Universal Basic Kalshi Guys

The UBK Gang take a first look at the 2028 Democratic primary, and explores the fundamental dynamics of a race in which Democrats face an incumbent, term-limited Republican president. Part 1 focuses on an examination of the long shot candidates -- those trading at five cents or less -- including Ruben Gallego, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Andy Beshear.

The UBK Gang examines whether political identity quietly shapes the way people bet on prediction markets, and whether platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are as ideologically neutral as they claim to be. The research says they're not. A study of 1.8 million Polymarket betting records found that political leanings directly translate into economic outcomes. Researchers call it "wishful thinking bias." The gang discusses how to use this to effect to shape investment strategy.

The UBK Gang explores the Kalshi market on whether Donald Trump will run for a third term – a question that sits at the intersection of prediction markets, constitutional law, and the political psychology of the MAGA movement. The market is not simply a vet betting vehicle; it's a real-time barometer on how seriously traders take the erosion of constitutional norms under this administration.

Someone turned $2.1 million into $21 million on S&P options minutes before Trump's tariff pause. Six Polymarket accounts pocketed $1.2M in the hours before Israeli strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader. The Pam Bondi cabinet departure market jumped 18 points in a single session — before any public announcement.Is this insider trading? Probably. Can anyone prosecute it? That's where it gets complicated.The UBK Gang breaks down the legal gap that makes prediction market insider trading almost impossible to prosecute, why Kalshi and Polymarket are in very different positions despite being painted with the same brush, and the growing legislative avalanche on Capitol Hill trying to fix it.Plus — Mike's trader framework for turning the insider noise into a usable signal, even if you don't have a White House contact, and Evan's tips for navigating the markets despite not having an insider's advantage.

This morning, the President of the United States threatened to erase an entire civilization from the face of the earth. Tonight, he announced a 2-week ceasefire — 90 minutes before his own deadline. We break down every piece of today's chaos, put it in full context, and make the case for why this is one of the most important and under-reported stories in modern American history.We are 38 days into a war most Americans didn't know they were fighting. Operation Epic Fury launched on February 28th — a coordinated US and Israeli strike campaign targeting Iran's military infrastructure, missile sites, nuclear program, and naval capabilities. Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated. 13 American service members are dead. 365 are wounded. And the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway that carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply — has been effectively blockaded ever since.Oil is sitting at $110-114 a barrel. Goldman Sachs is warning of $147. JPMorgan says $150 is possible if the Strait stays shut into May. That's not a Wall Street abstraction — that's gas prices, grocery bills, airline tickets, and supply chains hitting every American household simultaneously.And today, after threatening "a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again," Trump announced a 2-week pause. Amir's argument: that's not a win. That's a blink.Here's what gets covered:The full minute-by-minute timeline of today — from the morning nuclear rhetoric to the ceasefire announcement and what Iran actually agreed toOperation Epic Fury from the beginning — the stated objectives, the actual outcomes, and the comparison to Venezuela that turned out to be dangerously wrongIran's 10-point peace proposal — what's in it, why Trump called it "not good enough," and what it tells us about where Iran actually stands after 38 days of US and Israeli bombingThe Israel thread — Marco Rubio admitted on the record that the timing of US strikes was influenced by Israeli plans. Netanyahu has been pushing for this war for 18 years. This is an Israeli election year. Analysts across the board are saying this war benefits Israel far more than it benefits the United States. We go there.Why the ceasefire is a strategic loss for Trump — the bluff was called, the leverage has eroded, every adversary watching (China, Russia, North Korea) just clocked that the United States blinked at its own deadlineThe democratic accountability question — did the American people consent to a war shaped in significant part by a foreign government's military timeline? When was that debate?What to watch over the next 14 days: the Hormuz data, Pakistan's mediating role, Israel's next move, Iran's internal power vacuum after Khamenei's death, and the five signals that will tell you whether this holds or collapsesThe ceasefire bought time. It resolved nothing. In two weeks, the clock runs out — and Trump will be negotiating from a position where everyone now knows he blinked once. That matters.We didn't vote for this war. We deserve to understand it.Subscribe and hit the bell — new episodes every week covering the geopolitical and market stories that actually move the world.Drop your questions and takes in the comments. Where do you think this goes in 14 days?

Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2, 2026 — and a now $2.5 million market has emerged on who comes next. On this episode of Universal Basic Kalshi Guys, Evan and Amir break down the Kalshi market for Trump's next Attorney General, walk through the leading candidates, assess their real probabilities, and ask the question the market is actually pricing: what does Trump want from the DOJ right now?We cover: — Why Bondi was fired and what it signals about Trump's priorities at DOJ — Lee Zeldin (EPA Administrator, ~58% on Kalshi): the frontrunner, the reporting behind his lead, and why the market trusts him — Todd Blanche (Acting AG, ~27%): Trump's former personal lawyer and the path-of-least-resistance pick — Mike Lee (Senator, Utah, ~8%): the constitutional conservative who said he's not going anywhere — and whether the market should believe him — Ken Paxton, Harmeet Dhillon, Jay Clayton, and the rest of the field — How to think about this market analytically: what each candidate choice signals about the direction of the next two years of DOJ — The Kalshi vs. Polymarket divergence and what it tells you about contract structureKalshi market: kxnextag-29 | Recorded April 5, 2026Universal Basic Kalshi Guys is a podcast about prediction markets, political forecasting, and the intersection of markets and current events. New episodes drop regularly. Like and subscribe for more.

The UBK Gang assesses the floor of Donald Trump's approval rating and value plays for the midterm elections. Every president hits turbulence — but is Trump approaching a true political floor, or is there further to fall? In this episode, the UBK Gang breaks down the latest polling data, examines the structural limits of Trump's approval rating, and asks the question every political strategist is gaming out right now: what does a depressed presidential approval mean for down-ballot races in the midterms?From swing-district House races to key Senate battlegrounds, the crew identifies where the political landscape is shifting — and where smart observers should be paying attention. Whether you're a political junkie, a casual news follower, or just trying to make sense of the chaos, this is your essential breakdown of where things stand and what's coming next.Subscribe for weekly political breakdowns · Like if you found this useful · Drop your predictions in the comments.

The UBK Gang discusses the $12 million market for whether the US government will confirm the existence of aliens--one of the biggest non-sports markets on Kalshi.

The UBK Guys define lock propositions, identify their top 10 locks for the remainder of the year, and discuss how to create a diversified value portfolio.

The UBK Gang uses the markets for season 22 of The Bachelorette as a launching point for discussing emerging markets and efforts to quantify the risks of insider trading.

The UBK Guys analyze markets relating to the Iran war, including the chance of democratization and reopening of the American embassy.

Special guest Dan Bubbeo of Newsday joins the UBK Guys to preview the markets for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Director with an eye to value.

The UBK Guys recap their positions on the shutdown, discuss the difference between gambling and investing, and analyze the open markets for the remaining cases of the Supreme Court 2025-26 term including transgender sports bans, weakening of the Voting Rights Act, and banning of mail order ballots.

The UBK Guys review their State of the Union bets including a discussion of the bandwagon effect and assess the government shutdown market.

Value propositions in the markets for who's going to attend the State of the Union address 2K26 and what DJT is likely to say. (Spoiler: We're short on Musk!)