Economic Reality Check: The First 100 Days

Economic Reality Check Podcast NotesMarket Performance (Jan-Apr 2025)S&P 500 hit all-time high of 6,250 around inauguration (Jan 20)Since Feb 15: S&P down ~18% (bear market territory)$7+ trillion in market value erasedNasdaq down 22.3% from peakGradual decline unlike 2020 COVID crashBond Market Signals10-year Treasury yield: 4.2% → 3.4%2-year Treasury yield: 4.1% → 3.1%Flattening yield curve (recession indicator)Tariff Impact ("Tariffs 2.0")Universal 10% tariff on all importsTargeted tariffs: up to 60% on Chinese goods, 25% on Mexican/Canadian importsEstimated cost: $320 billion annually (~$2,400 per household)Walmart raised prices on 2,000+ items by avg 8.3%International ResponseChina: 25% avg tariffs on US exports (agriculture, aircraft, semiconductors)EU: Countermeasures on $40 billion of US goodsGoldman Sachs projection: Could reduce GDP growth by 1 percentage pointLabor Market DeclineMarch: First net job loss (-75,000) since pandemicUnemployment: 3.7% (Jan) → 4.2% (Mar)Q1 tech layoffs: 82,000+ totalAmazon: 10,000Microsoft: 8,000Meta: 7,000Other sectors affected:Ford: 4,500 jobs cut (citing tariff-related material costs)JPMorgan Chase: 3,200 positions eliminatedInflation ReversalCPI: 2.9% (Dec) → 3.5% (Mar)Food prices: +4.2% YoYApparel: +5.7% YoYBLS attributes increase to rising import prices from tariffsCreates Fed dilemma: cut rates to support growth or address rising inflationConsumer ResponseU. Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 79 (Jan) → 63.4 (Apr), 20% declineRetail sales: -0.8% (Feb), -1.2% (Mar)Target CEO: consumers "increasingly cautious and deliberate"McDonald's: first quarterly same-store sales decline in four yearsPrivate Credit Markets & TokenizationPrivate credit market: $1.5 trillion globally (25% YoY growth)65% of private loans originating outside traditional banking regulationsMajor players: Blackstone, Apollo, KKR, Ares (collectively manage $700B)Last 6 months: $43 billion of private credit tokenized on blockchain platformsDaily trading volume of tokenized credit assets: $150M (Jan) → $1.2B (Mar)72% of traditional investment bank executives "don't fully understand the mechanics"SEC launching task force to examine these marketsEconomic OutlookAdministration promised 4% annual GDP growthAtlanta Fed GDPNow tracking Q1 growth at just 1.2%Administration standing firm on tariffs, considering second round of tax cutsFed signaling readiness for further rate cuts if conditions deteriorateComing Next WeekDeep dive into housing market trendsCheck out my Top 100 Interview Questions eBook on Etsy!https://www.etsy.com/shop/Flexify2Downloads