E165: STUDY Shows NFL Favors the Chiefs — Lead Researcher Explains

Finance professor Spencer Barnes explains research showing postseason officiating systematically favors the Mahomes-era Chiefs—consistent with subconscious, financially driven “regulatory capture,” not explicit rigging.Guest bio: Dr. Spencer Barnes is a finance professor at UTEP. He co-authored “Under Financial Pressure” with Brandon Mendez (South Carolina) and Ted Dischman, using sports as a transparent lab to study regulatory capture.Topics discussed (in order):Why the NFL is a clean testbed for regulatory captureData/methods: 13,136 defensive penalties (2015–2023), panel dataset, fixed-effectsPostseason favoritism toward Mahomes-era ChiefsMagnitude and game impact (first downs, yards, FG-margin games)Subjective vs objective penalties (RTP, DPI vs offsides/false start)Regular season vs postseason differencesDynasty checks (Patriots/Brady; Eagles/Rams/49ers)Rigging vs subconscious biasRatings, revenue (~$23B in 2024), media incentivesGambling’s rise post-2018 and bettor implicationsTaylor Swift factor (not tested due to data window)Ref assignment opacity; repeat-crew effectsTech/replay reform ideasBroader finance lesson on incentives and regulationMain points & takeaways:Core postseason result: Chiefs ~20 percentage points more likely than peers to gain a first down from a defensive penalty.Subjective flags: ~30% more likely for KC in playoffs (RTP, DPI).Size: ~4 extra yards per defensive penalty in playoffs—small per play, decisive at FG margins.Regular season: No favorable treatment; slight tilt the other way.Ref carryover: Crews with a prior KC postseason official show more KC-favorable outcomes the next year.Not universal to dynasties: Patriots/Brady and other near-dynasties don’t show the same postseason effect.Mechanism: No claim of rigging; consistent with implicit bias under financial incentives.Policy: Use tech (skycam, auto-checks for false start/offsides), limited challenges for subjective calls, transparent ref advancement.General lesson: When regulators depend financially on outcomes, redesign incentives to reduce capture and protect fairness.Top 3 quotes:“We make no claim the NFL is rigging anything. What we see looks like implicit bias shaped by financial incentives.” — Spencer Barnes“It only takes one call to swing a postseason game decided by a field goal.” — Spencer Barnes“If there’s money on the line, you must design the regulators’ environment so incentives don’t quietly bend enforcement.” — Spencer BarnesLinks/where to find the work: Spencer Barnes on LinkedIn (search: “Spencer Barnes UTEP”); paper Under Financial Pressure in the Financial Review (paywall) and as a free working paper on SSRN (search the title). 🎙 The Pod is hosted by Jesse Wright💬 For guest suggestions, questions, or media inquiries, reach out at https://elpodcast.media/📬 Never miss an episode – subscribe and follow wherever you get your podcasts.⭐️ If you enjoyed this episode, please rate and review the show. It helps others find us. Thanks for listening!