Elections in the Air, Revolutions in Question: Israel Watches Gaza, Iran, and Washington

January 9, 2026 finds Israel in a familiar but unsettling posture: waiting. In this episode of Tel Aviv Diary, Marc Schulman surveys a region caught between ceasefire talk and battlefield reality—Gaza’s “stage two” remains opaque, Hamas appears financially entrenched through control and taxation of incoming goods, and the final unresolved issue of a captive’s remains hangs over the process as a warning from past agonizing precedents.On the northern front, the picture is similarly suspended. Hezbollah has been weakened and partially constrained, yet not decisively disarmed; Israeli strikes continue, but larger decisions are deferred as Jerusalem and its neighbors watch Iran. Marc explores the historical problem of predicting revolutions—how regimes fall (or don’t), what outsiders misunderstand, and why Iran’s trajectory could reshape the entire Middle East, from Hezbollah’s funding to future nuclear diplomacy and the region’s diplomatic alignments.The episode also flags a quiet but potentially consequential development: reports surrounding Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar’s visit to Somaliland and speculation about an Israeli military foothold near the Bab al-Mandab—an outpost that could matter for Red Sea security and future Houthi contingencies. At home, Israeli politics shifts toward election season, with the ultra-Orthodox draft and workforce participation debate at the center, and party primaries intensifying the country’s internal divisions. Marc then turns outward to U.S. politics—from Venezuela and the expanding reach of presidential power to the broader implications of force, norms, and precedent.January 9, 2026 finds Israel in a familiar but unsettling posture: waiting. In this episode of Tel Aviv Diary, Marc Schulman surveys a region caught between ceasefire talk and battlefield reality—Gaza’s “stage two” remains opaque, Hamas appears financially entrenched through control and taxation of incoming goods, and the final unresolved issue of a captive’s remains hangs over the process as a warning from past agonizing precedents.On the northern front, the picture is similarly suspended. Hezbollah has been weakened and partially constrained, yet not decisively disarmed; Israeli strikes continue, but larger decisions are deferred as Jerusalem and its neighbors watch Iran. Marc explores the historical problem of predicting revolutions—how regimes fall (or don’t), what outsiders misunderstand, and why Iran’s trajectory could reshape the entire Middle East, from Hezbollah’s funding to future nuclear diplomacy and the region’s diplomatic alignments.The episode also flags a quiet but potentially consequential development: reports surrounding Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar’s visit to Somaliland and speculation about an Israeli military foothold near the Bab al-Mandab—an outpost that could matter for Red Sea security and future Houthi contingencies. At home, Israeli politics shifts toward election season, with the ultra-Orthodox draft and workforce participation debate at the center, and party primaries intensifying the country’s internal divisions. Marc then turns outward to U.S. politics—from Venezuela and the expanding reach of presidential power to the broader implications of force, norms, and precedent. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit marcschulman.substack.com/subscribe