让企业爆掉的从来不是模型本身是「过度相信模型」。美国把模型拿去卖未来大陆把模型拿去打胜仗 SOP台湾把模型拿去理解世界三边同一个问题都忽略了——模型永远漏算人性。赢家不是模型算最准的人而是知道模型失效边界能最快 re-route pivot直接可落地的小规则（本章 MVP Takeaway）每天做决策前问一题：「这模型没有算进去的 X 是谁？」那个 X = 人性 → 就是你赚超额回报的地方。在小宇宙查看该单集文稿
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第20章:对模型的合理使用与滥用
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