E18: Sam Lessin on What's Going to Happen to VC in 2024

What this episode covers

Today we’re back with Sam Lessin for a round 2 focused on the changing landscape of venture. We dig into the viability of M&A as a strategy for startups, “its always been crypto”, media businesses, and the role of reputation systems. If you need an ecommerce platform, check out our sponsor Shopify: https://shopify.com/momentofzen for a $1/month trial period. --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj --- We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. --- SPONSOR: HARMONIC | SHOPIFY | NETSUITE 🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo. Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of ALL eCommerce in the US. And Shopify's the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy's, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries.From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you're selling, Shopify's got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/momentofzen NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/turpentine and download your own customized KPI checklist. --- Join our free newsletter to get Erik's top 3 insights from each episode: https://turpentinevc.substack.com/ --- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:27) Round 2 with Sam, the VC Doomer (06:24) The mechanism of how low interest rates leads to public markets valuing companies at super high multiples (10:28) Disruption fundamentally changed who the winners and losers would be (15:49) Sponsor - NetSuite (16:50) What would a $100B company look like in 15-20 years (23:20) The emergence of cultural changes after Covid-19 (28:27) The only way to make real money is to be betting differently (36:36) Do franchises go public and the fundamental liquidity question (42:01) What's the best business to build on top of media company? (51:20) Sam's insights on reputation businesses (55:00) Sam's take on advanced reputation system