E128: US-Europe Relations, How Japan Can Strengthen The Yen, and Predicting AI’s Growth Effects w/ Noah Smith

Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith analyze America's European withdrawal, China's selective globalization strategy, and tempers expectations about AI's economic impact while considering GDP measurement challenges.—📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse  —RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Moment of ZenEvery week, Erik Torenbergand frequent special guests discuss what's happening in technology, business, politics, and beyond.Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/15KYOzvDzAQvqX0z0SpHEJ Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moment-of-zen/id1661672738 —SPONSORS:☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world.🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.—RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Weeb Economy: https://bookplus.nikkei.com/atcl/catalog/25/03/02/01880/I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-bookNoahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ —X / TWITTER:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia—HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: U.S.-Europe Relations & Geopolitical Shifts: Examines the U.S. shift away from supporting Europe, debating whether it was exploited or harming its own interests, with Trump’s strength-focused foreign policy potentially pivoting toward Russia, risking economic and intelligence ties with Europe. China's Economic Strategy & Globalization: The Belt and Road Initiative has largely failed, with poorly executed projects and unsustainable debt burdens for recipient countries. India's Industrialization & Economic Future: India needs a major shift in labor dynamics, particularly increasing women's participation in factory work. AI, Economic Growth & the O-Ring Theory: AI’s impact on economic growth is debated—some expect 10% growth, while Noah sees 5% as more realistic. Japan’s Economy & Currency Strength: Japan should push for a new Plaza Accord with the U.S. to strengthen the yen. AI’s Impact on Jobs & Productivity: AI is unlikely to eliminate all jobs but will require major adjustments in industries and legal structures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.