EPISODE · Apr 24, 2026 · 40 MIN
Do Your Politics Affect How You Bet?
from Universal Basic Kalshi Guys · host Evan Mandery
The UBK Gang examines whether political identity quietly shapes the way people bet on prediction markets, and whether platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are as ideologically neutral as they claim to be. The research says they're not. A study of 1.8 million Polymarket betting records found that political leanings directly translate into economic outcomes. Researchers call it "wishful thinking bias." The gang discusses how to use this to effect to shape investment strategy.
What this episode covers
The UBK Gang examines whether political identity quietly shapes the way people bet on prediction markets, and whether platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are as ideologically neutral as they claim to be. The research says they're not. A study of 1.8 million Polymarket betting records found that political leanings directly translate into economic outcomes. Researchers call it "wishful thinking bias." The gang discusses how to use this to effect to shape investment strategy.
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Do Your Politics Affect How You Bet?
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