Eli Lilly (LLY) Drops 14% After Q2 2025 Earnings – Opportunity or Warning Sign?

Hey Wealth Dome readers,Eli Lilly (LLY) just dropped a bombshell—both good and bad. The Q2 2025 earnings were stellar on paper, yet the market punished the stock with a 14% post-earnings sell-off. Let's dive into the key metrics, chart analysis, sentiment, and my short-, medium-, and long-term price predictions.🧾 Earnings Highlights – Q2 2025* Revenue: $15.6 billion (+38% YoY)* Non-GAAP EPS: $6.31 (+61% YoY)* Full-year guidance: $60B–$62BStar products Mounjaro and Zepbound continue to drive growth, but the market reaction tells a different story...❌ Why Did Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Crash?The sell-off was triggered by disappointment in the oral version of its GLP-1 weight loss drug, Orforglipron, which showed only 11.5% placebo-adjusted weight loss, lagging behind Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) injectable alternatives (14–15%).Investor sentiment tanked due to:* Weaker-than-expected weight-loss results* Concerns over long-term efficacy* Skittishness from a previously overbought chart📉 Chart & Technical AnalysisCurrent Price: ~$633RSI: 25 (deeply oversold)Major Moving Averages: Below 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day MAsKey Resistance Levels:* $680–$700 (23.6% Fibonacci)* $750 (38.2% Fibonacci)* $800 (50% Fibonacci)If these levels break, we could see LLY either bounce or enter a multi-year correction.📈 Price Predictions (Not Financial Advice)Short-Term (1–4 weeks): Rebound to $680–$700Medium-Term (1–3 months): Range-bound between $650–$760Long-Term: Only bullish if $800 level is retested and held. Be cautious if 200-day MA breaks on the 5Y chart.⚠️ Final ThoughtsWhile earnings are strong, sentiment rules the short-term game. Orforglipron’s underwhelming results have spooked investors, despite LLY’s solid fundamentals.Personally, I’m not bullish on the stock, but I’ll share any trades I make in the Weekend Edition. Stay cautious out there.—Noble B.M.I protect wealth. This is Wealth Town.🔗 Mentioned Links* Eli Lilly (LLY) IR Page* Mounjaro Drug Info* Zepbound Drug Info* Orforglipron Overview This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit norbertbm.substack.com/subscribe