‘Earnings bubble’ meets geopolitical risk | Market Movements

SHARESIES · MARKET MOVEMENTS · 15 JULY 2026Laura Marwick & Jordan Cunningham, Sharesies Head of Data & Analytics Note: Filmed Tuesday 14 July ↑ WHAT’S UP — Meta surged 14.8% on plans to add 14 gigawatts of compute, driving the Nasdaq up 1.74% for its fourth gain in five weeks. SK Hynix's US debut raised US$26.5 billion, the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company. ↓ WHAT’S DOWN — The ASX 200 fell 0.4% to 8,806 as miners tumbled over 4%, while the Dow was  down 0.5% and Russell 2000 0.6%. ! BIGGEST SURPRISES — The RBNZ lifted the OCR 25bps to 2.5% — its first hike in three years — and signalled that more tightening is likely. Renewed US-Iran strikes pushed WTI crude up 4.3% and the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.57%. ◎ WHAT TO WATCH — US CPI lands Tuesday (est. 3.9% y/y), alongside new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony and big US bank earnings. ◈ BIGGER PICTURE — Analysts have unusually lifted S&P 500 earnings estimates into Q2 reporting season, stirring "earnings bubble" talk, while the US-Iran ceasefire looks fragile after fresh strikes. NZ's rate hike and improving PMI point to a Q3 recovery. Disclaimer: Sharesies Market Movements is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. This video is general market commentary and educational in nature. It is not financial advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is current at the time of recording and may be subject to change. We do not provide recommendations and nothing in this video should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. If you require personal financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions, including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers, are available on our relevant Australian or NZ website.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.