Don’t Take Away the Punchbowl – Markets, Momentum & Memorial Day

The headlines this week weren't pretty. The 10-year Treasury neared 4.70%, oil stubbornly parked at $110 a barrel, PPI came in hotter than expected, and equity markets wobbled again. Against that backdrop, Manus Clancy makes a contrarian call worth hearing: this is the moment to deploy capital, not run for the exits. With CMBS yields reaching levels not seen in years and bond spreads widening across the curve, for investors with conviction and dry powder, the entry point hasn't looked this attractive in years. The conversation also explores growing speculation around future Fed rate hikes, why higher energy prices are complicating the inflation picture, and whether the market is overreacting to a crisis driven more by geopolitics than underlying economic weakness. In Manus's words, the Fed raising rates now wouldn't just be taking away the punchbowl. It would be serving up a dose of castor oil. Meanwhile, the mood at ICSC in Las Vegas supports the thesis that the market has made its peace with higher-for-longer rates, with fundamentals backing optimism in retail. With new supply at a decade low, asking rents ticking up, and over $9 billion in Q1 retail deals in the LightBox Transaction Tracker, activity is focused on growth targets like open-air centers, grocery-anchored retail, and urban luxury. LightBox data and market reporting also point to a shifting landscape in office. Construction activity has fallen to a 14-year low while office listings climbed 35% quarter over quarter, setting the stage for a broader market reset. The team breaks down major office headlines including Miami office rents surpassing $200 per square foot, Nashville's second-largest office sale ever, a $1.9 billion refinancing at 2 Manhattan West, and signs that office-to-resi conversions are accelerating nationwide. The through-line of this week's episode is a market that refuses to be paralyzed. Low construction across retail, industrial, and office is tightening supply and creating tailwinds for existing stock. Capital is moving from metros like LA to Charlotte to Chicago. As we head into Memorial Day weekend, the market isn't euphoric, but it isn't frozen either. It's finding its footing. Stay to the end for a nostalgic Memorial Day Slice of Life featuring above-ground pool openings, dusty garage summer rentals in the Hamptons, and a few painful childhood memories involving castor oil and bars of soap. 01:41 Bond Buying Opportunity05:16 Fed Hike Debate09:20 ICSC Retail Buzz14:40 Office Data Dive17:41 Miami Rent Shock21:13 Deals Making Headlines26:18 Development Bright Spots Have questions for the pod team? Send them to [email protected] us Fan Mailwww.lightboxre.com