Economic Outlook and Recession Prediction - Jim Welsh #6143

Kerry Lutz and Jim Welsh discussed a range of topics related to the economy and the Federal Reserve's potential actions. They explored the concept of the neutral rate and its role in determining the restrictiveness of monetary policy, as well as the potential impact of interest rate cuts on the economy and stock market. Welsh provided a detailed analysis of the economy, predicting an upcoming recession based on indicators such as the diffusion index and monthly hours worked. The conversation also touched on the impact of AI on the economy and the energy industry, as well as the potential return to real value investing and the imminent secular bear market. Towards the end of the meeting, Lutz and Welsh discussed the recent trends in gold prices and the dollar, offering insights into the market sentiments and potential movements. They also briefly discussed Trump's decision to appoint Elon Musk to oversee the cost savings commission. Find Jim here: macrotides.com Find Kerry here: FSN and here: inflation.cafe This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit khlfsn.substack.com/subscribe