Don't buy property in this market...

It is true that buying a property in any market will generate a lot of wealth as long as you (1) buy the right property and (2) hold it for a few decades. But it is also true that you do not need to rush into the market at the risk of substantially overpaying.My wife and I planned to buy an investment property this year so we have been monitoring the property market a bit closer than usual this year. Of course, we expect to pay fair market value for a high-quality asset (quality assets rarely sell for less). But we have no interest in overpaying. We are happy to wait on the sidelines until we are able to buy an investment-grade property for a fair price.What we have noticed this year is that overpaying is almost the only way to successfully purchase a property – sometimes by more than 10%! I wanted to discuss (speculate) why this might be happening and counsel property buyers to be patient and diligent.Is demand greater than supply?It was my initial hypothesis that a lack of supply was responsible for driving property prices higher. That is, that the volume of property buyers exceeds the volume of properties available for sale.The graphic below include property listing charts for a selection of locations from the beginning of 2010 to date. You will note that property listings in some locations are well below trend, particularly coastal regions. This supports my theory that tight supply is pushing prices higher. However, as you will observe, there are some locations where listing volumes appear to be normal.Chart: https://www.prosolution.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Property-listings-summary.jpg Of course, we must remind ourselves that listing volumes (supply) is only one half of the equation. Demand is the other half. It could be that whilst supply is normal, demand could be above average.Demand is very highProbably the best indicator for demand is the volume of new mortgages, as depicted in the chart below from the ABS.Chart: https://www.prosolution.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/New-loan-commitments-total-housing-seasonally-adjusted-values-Australia.jpegThe average monthly volume of home loans between 2015 and 2020 was $13.4 billion. This year, the average monthly volume has increased by a whopping 66% to $22.2 billion. By comparison, investor loans have increased by just over 9%. I think we can conclude that demand for property is substantially above average.As such, whilst supply (listings) is normal in some locations, there’s not enough property for sale to satisfy the strong level of demand and as a result, prices are rising.Why is demand so high?Many Australians, particularly higher income earners, are spending less and saving more due to the impact of Covid. This is reflected in the household savings ratio which is at the highest level since the data series began in 1973! This relative improvement in household financial strength might be encouraging more homeowners to spend more money on their home e.g. upgrade or renovate.Historically loMy new book is available for pre-order now: Pre-ordering the book will help me get it into bookstores. So please do me a favour - please consider pre-ordering now - links and pre-order bonus are available here: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at [email protected]. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.