E10: Prediction markets are a trillion dollar opportunity. Why aren’t they working yet?

This week on The Riff, Erik and Byrne talk about why you should ignore the 2024 presidential election news cycle, the barriers to the success of prediction markets, why the United States can't be a net exporter, and more. The Riff is sponsored by Shopify: https://shopify.com/momentofzen for a $1/month trial period. --- The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: https://turpentine.co --- Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we cover better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv --- We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. --- Thanks to our sponsor: SHOPIFY Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of all e-commerce in the US. And Shopify’s the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy’s, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries. From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you’re selling, Shopify’s got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/momentofzen --- LINKS: Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: @eriktorenberg (Erik) @byrnehobart (Byrne) @turpentinemedia (Turpentine) --- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:50) Byrne talks about why we should ignore stuff about politics for this 2024 election (07:35) The underrated impact of either a Biden or Trump presidency (12:12) The barriers to the success of prediction markets (16:27) Sponsor | Shopify (18:10) Prediction markets for career success (24:20) The economics of information and the give-to-get model (30:53) Mass adoption of prediction markets (35:35) Why do companies buy expensive headquarters? (45:10) Industry talent cycles (51:32) Russia and China - building economic blocs from net exporters (56:55) Wrap --- The Riff is a production from Turpentine Producer: Sam Kaufman Editor: Seven Morris For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact [email protected]