Does Forecasting Have Room At The Top? - By Scott Alexander

Can AI forecasters become dramatically better than the best humans, or are we already close to the limits of predictability? Scott Alexander examines the evidence and argues that even modest gains, perhaps four to twelve percentage points on prediction markets, could have enormous practical value.* 00:00 - Introduction* 02:07 - Slightly Contra Goel, Reeves, et al* 08:18 - Applying The Non-Miracle Rule To Geopolitics* 11:34 - Anchors For Possible Non-Miraculous Gains* 18:42 - So What?This has been an Askwho Casts audio conversion. If you would like your own private feed of audio conversions of any blog posts you would like to listen to, You can sign up For Askwho Casts Pro at https://app.askwhocasts.com/, Where you can give any post the multi-voiced podcast treatment, into your own podcast feed. Thanks for listening. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/does-forecasting-have-room-at-the Get full access to Askwho Casts AI at askwhocastsai.substack.com/subscribe