E9: Sam Lessin and Seth Rosenberg Debate: Will AI Favor Incumbents or Start-Ups?

What this episode covers

Sam Lessin, General Partner at Slow Ventures, and Seth Rosenberg, General Partner at Greylock, debate what the effects of AI on incumbents and the next wave of AI-first products will look like. If you’re looking to improve your sourcing, tracking, and due diligence, check out: https://synaptic.com/turpentine We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. --- SPONSORS: 🧲 Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine VC during your demo. Synaptic unifies over one hundred real-time company performance metrics across alternative datasets like user traffic, employee data, app downloads, product reviews, and more. It’s your all-in-one source for alternative data that helps you make better investment decisions. To learn how Synaptic can improve your sourcing, tracking, and due diligence, visit https://synaptic.com/turpentine --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Every week investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Subscribe to “The Riff” with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg: https://link.chtbl.com/theriff RECOMMENDED PODCAST: LIVE PLAYERS Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today’s most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. You’ll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. LIsten and subscribe everywhere you get your podcasts: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers. --- Join our free newsletter to get Erik's top 3 insights from each episode every week: https://turpentinevc.substack.com/ --- LINKS: Seth's essay on Product-Led AI: https://greylock.com/greymatter/seth-rosenberg-product-led-ai/ --- RELATED SHOWS: If you like Turpentine VC, check out our show The Limited Partner with David Weisburd, where David talks to the investors behind the investors: https://link.chtbl.com/thelimitedpartner For more AI content, check out The Cognitive Revolution with Nathan Labenz, where Nathan covers the most pertinent AI updates in the industry with builders, investors, and more: https://link.chtbl.com/TheCognitiveRevolution --- X / TWITTER: @lessin (Sam) @SethGRosenberg (Seth) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @TurpentineVC --- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode preview (00:47) Seth's blog post on opportunities in AI (04:46) Sam's reaction to Seth's product-led AI thesis (9:58) Identifying outliers (12:29) What happening during the cloud, mobile, and AI tech waves (14:51) Sponsor: Synaptic (15:52) Why incumbents are incredibly well-positioned to add AI tools (19:08) The mobile tech wave and why incumbents won (21:59) The Uber of the AI era (26:11) New markets unlocked with AI (28:26) Defensibility of AI startups (32:28) Thoughts on Midjourney and Character AI (34:01) Closing remarks (37:26) ​​On copilots --- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at [email protected].