Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis

More earnings analysis: https://betafinch.comGroups: PHARMA (https://betafinch.com/groups/PHARMA)──────────ALEX: Welcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown! Today we're digging into Eli Lilly's Q2 2026 results, and Jordan, I'll just say it up front — this was a big one.JORDAN: Big is an understatement. But before we get into the numbers, our standard reminder: this podcast is AI-generated content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.ALEX: Right, with that said — let's talk numbers. Lilly's revenue grew 48% year-over-year in Q2. Their key products alone added almost $6.8 billion, and get this — oncology, immunology, and neuroscience combined grew 121% versus last year.JORDAN: That's a company firing on basically every cylinder. And the incretin franchise — Zepbound and Mounjaro — is still the engine room. Combined, those two brought in $14.9 billion in the quarter, contributing $6.3 billion of the total growth.ALEX: Gross margin ticked up to 86.3%, non-GAAP EPS came in at $8.38 — though that includes a $3.03 hit from acquired R&D charges, so the underlying number is even stronger. And naturally, they raised full-year guidance: revenue now expected between $85 and $87 billion.JORDAN: Which, by the way, is up $3 billion at the low end and $2 billion at the high end from prior guidance. That's not a small tweak — that's a company that's genuinely outperforming its own expectations.ALEX: Let's talk geography for a second, because the international story here is wild. China revenue grew 93% in constant currency. Rest of world — think Latin America, Asia — grew 136%. Lilly's international incretin market share is now around 55% globally.JORDAN: And this is the piece I think investors sometimes underweight — Mounjaro's global rollout is still in relatively early innings in a lot of these markets. Management basically said future growth outside the U.S. is going to come from market penetration, not just new country launches, since most of the big launch wave already happened last year.ALEX: Which actually ties into one of the more interesting analyst questions on the call — someone pushed back on guidance, basically asking "wait, doesn't this guide imply deceleration versus Q2?" And CFO Lucas Montarce had a pretty candid answer.JORDAN: Yeah, he pointed to a few real factors — there were some one-time favorable adjustments to rebate and discount estimates this quarter that won't repeat, last year's back half had a huge bolus of new-market Mounjaro launches that's now lapped, and there's normal seasonality — European summer holidays hit Q3, and diabetes has its own seasonal pattern in Q4. So it's less "conservative sandbagging" and more "the comp gets harder."ALEX: Fair enough. Now let's talk about the newer story here — Foundayo, their oral GLP-1. The U.S. launch has been a bit of a slow burn, but management said they're now seeing real inflection. Prescriber count went from 8,000 last quarter to 36,000 now, and the last week of July nearly doubled monthly volume.JORDAN: The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Program is a big deal too — it launched July 1st and gives 20 million eligible Americans coverage for obesity GLP-1s at just $50 a month out-of-pocket. That's a 35% expansion in coverage overnight. Early signs are heavily skewed toward injectables — about 80% — but they're seeing real new-patient uptake on both fronts.ALEX: And internationally, the UAE numbers turned heads — $31 million in Foundayo sales in a single quarter, which is nearly half of total U.S. sales. One analyst flagged that as a signal of "explosive potential" once Foundayo rolls out more broadly, which management confirmed is coming mostly in 2027.JORDAN: On the pipeline side, retatrutide is the one to watch. Three positive Phase III trials — TRIUMPH-1, 2,This episode includes AI-generated content.