Does Trump Have a Grand Strategy?

Over the past week, the U.S. President Trump has visited Asia, with Malaysia as his first stop, followed by Japan, and concluding in South Korea, where he met with the Chinese supreme leader. This Asian tour offers a valuable opportunity to observe U.S. foreign policy and strategy.Undoubtedly, Trump is an unconventional U.S. president. Whether his second-term foreign policy is underpinned by a grand strategic logic or driven by transactional thinking and short-term gains remains a matter of debate. Skeptics argue that Trump lacks strategic vision, relying on instincts to navigate international relations while prioritizing personal relations over systematic approach. John Bolton, Trump’s National Security Advisor during his first term, espouses this view. Supporters, however, contend that Trump possesses a grand strategy and is vigorously implementing it.Yet even among these supporters, there is no consensus on what grand strategy Trump actually pursues. Three prominent arguments exist: First, the “Priority Strategy,” where Trump seeks to shed burdens in Europe and the Middle East to focus entirely on countering China in the Indo-Pacific. Second, the “Sphere of Influence” theory, positing that Trump no longer pursues global hegemony but instead divides spheres of influence with China and Russia—China controlling Asia, Russia controlling Eastern and Central Europe, and the U.S. controlling Western Europe and the Americas. Third, the “Isolationist” view, suggesting the U.S. withdraws from the world stage to concentrate on domestic matters.By examining Trump’s recent tour of Asia, we can empirically evaluate these diverse opinions, thereby acquiring a more precise, nuanced, and thorough comprehension of his prospective foreign policy over the coming 3 years.For video, please visit:https://youtu.be/IWTMHz_eYTAor https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Fh1YB3EWr This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit hybridtalk.substack.com