Don't short the break higher (#469)

Simon Shares

• Iron ore below US$100. Kumba (JSE code: KIO) halved since July highs.
  • And still falling.
  • But Q3 sales were at US$180 / tonne and even at current lows likely they get US$150 / tonne for the second half. Mid-year cost per tonne was US$26 and sale price US$165 / tonne. So the share is pricing in horror stories which likely aren't true fr the full year ending December. BUT next year will be different and you don't try to catch falling knives, wait for a confirmed reversal.
• Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) trading update, really weak.
• Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) trading update, really strong.
• Strong PPC (JSE code: PPC) update.
• Local inflation came in at 5%, the fourth month we're below US inflation and likely we'll see no change at MPC on Thursday.

* I hold ungeared positions.

[caption id="attachment_31691" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Top40 daily[/caption]

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