Energy rebates, rental subsidies won't stoke inflation – Treasurer Jim Chalmers's biggest budget bet

Jim Chalmers calls this Budget "responsible and restrained" – to ease cost of living pressures while investing in the hallmark "Future Made in Australia". But it also walks a fine line between charting Australia's economic destiny and helping households doing it tough – with the challenge of not stoking inflation. So .. will energy rebates for all households and some small businesses of $3.5 billion .. cheaper medicines on the PBS .. and rental subsidies inflame rather than tame inflation if people have more money in their pockets and decide to spend rather than save? Johnathan McMenamin is senior economist at Barrenjoey Capital says this Budget strikes the balance. Consumer spending is set to remain weak .. though this budget is betting on a recovery in real incomes .. though "significant uncertainty" remains about a bounce back .. with no guarantee of interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank. Having posted a $9.3 billion surplus .. the budget forecasts deepening deficits.. peaking at a much higher next year at $42.8 billion .. as stage 3 tax cuts, cost of living relief and unavoidable spending rolls out. With the surplus based on windfall tax from low unemployment and still-high commodity prices .. is this budget based on more on good luck than good planning?