E77｜再聊预测市场：争议与理想叙事破灭，它是真相发掘机、多巴胺赌场，也是下一代社交网络

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「预测市场和博彩究竟有什么区别？」「V神理想中的公共物品为何注定沦为多巴胺赛场？」「既然内幕交易能逼出真相，那凭什么要禁止？」「做市商为何根本不敢给突发长尾事件定价？没有做市商补贴，预测市场流动性如何解决？」本期播客是去年8月份节目「说透Web3现象级应用：Polymarket之兴与预测市场之争」的延续，我们就预测市场出圈流行之后出现的一些标志性争议问题，进行了进一步讨论。【主播】刘锋，BODL Ventures 合伙人，前链闻总编辑熊浩珺Jack，律动 BlockBeats 副主编，《Web3 无名说》主播【嘉宾】 Leo Zhang，42.space 创始人【你将听到】 00:53 与嘉宾老友重聚，「加密货币现象的本质是什么」小册子值得再读一下 04:13 祛魅「真相机器」：华尔街的动机与散户的狂欢 06:31 「预测市场把极其复杂的衍生品和期权，简化成了散户看得懂、愿意玩的游戏。华尔街喜欢它，是因为需要不断寻找更庞大的猎物群体」 07:53 预测市场有用论被现实打脸，精英的理想国 vs 现实的多巴胺 10:03 学术派的肯定：美联储最新关于Kalshi的实证研究论文 (美联储研究论文) 12:35 斯坦福教授 Andrew Hall 质疑：真正有社会价值的合约交易量极低，但超级碗、明星八卦交易火爆 15:38 Vitalik 失望又如何？预测市场可以成为对冲风险的公共物品，但如果走向理性实用主义，「这个游戏就又变回精英和机构博弈，普通人连上桌表达观点的机会都没有」 18:47 零和博弈下的补贴真相与做市商困局 20:53 现有的 CTF（条件代币框架/订单簿）模式高度依赖平台烧钱补贴做市商 22:57 长尾事件的定价死结，做市商的恐惧只愿为体育、大选等容易建立概率模型的事件做市 26:12 内幕交易对与错：预测市场成了情报菜市场，也成了社会操纵器 36:05 追踪预测市场内幕交易的媒体尝试 39:31 测市场跟博彩有无本质区别？ 42:41 演进与预测市场 3.0：预测市场成为 TikTok 的可能【后期】 AMEI 【运营】朱婕【BGM】 Mumbai - Ooyy 【在这里找到我们】收听渠道：苹果｜小宇宙海外用户：Apple Podcast｜Spotify｜Google Podcast｜Amazon Music 联系我们：[email protected] Guest: Leo Zhang.

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E77｜再聊预测市场：争议与理想叙事破灭，它是真相发掘机、多巴胺赌场，也是下一代社交网络

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