Diachronic Dutch Book Arguments for Forgetful Agents

Alistair M. C. Isaac (University of Michigan) gives a talk at the MCMP Colloquium titled "Diachronic Dutch Book Arguments for Forgetful Agents". Abstract: I present a general strategy for applying diachronic Dutch book arguments to bounded agents, with particular focus on forgetful agents. Dutch book arguments were introduced by subjectivists about probability to test the consistency of synchronic epistemic norms. Diachronic Dutch book arguments (DDBs) apply this technique to test the consistency of diachronic epistemic norms, norms about how beliefs change in time. Examples like forgetfulness have led some to doubt the relevance of DDBs for evaluating diachronic norms. I argue that there is no problem in applying DDBs to formally specified decision problems involving forgetfulness. The real worry here is whether these formal problems capture the relevant details of real world decision-making situations. I suggest some general criteria for making this assessment and defend the formalization of decision problems involving bounded agents, and their investigation via DDBs, as essential tools for evaluating epistemic norms.