“Dutch-book resistant probability over centered worlds” by jessicata

An uncentered world is an objective state of the material universe; I ignore quantum complications. If you know the uncentered world, it does not follow that you can predict your proximate observations, since you do not know which part of the uncentered world is here and now. A centered world is an uncentered world combined with a "here and now" tag for "where am I / what time is it". I examine consistent probability assignments over centered worlds, which have relevance to anthropics. The main assumption I make is that these probabilities should not be Dutch-bookable if used by a CDT agent. Dutch book arguments (e.g. diachronic Dutch book arguments for Bayesian updating) typically assume CDT in the background; it is not straightforward to work out which bets EDT will accept in general. CDT Dutch book resistance therefore provides a normative probability framework that generalizes arguments for Bayesian probability. Thought experiments such as Sleeping Beauty, and variants involving duplication, question how to assign probabilities to centered worlds in situations involving memory loss. One can analogize memory loss to being an individual who is part of a collective with shared goals; such an individual would be motivated to [...] ---Outline:(02:46) Mathematical formulation(07:04) Application to Sleeping Beauty(09:01) Conclusion(11:30) Appendix: weak Dutch books --- First published: August 8th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cTSfisyzwxCvEpqEc/dutch-book-resistant-probability-over-centered-worlds --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.